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Old 01-14-2009, 09:51 AM   #11
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metaphors View Post
Is it really? I'll buy the Pat Hill connection since relatively few players are drafted from that conference. But Ferentz coaches in the Big Ten and Meyer coaches in the SEC. Regardless of the coaches involved, the Pats are going to get a significant number of their players from these conferences. Add in Weis and the ND links to the PAC Ten and you have almost half the BCS schools covered by these 3 coaches.

So the point is that about half the Pats rookie players come from the SEC, Big Ten, Notre Dame, USC and UCLA. Not that surprising. I'm sure Belichick uses coaching contacts to help make draft decisions and discover players his scouts may have missed...but outside of Pat Hill I don't see any broad influence.
I guess what we need to know is the percentage of all draftees who fit this description to compare. But no, I'm not volunteering to calculate.
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Old 01-14-2009, 10:25 AM   #12
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams View Post
Both Saban and Myer have not been in place long enough for guys that they recruited to come through Florida and Alabama. So picks from these schools may start coming. Of course both of the are in the premier conference in college football (I'm assuming that nobody wants to debate this fact with me, but if you disagree, feel free) the SEC. So having two sets of eyes in the SEC, and one an offensive coach, and the other a defensive guy, is got to be a great asssistance to the Pats scouting.

I'm very excited about Whilite, I thought that he got better by leaps and bounds every game he played. He was pretty good at Auburn, but maybe BB got some insight on him from Meyer, Saban or both. I thought that Mayo would be a good player, but I never thought that he would be "this good", plus the Pats got what they needed out of the first round of the draft and picked up some extra picks by trading down a few slots. But anyway you cut it the SEC guys, were far and above the rest of the draft class.
Interesting take, good points.
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Old 01-14-2009, 10:36 AM   #13
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

Quote:
Originally Posted by patchick View Post
I guess what we need to know is the percentage of all draftees who fit this description to compare. But no, I'm not volunteering to calculate.
Last years 1st round picks per confrence:

2008

ACC-8
PAC10-6
Big10-5
SEC-5
Other-4
BigEast-2
WAC-1

2007
SEC-11
ACC=6
BIG10-6
BIG12-4
BIGEAST-2
PAC10-1
Other-2

2006
ACC-12
PAC10-4
BIG10-8
SEC-4
BIG12-3
Other-1
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Old 01-14-2009, 10:39 AM   #14
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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Originally Posted by DaBruinz View Post
Fresno State plays SMU every year, hence Justin Rogers. Fresno State played Colorado (Graham) in 2001 and Colorado State (Oldenburg) in 2001, 2002, and 2003.

I think that 56% is a bit more than a coincidence.
Ah okay, I thought you were just doing the analysis based on in conference opponents. This makes it even more detailed.

I see Graham and Oldenburg played Pat Hill, but not Rogers:
SMU Football :: SMUMUSTANGS.COM - The Official Site of SMU Athletics
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Old 01-14-2009, 11:15 AM   #15
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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Originally Posted by FreeTedWilliams View Post
Last years 1st round picks per confrence:
Dude! Sick research!
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Old 01-14-2009, 11:55 AM   #16
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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Originally Posted by WhiZa View Post
Ah okay, I thought you were just doing the analysis based on in conference opponents. This makes it even more detailed.

I see Graham and Oldenburg played Pat Hill, but not Rogers:
SMU Football :: SMUMUSTANGS.COM - The Official Site of SMU Athletics
I have to stand corrected. 2003 and 2004, SMU and Fresno State played. Both those years, Rogers was at SMU. Its only been recently that SMU and Fresno State stopped playing one another as they played each other every year from 2000 to 2004.
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Old 01-14-2009, 12:27 PM   #17
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

Quote:
Originally Posted by Metaphors View Post
Is it really? I'll buy the Pat Hill connection since relatively few players are drafted from that conference. But Ferentz coaches in the Big Ten and Meyer coaches in the SEC. Regardless of the coaches involved, the Pats are going to get a significant number of their players from these conferences. Add in Weis and the ND links to the PAC Ten and you have almost half the BCS schools covered by these 3 coaches.

So the point is that about half the Pats rookie players come from the SEC, Big Ten, Notre Dame, USC and UCLA. Not that surprising. I'm sure Belichick uses coaching contacts to help make draft decisions and discover players his scouts may have missed...but outside of Pat Hill I don't see any broad influence.
I tend to agree. For example, Yes, since Fresno St. played Colorado one year, maybe BB asked Hill for his impressions, but is he going to let a coach who played the player one year significantly alter his opinion? And is Hill's impression going to be anything that can't be picked up on film?

I think that the second degree of separation touches 57% of draft picks isn't really extraordinary...or unusual. Most NFL teams probably have a like figure.

Now, I'm not out-of-hand dismissing this. Obviously a guy like Saban who not only plays against most of the SEC every year and probably watches every SEC game on film, but likely recruited a lot of the players who he's going up against, will have a lot of information about some players....going back to high school. But let's not contaminate the discussion by bringing in players whom a "BB" coach happened to play against once in a non-conference matchup.

This exercise also assumes that we wouldn't have drafted Mayo or Wilhite if they didn't play against Saban-coached teams, and that Saban convinced BB he should draft them. I don't think we can say that.
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Old 01-14-2009, 12:36 PM   #18
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

How about a list of schools that played Fresno State, Iowa, Alabama, Notre Dame, or Florida in 2008 where there are at least 2+ schools matching coached against. I wish I had the time to do it myself.
I'm thinking it may give us a better picture of what schools BB will be tracking most predraft.
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Old 01-14-2009, 02:31 PM   #19
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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For example, Yes, since Fresno St. played Colorado one year, maybe BB asked Hill for his impressions, but is he going to let a coach who played the player one year significantly alter his opinion?
dryheat. It's called input. From coaches whose opinions BB trusts, rather than some coach giving BB a line of bs so his player will get drafted. And some of these coaches (not all), have coached in the Belichick system. In technical lingo, they're able to communicate whether or not 'player A' would fit in the Pats system. Pat Hill and Saban are good examples. Sure Hill only played Colorado once, but that was Daniel Graham's Mackey award winning season, and Hill was BB's TE coach at Cleveland. Chances are, Hill was speaking to BB as a TE coach -- not as Hill the HC. Same would apply to Oldenburg. Hill not only played Colorado St twice, but as the former OL coach for BB, he knows a thing or two about OT prospects.

We all know the Saban history by now. But BB's relationship with Nick extends beyond similar defensive schemes. They both seek out similar players. Character, coachability, size to play the position, are all qualities they both look for.

Quote:
And is Hill's impression going to be anything that can't be picked up on film?
BB doesn't tell his scouts and coaches, "Skip scouting the conference, I'll just give Pat Hill a call."

Seriously, these connections are just part of a much larger process, and an effort by BB in covering all of the bases on a player. But some of these connections are rooted in trust, and in some cases -- friendships. And awaiting, lie opinions BB is more apt to respect than not.
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Old 01-14-2009, 07:12 PM   #20
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Default Re: Analysis of "pipeline" picks - Updated

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dryheat. It's called input. From coaches whose opinions BB trusts, rather than some coach giving BB a line of bs so his player will get drafted. And some of these coaches (not all), have coached in the Belichick system. In technical lingo, they're able to communicate whether or not 'player A' would fit in the Pats system. Pat Hill and Saban are good examples. Sure Hill only played Colorado once, but that was Daniel Graham's Mackey award winning season, and Hill was BB's TE coach at Cleveland. Chances are, Hill was speaking to BB as a TE coach -- not as Hill the HC. Same would apply to Oldenburg. Hill not only played Colorado St twice, but as the former OL coach for BB, he knows a thing or two about OT prospects.

We all know the Saban history by now. But BB's relationship with Nick extends beyond similar defensive schemes. They both seek out similar players. Character, coachability, size to play the position, are all qualities they both look for.

BB doesn't tell his scouts and coaches, "Skip scouting the conference, I'll just give Pat Hill a call."

Seriously, these connections are just part of a much larger process, and an effort by BB in covering all of the bases on a player. But some of these connections are rooted in trust, and in some cases -- friendships. And awaiting, lie opinions BB is more apt to respect than not.
You're not wrong.

My point was that if you have that list of five or six coaches, times 10-13 games played, times 3-5 years, you could probably cover about two-thirds of the D1 eligibles. I think we're reaching here in some cases that player A was drafted largely because coach A, who is Belichick's friend, played against him.
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