Wilfork#75

Recently I’ve been trying to look at how to improve the defense, but instead of just looking at drafting or signing the most talented players, I’ve been looking at which scheme would best suit the team and what additions we need to run that scheme. I think we should try and copy Seattle’s version of the 4-3 Under defense because it suits our personnel and the style of defense I would like to play. It’s characterized by a big, physical defensive line that both stops the run and creates pressure through favourable matchups, and a big, physical secondary that plays tough man coverage and presses at the line.

The basic positions:

5 Tech DE:
Big, physical and athletic DE that two gaps the strong side. Needs to be a strong run stuffer that can control the B&C gaps on his side but also have the lateral agility to set the edge on the outside if the defense tries to stretch the C-gap. This is the Red Bryant role in Seattle and a hugely important part of the success of the defense. Currently our best fit for this is Vince Wilfork, but he has another position in this formation.

1 Tech NT:
Another big hoss in the middle that plays the 1 Tech to the strong side. He needs to command and hold up against a double team from the C and OG so he needs the size and power to anchor at the point of attack. This is ideal for Vince Wilfork.

3 Tech DT:
With the 5-Tech and the NT commanding double teams and occupying the C, OG and OT on the strong side, this leaves the weak side 3-Tech DT 1 on 1 with the other OG. The 3-tech DT is the team’s best interior pass rusher and should be able to not only take advantage of the 1 on 1 matchup with the single OG, but be strong enough to defend the run. I think this is the role Armond Armstead is built for in this defense where he can use his length and athleticism.

Leo/Elephant:
This is the weak side DE, and like the 3-Tech DT, unless an offense plays two TE sets, he will be matched up 1 on 1 with the OT. He needs to be a premier pass rusher to take advantage of the matchup as well as have the length and anchor to set the edge. Luckily we have a 6’5” beast on the edge with a great length, strong anchor and good hand usage to disengage to make plays. Chandler Jones is perfect in this role similar to Chris Clemons.

SLB:
This guy plays on his feet near the line and is virtually a 5th defensive lineman. He needs to be strong enough and stout enough to set the edge, physical enough to hit TE’s at the line and have the necessary athleticism to occasionally drop into coverage against TE’s. They also have to be strong pass rushers to take advantage of matchups against TE’s and RB’s. To me this role is best suited to be shared between Hightower and Ninko depending on the matchup. Against strong running teams and less athletic TE’s I think Hightower is ideal because of his physicality and pass rush ability. Against more athletic TE’s and stronger passing teams I think Ninko would be better suited dropping into coverage. Either way, having two guys that can both play the position at a high level would be a huge benefit.

MLB:
Like most Mike LBer’s, in this scheme the MLB needs to be intelligent and instinctive to help make play calls for the defense. He needs to be able to take on and crush fullbacks as well as be able to break up short crossing patterns. Brandon Spikes is a solid fit here, although he does lack some athleticism and feel in coverage.

WLB:
This guy needs to be the fastest and best coverage LBer. With both lineman in front of him likely having 1 on 1 matchups, he needs to be able to play in space and react quickly. Mayo should be well suited for this role.

SS:
This is the Kam Chancellor role for the Seahawks and one that requires both the size and strength to play close to the line and match up with TE’s, but also the speed and lateral agility to play the deep CF role when the FS moves down over the slot. He needs to be a strong tackler because he will play almost as a 4th LBer at times as an in the box safety. This is a role that will need to be filled because we currently don’t have any one with the skillset to do so.

FS:
This is the standard cover 1 deep CF Safety that gives over the top help to his CBs. He needs to have great range to play the entire field, make good decisions and be instinctive. Ideally he would also have the skillset to drop down over smaller slot WR which the SS would struggle against. I think McCourty is ideal for this role and would excel given a full Training Camp.

CB:
This is generally a cover 1 system so you need strong man to man CB’s who are big, physical and can press at the line. Seattle has the blueprint with Browner and Sherman, so the Pats need their own pair of physical corners on the outside. Dennard is ideal for this, but he needs a partner in crime on the other side, whether that be Talib, another Free Agent or a Draft pick.

Obviously things change in sub packages, but this is the general idea of the base package. The main benefits of this is that it is strong against the run, but also allows for good pressure by creating favorable match-ups for your best players. Chandler Jones should wreak havoc 1 on 1 against OT’s and if Armstead can live up to the hype he could be disruptive inside. Personnel wise I think there are 3 key pieces missing; the monster 5-tech that can two gap the strong side, a big, physical SS that can play close to the line and match up with TE’s and another physical man to man cover CB. If we can add them I think this would be an ideal defensive scheme to run.


4-3 Under Defensive Line Alignment

Seahawks 4-3 Under Base Defense: DL (pressure)
Here we can see the aim of the defensive line alignment is to create favorable match-ups for its best pass rushers while still being strong against the run. With two big, long and athletic players at the 3-tech (Armstead) and the Leo (Jones), we should have the personnel to be potentially dominant.

Seattle's 4-3 Under Alignment

NFL Draft 2013: T.J. McDonald scouting report - Big Cat Country
Here we can see Seattle's basic alignment. #51 is the MLB, #56 is the WLB and #31 is Kam Chancellor the SS who is playing as an in the box safety, almost as another linebacker. #29 is Earl Thomas the FS in the deep CF role.

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Wilfork#75

Building the Roster

Free Agency
We obviously have 3 key free agent which we would need to make decisions on; Welker, Talib and Vollmer. Salary cap wise I think we could keep two of the three, but that would limit us in other areas. I think Welker is the biggest key and hardest to replace so I would give him a 2-3 year deal. Vollmer probably has the most value around the league, so I would look to tag and trade him to a team that is desperate for OT help. Talib is looking for a big pay day so I would let him walk and look to replace him with another veteran in a very strong free agent CB class.

In terms of other free agents, it looks like there could be some good value with not many teams having money to spend. There are 3 guys that are free agents (or likely to be cut) that interest me the most. DT Glenn Dorsey from KC has already been discussed on this board and I think he is an ideal buy low candidate. I think he would be perfect as a base 3-tech and sub package DT. CB Nnamdi Asomugha who most people expect to be cut is my main CB target. He has dropped a bit in the last two years but is ideally suited for a physical, man to man defense. And finally Safety Adrian Wilson who is expected to be released by the Cardinals. Last season he was my top S target but he lost playing time as the year went on. I think he still has something in the tank and could not only contribute, but help develop a young SS.

Re-Sign
WR- Wes Welker
WR- Julian Edelman
RB- Danny Woodhead
CB- Kyle Arrington
LB Tracy White
CB- Marquice Cole
LB- Niko Koutovedis

Sign
CB- Nnamdi Asomugha- 6'2" 210lbs (if cut)
SS- Adrian Wilson- 6'3" 230lbs (if cut)
DT- Glenn Dorsey- 6'1" 297lbs

Tag and Trade
Sebastian Vollmer to SD? Chi? For a 2nd and 4th round pick

Draft
This is an extremely deep draft so I would look to trade back and pick up as many picks as possible. I don’t think there is too much difference between the quality of players between #20 and #80, so I would look to load up on picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds.

Trades
I’m not going to predict the exact picks for each draft trade because there is so much change throughout the draft so I will just estimate.

Trade QB Ryan Mallett to Cleveland for 1st (16-25)
Mallet for #6 isn’t very realistic, but a Cleveland trade down and Mallett for a mid/late 1st might not be crazy
1st (Cle) for two 2nds
2nd (mid round) for two 3rds
2nd (late round) for 3rd and 4th
4th for two 5ths

Draft Picks
1. DT- Jonathon Hankins- DT- Ohio State- 6'3" 320lbs
I think he could be ideal for the 5 Tech DE position in the Red Bryant mold. He has the size (6’3” 320lbs), strength, anchor and lateral agility for the position and could contribute from day 1. He seems to be falling at the moment so he may actually be available here. If he’s not I would trade down and take Jessie Williams from Alabama who I think also has the size and strength but doesn’t quite have the athletic upside of Hankins.



2a. OL- Barrett Jones- Alabama 6'4" 305lbs
He seems to be falling and I don’t know why. He has been as dominant and consistent an offensive lineman as there has been the past few years in college football and he has done it at every position. Last year many experts had him as a 1st round LT, now he could be an elite C or G. His talent, toughness, intelligence and versatility will make him a top quality NFL offensive lineman from day 1.



2b. WR- Justin Hunter- Tennessee- 6'4" 200lbs
I don’t usually go for the raw, athletic WR’s, but Hunter is too good to pass up. His combination of size, speed and athleticism is off the charts and he probably has the highest upside of any WR since Calvin Johnson. He is a big target with a huge catch radius, and will be a big play waiting to happen.



3a. SS- TJ McDonald- USC- 6'2" 210lbs
I’ve watched him closely for 2 years and I think he will be a very good NFL SS. In my opinion he is the best fit of any safety in the draft or free agency to fit that Cam Chancellor role in the 4-3 under and would add some size, athleticism and attitude to our secondary. I also think the fact the he is a long term starter, team captain and son of a 6 time All Pro SS certainly work in his favor.



3b- WR- Da’Rick Rogers- Tennessee Tech- 6'2" 206lbs
We got the big play WR earlier, now we get the physical outside guy to compliment him. If Rogers character checks out he will be a steal here. Before the season he was my top rated WR and I think his style of play would suit this team perfectly.



3c. CB- David Amerson- NC State- 6'3" 195lbs
He is a faller that had a horrible year, but you can’t teach 6’3” with speed, athleticism and ball skills. This is a pick based purely off his skill set and not his play because I think the potential here is huge. He played out of position at NC State playing a lot of off zone or off man coverage. I want to see him playing up at the line, using his length to press the receivers and try and run with them. He is a gamble, but in the 3rd round I think it’s worth the risk.



3d. OT- Terron Armstead- Arkansas-Pine Bluff- 6'5" 306lbs
Don’t really need to say much about this pick, he has been well discussed already.



4. MLB- Vince Williams- Florida State- 6'1" 247lbs
This is my new binkie and I fell in love from the 2nd play I saw of him. Brandon Spikes has 1 year left on his contract and I don’t think we can afford to keep him so I think Williams would be a perfect replacement. He is aggressive, instinctive and plays the game hard and fast. He has great discipline, reads the play and uses his hands well to disengage and make the play on the ball carrier. He isn’t quite as powerful as Spikes but he isn’t far off. I think he is a much better athlete than Spikes and can stone RB’s at the line as well as chase them to the sideline. He also has a much better feel for dropping into coverage and has fantastic instincts against the run. He has had some injuries but I don’t know why he doesn’t have more hype. I think this guy is a future stud and star in the NFL if he can stay healthy.



5a. TE- Michael Williams- Alabama- 6'6" 269lbs
Binkie #1. Best blocking TE in the NFL from day 1, I also love him as a lead blocking FB that is excellent at getting to the second level and opening up big running lanes.



5b. LB- Ty Powell- Harding- 6'2" 245lbs
Former community college S turned DE turned OLB. Powell has great athleticism and has dominated lower levels. People raved about his change of direction ability at the Senior Bowl and I think he could develop into a quality coverage LBer with some pass rush skills in the NFL. Probably a STer to start, but with some development he could be a sub package ace.



7a. K- Dustin Hopkins- Florida State
Competition is never a bad thing and Gostkowski has a very high cap number. If Hopkins can produce similarly to Gost, he might win the job and save the Pats some cash.


7b. LS- Carson Tinker- Alabama
The top LS in the draft, this is just so we don’t have to compete with other teams for him as an UDFA. I think he would be an upgrade over Aiken and adding a contributor to the 53 man roster in the 7th round is never a bad thing, even if he is just a long snapper.


What I think these Free Agent Signings and Draft picks would do is add size, speed and aggression to both the offense and defense and hopefully help us take the next step to a Super Bowl Championship.


Preliminary Roster
QB- Brady, Vet FA (Cassel, Hoyer?), Kafka
RB- Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Woodhead, Demps
WR- Welker, Lloyd, Hunter, Rogers, Edelman, Slater
TE- Gronk, Hernandez, Ballard, Williams
OT- Solder, Cannon, Armstead, Zusevics
OG/C- Mankins, Connolly, Jones, Wendell, McDonald

5 Tech DE- Hankins, Deaderick
NT- Wilfork, Love
3 Tech- Armstead, Dorsey, Forston
Leo- Jones, Bequette, Francis, Cunningham
SLB- Hightower, Ninko
MLB- Spikes, V. Williams, Fletcher
WLB- Mayo, Powell, Tarpanian
CB- Asomugha, Dennard, Amerson, Arrington, Dowling, Williams, Cole
FS- McCourty, Wilson, Gregory
SS- Wilson, McDonald, Ebner

K- Gostkowski, Hopkins
P- Mesko
LS- Tinker, Aiken

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patsfaninpa

I don't think we have the speed at lb to duplicate their success. They're giving you some gaps. But, Bobby Wanger runs a 4.46 at MLB. He turns those big holes into 3 yard gains. We have Brandon Spikes covering our mistakes. Personnel might be better suited if we let Spikes walk and shift Mayo back inside. He's bigger and not as fast as he used to be. But, he can run a little. Get a Mychal Kendrick, Levonte David type olb.

What is it about this forum that likes fat guys? Hankins was 350+ last year and got in better..not good..just better shape this year. Maybe, a dt to replace Wilfork type. I don't like him as a 3-tech and certainly he shouldn't be nowhere near the end of the line. He wouldn't be able to set the edge against a good high school team. If you want a 5-tech de that can slide inside for your nickel to give you a pass rush. Datone Jones - UCLA is your guy. If you want a fat guy to stuff the run, but can't get after the qb. Hankins is your guy. IMO we need guys who can get after the qb. Not another fatty. We have Wilfork and Love for that.

manxman2601

My problem with the Seattle 4-3 Under is that it creates even less pressure on the QB than our system does.

Seattle sack totals:

2011 - 38
2012 - 41 (bear in mind this includes that bizarre GB game)

New England

2011 - 57
2012 - 41

If we're a fan base constantly clamouring for pass rush, imagine what we'd be like with the 4-3 under.


However, that was an excellent post, well thought out and well put together.

everlong

Outstanding thread. I keep going back and forth between 4-3, 3-4, 2-5......I think the problem right now is although the front 7 personnel is pretty good it doesn't mesh together very in any of the schemes. 3-4 we don't have the DE's. 4-3 the LB's are somewhat duplicated skill wise. A 5-2 we don't have a second monster tackle to go with Vince.

I agree with P-in-PA that Spikes doesn't fit the 4-3 under and we don't have a SS or the CBs to play the scheme.

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There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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Wilfork#75

I think Spikes walks after this year and I wouldn't be against trading him now if we could get decent value. My new binkie is Vince Williams, and while he wont run a 4.4/5 I think he makes up for it with great instincts and anticipation. He would be an athletic upgrade over Spikes while not losing too much physicality. I think its also important to remember this is just the base package and you can overcome some of the LBer deficiencies on passing downs in sub packages. You could take Spikes (or whoever the MLB is) off the field, shift Mayo into the middle and play an extra safety. I would love to add more speed to the LBers but in this defense the LBers are the least important piece.

In terms of Hankins, a huge run stuffer is exactly what you want at the 5-tech. He isn't suppose to be a playmaker, he is a facilitator. The entire purpose of this scheme is to get the 3-tech and the Leo 1 on 1 in space against the OT and OG. I like Datone Jones but he certainly doesn't have the size or anchor to two-gap the strong side. He would be a 3-tech similar to Armstead. Hankins might not offer much of a pass rush, but he comes out on passing downs anyway when you shift to sub-packages. Red Bryant is the prototype and Hankins is the closest thing to it in the draft or free agency.

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Ochmed Jones

Do you have the stats on pressures by each defense?

manxman2601

SEA

2012:

Sacks 41
QB Hits 54
Hurries 155

Total 250

2011

sacks 38
Hits 36
Hurries 177

Total 251


NE

2012

Sacks 41
Hits 55
Hurries 176

Total 272

2011

Sacks 57
Hits 65
Hurries 215

Total 337


Hope that helps. And boy did our pass rush drop off from last year.

stelfans

Fantastic post, this is why i come here. Kudos Wilfork#75!

Now, we obviously lack the personnel and has manx pointed out i dont see this as being that great for the rush, altough i think thats more on the talent of the players and number of blitzes.

Wilfork#75

I don't think Seattle's lack of pressure was due to the scheme, I think it was just personnel deficiencies. Over half of their sacks from 2012 (19.5 out of 36) where by two players, Chris Clemons (11.5) the starting Leo who is suppose to dominate, and Bruce Irvin (8.0) a sub rusher who lines up opposite on passing downs. What they seem to lack is the dominant presence at the 3-tech who can create pressure on early downs and an interior pass rush in sub packages. They also didn't get much pressure out of their SLB which is another issue.

Personnel wise I think we could have a better front 4 than Seattle if we can find that 5-tech. I think Jones has the ability to be just as dominant as Chris Clemons in this type of system. Armond Armstead should be well suited to the 3-tech where he will have much more space than other schemes, almost similar to the room he had in the CFL. Wilfork is clearly an upgrade over any NT the Seahawks have and the only piece we are missing at the front is the monster DE who isn't a pass rusher anyway. I also think Hightower and Ninko are much better pass rushers than any of Seattle's SLB's. If we can then get more interior production on passing downs in sub packages, I don't see why this scheme can't create a lot of pressure.

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