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Old 09-20-2008, 05:23 PM   #31
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

Watched a fair amount of the Gators @ Vols game tonight - Spikes is a player. If we can't get Rey, and I doubt we'll even have a chance of a sniff, I would jump through hoops if we took him. He and Mayo could be dominant.
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Old 09-20-2008, 09:55 PM   #32
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

You have to take into consideration the teams that will be picking in the Top 10...

Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Ravens (maybe), Seahawks (maybe), Jets, Lions, Raiders, Falcons...

-Bengals are most likely to take him. Though they need help along their OLine and Dlines badly... and there's a lot of OT and Dlinemen in this draft projected to rd1.
-Dolphins need everything... will probably get George Selvie.
-Jets and Lions would be looking his way too. But they Jets should take a RB like Beanie Wells. And the Lions already drafted a few LB's pretty high recently (Ernie Sims, Dizon, someone else I forgot his name). Lions could also use a young QB, CB, OT
-Imagine 49ers with Patrick Willis and Rey Maualuga? Scary. A WR is more important to them though. Same with QB after that BUST Alex Smith.
-Rams need Defense. Possible that they draft Maualuga...

It all matters on what else is on the board, cause those teams have bigger needs than ILB. With that said, Rey Maualuga is one of the most hyped LB's coming into the draft in a loooong time and teams could take him based off being the best player available.

I think Rey Rey gets taken in the 7-14 range... only way we get him is if we trade up. Which is very possible. If he slips to the 11-14 range I'd love to trade up to get him. We could use our 1st and 3rd to move up. I think Pats fans more than anyone else want Maualuga for two reasons: 1)we thought we'd be able to pick him with last years 7th overall but he didn't declare, 2) ILB is our only major need and Maualuga is a perfect fit for a 3-4

Kind of pointless to talk about now... as someone said earlier, Jerod Mayo wasnt on anyones radar at this time last year and ended up as a Top 10 pick. Everything will become much more clear after the Senior Bowl and Combine.

Last edited by KillEM; 09-20-2008 at 09:58 PM..
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Old 09-21-2008, 01:02 AM   #33
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

2008 contracts
RB Evans, Jorden
OL Hochstein, Connelly, Britt, Levoir
S J. Sanders, Harrison, Williams
CB L. Sanders, O'Neal
QB Cassel, Gutierrez
WR Gaffney, Ventrone
P Hanson
LS Paxton
DL K. Smith, S. Thomas, Wright
LB Alexander, Izzo, Woods
bold are my best guess at ERFA/RFA

2009 contracts
OL Mankins, Kaczur, Neal, Yates, O'Callaghan
TE Watson, D. Thomas
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Green, L. Smith
LB Bruschi, Vrabel, Guyton
CB Hobbs
RB Faulk
WR Aiken
K Gostkowski
ERFA/RFA rules change for 2010's uncapped year, so I'm not guessing at this point.

Looking at these two lists, my first crack at a 2008 shopping list:

Rounds 1-3: OG/OT, TE, DL

I'm looking for a replacement for Neal, this can be someone who moves Kaczur inside or a direct replacement at RG.
Loss of blocking at the TE position is affecting the run game, I know many here consider the first round TEs a waste, but Graham's departure and the slow down when Watson is injured is argument enough to consider TE early.
Sey and Wilfork and Green and Wright coming up in the next two years makes this a value pick.

Rounds 4-7: OLB, ILB, S, CB, FB, QB, P

OLB depth is an ongoing need.
Guyton was a lucky signing at UDFA, but more depth at ILB is needed.
BB kept Spann and Dillard and Ventrone, so he's keeping some depth tucked away to develop. Harrison may re-sign if he doesn't wear down too much this season. Shopping for another S in the draft makes some sense, even if J. Sanders extends.
Wheatley and Wilhite and Richardson create a nice pool of youth, but another young player to develop at CB won't go amiss with Hobbs contract up after 2009.
Evans will probably re-sign, but until he does, a stronger blocker than Eckel should be considered.
Cassel is most likely gone after this year. Gutierrez may bounce back, but even if he does, competition is needed.
Hanson is struggling with directional kicking, and even though he's showing a strong leg so far, he's likely to be replaced or at least challenged.

The uncapped 2010 season is going to make drafting strategy very challenging for the next couple seasons. There are 7 essential players coming due at the end of 2009 - Seymour, Wilfork, Mankins, Watson, Kaczur, Jarvis, and Neal. One can hope they will all want to stay, but the first three are going to be targeted early by poachers. Their agents will probably encourage them to wait until after 2009 before negotiating new contracts.
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Old 09-21-2008, 01:21 AM   #34
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!
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Old 09-21-2008, 06:37 AM   #35
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

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RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!
Jeff Otah has been sensational so far for the Panthers, Gosder Cherilus has been moved back to the right (where he looked better against the Packers), and Branden Albert was the most hyped of all OL's coming out of college (although he is now at LT). Looking at next year, there are a few OL's who will go first round - could we draft a new LT and move Light to the right with Kazcur moving in one?

Agree about TE's by the way, unless they are the next coming of Kellen Winslow or Tony Gonzalez, I'm happy to see them drafted lower. We need a blocking TE.
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Old 09-21-2008, 06:39 AM   #36
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

Don't agree about Guyton however, he was slated as a third rounder in a couple of mocks I saw. He has a lot of talent and potential, and could be an absolute steal.
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Old 09-21-2008, 10:35 AM   #37
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks View Post

Looking at these two lists, my first crack at a 2008 shopping list:

Rounds 1-3: OG/OT, TE, DL

I'm looking for a replacement for Neal, this can be someone who moves Kaczur inside or a direct replacement at RG.
Loss of blocking at the TE position is affecting the run game, I know many here consider the first round TEs a waste, but Graham's departure and the slow down when Watson is injured is argument enough to consider TE early.
Sey and Wilfork and Green and Wright coming up in the next two years makes this a value pick.
.
I agree with this assessment of our 1st day needs. OT, DL, TE, the same pattern BB cycled through 2000-2002.

Tyson Jackson is one of my favorites, hopefully he has a sub-par year and sneaks into the Pats' range.

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Old 09-21-2008, 11:23 AM   #38
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KillEM View Post
Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.
I don't think the perception of the "aging defense" really meets reality any more. If you projected next year's starting lineup from this year's roster, you'd get something like the following. (I've tried to plug in obvious replacements for players who are FAs at the end of this year; when there's nobody obvious on the roster, I've left question marks.)

OFFENSE
Brady
Maroney
Watson
Light
Mankins
Koppen
Neal
Kaczur
Moss
Welker
??

DEFENSE
Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
A. Thomas
Bruschi
Mayo
Vrabel
Meriweather
??
Hobbs
Wheatley

At this time next year 6 of those offensive starters will be over 30, but only 3 of the defensive starters. Stephen Neal turns 33 next year and has battled through a lot of injuries. I wouldn't be thrilled with a RG in the 1st round either, but it's a clear position of need.
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Old 09-21-2008, 06:19 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patchick View Post
I don't think the perception of the "aging defense" really meets reality any more. If you projected next year's starting lineup from this year's roster, you'd get something like the following. (I've tried to plug in obvious replacements for players who are FAs at the end of this year; when there's nobody obvious on the roster, I've left question marks.)

OFFENSE
Brady
Maroney
Watson
Light
Mankins
Koppen
Neal
Kaczur
Moss
Welker
??

DEFENSE
Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
A. Thomas
Bruschi
Mayo
Vrabel
Meriweather
??
Hobbs
Wheatley

At this time next year 6 of those offensive starters will be over 30, but only 3 of the defensive starters. Stephen Neal turns 33 next year and has battled through a lot of injuries. I wouldn't be thrilled with a RG in the 1st round either, but it's a clear position of need.
I think the age cliches are related to the overall speed of the unit, $100 to the first person who can cover a TE. Personally I think BB & SP have lost their fastball, 2005 was the last time they were decent. That year they drafted a OG, I would take a pick like Mankins, especially since he is a free agent after 2009.
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:01 AM   #40
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Default Re: 2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KillEM View Post
RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!
At this point in the college season, identifying a (hopefully) late 1st round prospect isn't reasonable. Identifying positions to shop for based on current team strengths is applicable.

OL is a "need" based on Neal's age, injury history, and contract status. How that "need" is filled is yet to be determined. It may be there is a better value at another position, but for now greatest "need" is on the right side of the OL.

Today's fish flop argues that TE is a position of need. I want a dominant blocker, but I insist he be at least as athletic as Grahambo with better than average hands. Not too many of those getting out of round one.

I'll echo Pony and say I'd love to see Tyson Jackson on the board when the Pats go on the clock.

Guyton is such a STs/backup ILB that he was signed as a UDFA and slid all the way down to #3 ILB - causing Pioli to muse on how they should have drafted him and got really lucky no one else did. It would be nice to find another Mayo in the draft, but I think you're arguing in advance of facts to brand Guyton a career backup.

Sanders and Harrison start, if Harrison is gone who replaces him? (Meriweather)
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