mayoclinic

The college season is done and the deadline for juniors to declare has passed. Here's my first mock FA and draft.

Assumptions:

1. Pats believe that Tom Brady is likely to come back for 2009.
2. Pats DO NOT trade DE Richard Seymour unless someone is willing to give them a 1st round pick (which is possible, given that Jason Taylor was traded for a 2nd round pick).
3. Pats are reasonably confident that they will be able to extend DT Vince Wilfork.
4. Pats get 3rd round comp pick for Asante Samuel and 4th/5th round comp pick for Randall Gay.

Needs:

- Major/short-term: CB (Hobbs a FA after 2009; Wheatley/Wilhite still not proven); S (Harrison at or near retirement, Sanders/Williams FAs); ILB (Bruschi/Seau at/near retirement, need complement to Mayo/Guyton); OLB (Vrabel a part-time player or near retirement, need more aggressive pass rush); ROT (need Kaczur upgrade).
- Minor/longer term: RB (RB by committee effective but no clear #1 and Maroney still unproven); third receiving option; TE (Watson a FA after 2009 and Thomas still unproven); OG (Mankins a FA after 2009; Neal effective but aging and injury prone); DE (Wright a FA, Seymour/Green FAs after 2009); DT (backup for Wilfork); P (Hanson adequate but not great).

Overall plan:

- Resign key personnel wherever reasonable. Address ROT and CB in FA to bring in veterans who can plug wholes immediately. If possible, bring in one reasonably priced TE/WR option. Where unable to resign our own FAs for reasonable $$, target cost-effective outside alternatives.
- Prioritize building an intimidating, attacking, disruptive, opportunistic defense. Current approach is too permissive/reactive.

Details:

1. Franchise Matt Cassel and trade him to Detroit for 1(20) + conditional 2010 pick (3rd -> 1st depending on performance and results). Franchise as insurance against Brady comeback and to get value for him. Trade when it becomes apparent Brady is recovering well. Detroit has 2 first round picks, so trading for Cassel would give them a QB ready to play and allow them room to address their other main needs. Equally possible would be trades to Tampa Bay for 1(19) or Minnesota for 1(22). With only Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez as likely first round QBs there is not much to choose from and someone will miss out unless they roll the dice on Cassel.

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

3. Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (Buffalo; 26, 5'10" 180#). Buffalo has McKelvin developing, freeing up Greer. Solid upgrade over ONeal. Core of Greer/Hobbs/Wheatley/Wilhite would be solid. Guards against Hobbs becoming FA in 2009. Doesn't break bank. Other options include Dunta Robinson (Houston), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh) and Kelvin Haden (Indianapolis). Richard Marshall (RFA, Carolina) and Carlos Rogers (Washington) would likely require giving up draft picks or trading.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009.

5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

6. Resign Jabar Gaffney WR OR sign a relatively inexpensive UFA WR such as Devery Henderson (NO) or Reggie Williams (Jacksonville). I'm fine with Gaffney, who sounds like he wants to come back, but there should be reasonable alternatives available.

7. Resign Lewis Sanders S AND James Sanders S OR Tank Williams S OR sign UFA Sean Jones S (Cleveland). Only Meriweather is under contract. Rodney is probably done. We need 4 safeties, and plan to draft one, leaving a need for 2. Lewis Sanders is probably the most versatile of the 3 Pats FAs (can play CB as well), was playing well at the end of 2008, and is probably the cheapest and easiest to resign. Could resign James Sanders if reasonable $$ or go with an outside FA of comparable value. Williams is uncertain after his injury, and could be brought back if unable to sign or draft a fourth safety.

8. Release or do not resign Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Deltha ONeal CB, Roosevelt Colvin ILB, Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Wesley Britt OT, Ryan O'Callaghan OT/G, Dan Connely OT, Billy Yates G, Lamont Jordan RB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Antwai Spann WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR, Tyson DeVree TE. Harrison is a god but is too old and injury prone. Seau is an option if Bruschi retires, but otherwise can be kept on the shadow roster for insurance while he surfs. Colvin hasn't shown much since his injury, and needs to make room for youth. Jordan would be great to keep, but will probably be too expensive. The rest are just JAGs.

9. Restructure Mike Vrabel and Stephen Neal if possible. Vrabel is fading fast but still offers leadership and experience. Neal is injury prone and aging. Signing Gross allows Kaczur to move to RG if Neal can't be resigned for less. Restructuing both frees up some needed $$ for FA.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. I see Woods and Vince Redd fighting it out for the last OLB spot and Evans and Law Firm fighting it out for the last RB spot.

2009 Draft:

1(22): Sean Smith, S/CB (Utah) - 6'3", 215#, 4.44. Smith is large and fast with great range and could play both CB and S. William Moore could also be a potential pick here.

<TRADE: NE Trades 1(23) + 2(57) to the New York Giants for 1(29) and 2(44). This is not strictly necessary, but I could easily see us trading down in the first (particularly if we get a second first round pick for Cassel) to move up in the second because this draft is so deep.>

1(29): Paul Kruger, DE/OLB (Utah) - 6'3", 265#, 4.68. Kruger is mature, has a non-stop motor, and is a high character guy. He has some experience covering the TE as a DE. He is reminiscent of Jared Allen (whom BB was rumored to love last year), and has the athleticism, intelligence and intensity to play the elephant and replace Mike Vrabel at OLB. Other options would include Michael Johnson, Aaron Maybin, and Cliff Sintim.

2(44): Connor Barwin, DE/LB (Cincinnati)- 6'3", 255#, 4.64. Perfect Pats-type player. Versatile - played TE, DE/OLB in college, can probably move inside and play SILB to complement Mayo. As a former tight end, could double on offense, and also has good hands and coverage ability. Trio of Mayo/Barwin/Guyton would give the Pats a great young nucleus at ILB for years to come. Could also cover OLB. Very high motor - never lets up. A bit reminiscent of David Pollack. High character player. Still developing, with very high upside. Clint Sintim (see above) would also be a possibility here if he falls, as someone able to play both 3-4 OLB and SILB. I think Barwin has more upside. Karlos Dansby (UFA, Arizona) would make a great SILB complement to Mayo if we went the FA route (instead of Jordan Gross, and used this pick on an OT such as William Beatty from Connecticut), but the price would be high and there is a lot of talent in the draft.

2(47): Alex Mack, OG/C (Cal) - 6'4", 314#, 5.12. Another perfect Pats-type player who falls to the mid-second round because of a perceived lack of athleticism. Highly intelligent, high motor player who could back up OG and upgrade center, where Koppen has been overmatched against powerful DTs.

3(86): Devin Moore, RB (Wyoming) - 5'10#, 191#, 4.40. Darren Sproles type all-purpose threat.

3(97): Jarett Dillard, WR (Rice) - 5'11", 185#, 4.50. Greg Jennings type wide receive who falls to 3rd round because of talented WR class plus lack of size and timed speed. Precise route runner, good hands, productive. Great Shrine game practices.

4(122): Ken Huber, P (Cincinnati) - 6'1", 22-#, 4.85. Best punter in nation, gives us a Mike Scifres type of punter as a major upgrade from Hanson. Particularly good at pinning opponents insidethe 20.

4(comp): BPA, ideally 3-4 DT candidate to backup Vince. I could also seeing us take Huber here and trading our 4th round pick along with other considerations to move up into the third round and grab an NT backup such as Terrance Taylor (Michigan).

The remaining picks can be used for trading (up or into 2010) or to pick up practice squad material, as there will be no room on the roster.


2009 roster:

QB (3): TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
RB (5): LMaroney, SMorris, KFaulk, DMoore, HEvans
WR (5): RMoss, WWelker, JGaffney, JDillard, KWashington
TE (3): ODaniels, BWatson, DThomas
OT (4): JGross, MLight, MLevoir, NKaczur
OG/C (5): LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, AMack, RHochstein

DT (3): VWilfork, LSmith, <draftee>
DE (4): RSeymour, TWarren, MWright/CCanty, JGreen
OLB (5): AThomas, MVrabel, PKruger, SCrable, VRedd/PWoods
ILB (4): JMayo, GGuyton, CBarwin, TBruschi
S (4): BMeriweather, SSmith, JSanders/SJones, LSanders
CB (5): EHobbs, JGreer, TWheatley, GWilhite, +1

P: KHuber
K: SGostkowski
LS: LPaxton

If someone can eventually take over LS from Paxton I could see opening up a 6th WR spot.

Thoughts?

ScottLK

A 4th on a punter? I don't like your draft picks in general. Players should be seniors and have enough quality competition on tape to make a judgement. That means that Will Moore should be taken. A safety that projects to CB = TeBucky Jones.

We should stay out of Free Agency. We can draft another RT instead of paying Gross. We need two WRs to be developed within the system. Moss may be here for no more than two years. Gaffney will take playing time from the new WRs.

DocE

[QUOTE=mayoclinic;1252582]The college season is done and the deadline for juniors to declare has passed. Here's my first mock FA and draft.

Assumptions:

1. Pats believe that Tom Brady is likely to come back for 2009.
2. Pats DO NOT trade DE Richard Seymour unless someone is willing to give them a 1st round pick (which is possible, given that Jason Taylor was traded for a 2nd round pick).
3. Pats are reasonably confident that they will be able to extend DT Vince Wilfork.
4. Pats get 3rd round comp pick for Asante Samuel and 4th/5th round comp pick for Randall Gay.
I hope all your assumptions are correct as these would all be good events for the Patriots.

Needs:

- Major/short-term: CB (Hobbs a FA after 2009; Wheatley/Wilhite still not proven); S (Harrison at or near retirement, Sanders/Williams FAs); ILB (Bruschi/Seau at/near retirement, need complement to Mayo/Guyton); OLB (Vrabel a part-time player or near retirement, need more aggressive pass rush); ROT (need Kaczur upgrade).
- Minor/longer term: RB (RB by committee effective but no clear #1 and Maroney still unproven); third receiving option; TE (Watson a FA after 2009 and Thomas still unproven); OG (Mankins a FA after 2009; Neal effective but aging and injury prone); DE (Wright a FA, Seymour/Green FAs after 2009); DT (backup for Wilfork); P (Hanson adequate but not great).

I am closer to your line of thinking here than some other posters that I also respect. I think the defense needs some significant changes. I would be happy if they could upgrade at 2 positions defensively and get by with what they have at the other 2. EX Vrabel and Sanders start, but upgrades are found at CB and SILB. As long as they upgrade at CB and one other spot on D, I think they can contend next year.
Overall plan:

- Resign key personnel wherever reasonable. Address ROT and CB in FA to bring in veterans who can plug wholes immediately. If possible, bring in one reasonably priced TE/WR option. Where unable to resign our own FAs for reasonable $$, target cost-effective outside alternatives.
- Prioritize building an intimidating, attacking, disruptive, opportunistic defense. Current approach is too permissive/reactive

1. Franchise Matt Cassel and trade him to Detroit for 1(20) + conditional 2010 pick (3rd -> 1st depending on performance and results). Franchise as insurance against Brady comeback and to get value for him. Trade when it becomes apparent Brady is recovering well. Detroit has 2 first round picks, so trading for Cassel would give them a QB ready to play and allow them room to address their other main needs. Equally possible would be trades to Tampa Bay for 1(19) or Minnesota for 1(22). With only Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez as likely first round QBs there is not much to choose from and someone will miss out unless they roll the dice on Cassel.

Very realistic trade scenarios a first this year and a conditional pick depending on performance next year seems logical

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

I don't see this happening as Gross will be the most coveted OT on the market. I am not a big Kaczur fan, but I see him as a guy you can win with at RT if you are solid in other areas. Khalif Barnes has really regressed the past two years and Jax is looking to upgrade from him, so I doubt the Pats want him as a starter. If the Pats were able to bring in a FA who will command the contract Gross will, I would hope it would be a defender.

3. Sign UFA CB Jabari Greer (Buffalo; 26, 5'10" 180#). Buffalo has McKelvin developing, freeing up Greer. Solid upgrade over ONeal. Core of Greer/Hobbs/Wheatley/Wilhite would be solid. Guards against Hobbs becoming FA in 2009. Doesn't break bank. Other options include Dunta Robinson (Houston), Bryant McFadden (Pittsburgh) and Kelvin Haden (Indianapolis). Richard Marshall (RFA, Carolina) and Carlos Rogers (Washington) would likely require giving up draft picks or trading.

I think an experienced CB is a must this offseason, so I am right with you here. Richard Marshall is not an RFA, but he will be a UFA in 2010. I just read today that the Panthers will likely part ways with Ken Lucas due to his age and contract size. Lucas and Chris McAlister seem like they might both be available and either would be interesting options at cheap enough prices, but less so than Greer or my favorite Ronald Bartell. I'd be interested in Carlos Rogers depending on the price...he played great to start the year and then fell off. If the Patriots add a quality CB and Wheatley or Wilhite comes on, that CB situation starts to look nice.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009

Daniels is an RFA not a UFA and I see him getting a first round tender from Houston, so he's not an option.


5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

Canty will likely get a big FA contract he's 26 and has started every game for 3 years for Dallas. I have seen him rated as the 3rd best FA DE. He is going to start wherever he ends up.

6. Resign Jabar Gaffney WR OR sign a relatively inexpensive UFA WR such as Devery Henderson (NO) or Reggie Williams (Jacksonville). I'm fine with Gaffney, who sounds like he wants to come back, but there should be reasonable alternatives available.

I'd love to upgrade at the 3rd WR spot as it's a starting postion on the Patriots. That said, it's a weak year for FA's at the position and a rookie would have a tough time learning the system well enough to be a starter. I think re-signing Gaffney makes the most sense unless a veteran wants to come try to win a ring on a small contract (ex Torry Holt if he gets cut)

7. Resign Lewis Sanders S AND James Sanders S OR Tank Williams S OR sign UFA Sean Jones S (Cleveland). Only Meriweather is under contract. Rodney is probably done. We need 4 safeties, and plan to draft one, leaving a need for 2. Lewis Sanders is probably the most versatile of the 3 Pats FAs (can play CB as well), was playing well at the end of 2008, and is probably the cheapest and easiest to resign. Could resign James Sanders if reasonable $$ or go with an outside FA of comparable value. Williams is uncertain after his injury, and could be brought back if unable to sign or draft a fourth safety.

I agree that we need 3 safeties, I am not against bringing Rodney back to play a limited role depending on who else is added or re-signed. There are some interesting RFA safeties who could be targeted if they don't get first round tenders: Jarrad Page of the Chiefs, Dawan Landry of Baltimore, and Atari Bigby or Green Bay...one of those 3 might be worth a 2nd round pick to acquire

DocE

8. Release or do not resign Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Deltha ONeal CB, Roosevelt Colvin ILB, Larry Izzo ILB, Eric Alexander ILB, Wesley Britt OT, Ryan O'Callaghan OT/G, Dan Connely OT, Billy Yates G, Lamont Jordan RB, Sam Aiken WR, Ray Ventrone WR, Antwai Spann WR, Matt Slater WR/S/KR, Tyson DeVree TE. Harrison is a god but is too old and injury prone. Seau is an option if Bruschi retires, but otherwise can be kept on the shadow roster for insurance while he surfs. Colvin hasn't shown much since his injury, and needs to make room for youth. Jordan would be great to keep, but will probably be too expensive. The rest are just JAGs.

You've got to have some guys contribute who are minimum salary type players. I think Ventrone and Aiken both are valuable special teamers and should be back. Slater is on 5th round rookie contract and has played both offense and defense and should have a good shot to make the team again in camp. I'd like to be able to move on from Izzo, but I trust BB there. O'Callaghan should get a shot to come back from his injury, remember the OL retreads we had to sign to get through last camp? DeVree showed enough to make Dave Thomas inactive once, so he should come to camp.

9. Restructure Mike Vrabel and Stephen Neal if possible. Vrabel is fading fast but still offers leadership and experience. Neal is injury prone and aging. Signing Gross allows Kaczur to move to RG if Neal can't be resigned for less. Restructuing both frees up some needed $$ for FA.

Not sure Kaczur has the movement skills to play Neal's RG position. I think Jarvis Green is the most likely restructure candidate on the roster. I am not sure that I agree that Vrabel is fading fast.

10. Minor resignings: Heath Evans, Pierre Woods. I see Woods and Vince Redd fighting it out for the last OLB spot and Evans and Law Firm fighting it out for the last RB spot.

I like a lot of your picks right now, but I am not married to anyone yet. I do worry about Smith's size as the only successful 6'3 CB I can think of was Bobby Taylor. I believe Smith is only a one year full time starter as well. It will be interesting to see how he performs in the agility drills compared to his shorter peers. I had to cut your mock draft out of my post to save space.

2009 roster:

QB (3): TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
RB (5): LMaroney, SMorris, KFaulk, DMoore, HEvans
WR (5): RMoss, WWelker, JGaffney, JDillard, KWashington
TE (3): ODaniels, BWatson, DThomas
OT (4): JGross, MLight, MLevoir, NKaczur
OG/C (5): LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, AMack, RHochstein

DT (3): VWilfork, LSmith, <draftee>
DE (4): RSeymour, TWarren, MWright/CCanty, JGreen
OLB (5): AThomas, MVrabel, PKruger, SCrable, VRedd/PWoods
ILB (4): JMayo, GGuyton, CBarwin, TBruschi
S (4): BMeriweather, SSmith, JSanders/SJones, LSanders
CB (5): EHobbs, JGreer, TWheatley, GWilhite, +1

P: KHuber
K: SGostkowski
LS: LPaxton

If someone can eventually take over LS from Paxton I could see opening up a 6th WR spot.

Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

I'd be very happy with a roster like this going in to '09, but I don't think it's realistic given the Patriots cap space and free agent history. If the Patriots make 1 or 2 of the FA signings you suggest and end up with 6 or more picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft, I'd feel great going in to camp. This was a fun post to read and I realize it must have taken you a ton of time.

mayoclinic

The last 2 top rated punters were Adam Podlesh and Daniel Sepulveda. Podlesh went 101 (4th round, 2nd pick, to Jacksonville) and Sepulveda 112 (13th pick, to Pittsburgh), so I assumed that if we really want to go after a top punter we will need to be similarly aggressive. Some posters have gone so far as to suggest that we target Shane Lechler from Oakland in FA. Spending a 4th round on a top punting prospect would certainly be cheaper and easier.

The only 2 non-seniors I have listed are the 2 players from Utah. Connor Barwin, Alex Mack, Devin Moore, Jarrett Dillard and Huber are all seniors. I certainly want more value than "Tebucky Jones" with our first round pick. I'd be fine with Will Moore, but right now he may be more uncertain than Sean Smith - he could easily go top 20, or 2nd-3rd round depending on how he works out. Smith and Kruger are likely to be fast risers. Draftdaddy has Kruger going 30 in their first round draft today, and NationalFootball Post had Smith going 26 in their last mock, so I don't think either is totally unreasonable. If you prefer to substitute William Moore and Cliff Sintim based on experience I'd be fine with that.

We have only so many draft spots. I assume we may draft one second WR this year, and another next year. I'd love to draft 2 WRs and an OT (and address all our other needs in the draft) but we have other needs and a limited number of choices, and my draft has assumed that rebuilding the defense is a priority. That may not be the way BB goes, but I don't think it's totally unreasonable. We got aggressive in FA 2 years ago to address needs, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do so again. I don't see us going crazy over FAs, but I do see us resigning some of our own, replacing them with comparable talent if they can't be reasonably resigned, and targetting a few key needs. I've chosen OT and CB is my FA target areas in order to focus on other areas in the draft, but we could certainly go a different direction.

Thanks for your thoughts.

mayoclinic

DocE, thanks for your thoughtful comments. I am working today, and will try to post replies tonight.

I based my FA list off of footballsfuture.com, which lists Owen Daniels as an UFA. If he is truly an RFA then that would certainly change things and make him not an option.

Clonamery

Yeah, Daniels is a RFA. Even as an UFA I see him as too expensive.

__________________
Paul Brown: A winner never whines.

Clonamery

Oh, fantastic detail and thoughtful post. I think I agree with most of Doce's points, especially on OUR JAG's. I like the positions you want to draft more than the players but pre-combine it's just a Christmas wish-list, so be it.

Thanks again for the post.

__________________
Paul Brown: A winner never whines.

dryheat44

I'm very appreciative of the thought and time spent doing this. I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but that's irrelevant, as long as you can justify it.

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

mayoclinic

As mentioned above, I would be happy with William Moore at 20-23 in the 1st. I had originally put him in my mock, but at this point it seems like there is a 33% chance he will go top 20, a 33% chance he will fall out of the 1st round entirely, and a 33% chance he will fall around where we pick. I thought the Sean Smith pick would stimulate more controversy, as it did. Nnamdi Asomugha is 6'2" 210# and he seems to be able to cover ok.

I personally see Smith as primarily a S who can also play some CB and can cover big receivers such as TO, Plaxico Burress, etc. For a pure CB I would like DJ Moore from Vanderbilt, but I personally see him going top 20. Moore also has KR and WR versatility. Vontae Davis could potentially fall into the 20's if DJ Moore and Sean Smith rise, but I'm not a big fan of his - all world talent but inconsistent results, which seems to run in the family.

Footballs Future has their list of declared underclassmen with draft projections out today, and lists Smith as a 1st round pick. They note: "Smith will be the most intriguing prospect coming out this season. At cornerback, he’s a giant at 6’3, 210. What’s more intriguing is that he’s reportedly running a 4.3 or 4.4 40. At his height, short area quickness will become an immediate question, but should he not test well there, he’ll be an easy transition to safety. Smith has the on-field ability to equal his combination of size and speed and is a projected first round selection." I guess I could live with that, at least at this early stage of things. I'm also not married to anyone (though Connor Barwin is my binky), but I tried to list picks whom I thought would be provocative and worth putting on people's radar instead of some of just the same old names.