dryheat44

I think he's a free agent.

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VJCPatriot

Wilson is too green. He is a playmaker but gets burnt quite a bit for being out of position. I think that's why BB limited his snaps particularly the closer we got to postseason play. Hopefully he can improve in his sophmore year, but still he doesn't have the size to matchup against big tight ends. I'm intrigued with drafting one of the bigger safties 6'2-6'4 and seeing if they can hang with the tightend mismatches. 5 years and we STILL cannot cover the freaking tight end!! Might also consider investing in a coverage linebacker.

Yes his hands are THAT BAD. He couldn't beat out Tiquan Underwood. That tells you something. He also might not be good at route/running, picking up the option tree offense. Would like to see the Pats look at a Wheaton or Patton at WR in round 2.

You make a valid point. And yet Connolly is one of the highest paid Pats OL at 3m. BB must see something in him? The problem is finding an upgrade on him in the draft will likely cost a 2nd round or higher pick. I doubt there are any 3rd round or later guys who would be an immediate upgrade.

True. Vereen showed us a lot of ability against the Texans. Unless Woodhead comes back cheap he probably won't be back which is a shame. But I can totally see some team envisioning Woodhead as the next Sproles and offering him way more money than the Pats would match.

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patfanken

1. I'm not seeing the prevailing sentiment that OL should be one of our bigger needs, especially OG. Given the light number of picks we have this year, I wouldn't be happy to see us use one of the top 3 picks on a offensive lineman. Even if Volmer walks, BB and Scar have invested a lot of time on McDonald and Zusevics. I would THINK that in their 3rd year in the system they would offer as much as we would suspect from any rookie.

2. I HAVE a dream. And I can't seem to get it out of my head. So in order to make this dream come true I'm going to have to sacrifice a little on the offense and go with Heat's maxim of signing Edelman and let Welker walk and hope we can get 80% of his production at 20% of the cost. THEN we can afford to re-sign Volmer and I get to have my dream come true and see a Connolly, Cannon, Volmer Gronk right side, which will have DL's begging for mercy in the run game.

3. Position wise, those top 3 picks should be used exclusively on the DL, DB, ,and WR in no particular order.

4. I'm not mourning the lack of picks this year as much as some. Sure its nice to have a lot of picks going into the draft season. It certainly makes it a lot more fun for us to speculate draft trades and participate in player rich mock drafts. But the reality is that the Pats roster is maturing. And while there are certainly holes to fill, those are relatively few in nature compared to most teams.

Over the past 3 years the Pats have completed a massive roster turn over. Only 5 starters remain from the 2010 Jets loss. We already have what amounts to 10 new faces being added to the roster who had little or no impact this season. (Armstead, Dowling, Demps, Fletcher, Ballard, and the 5 draft picks, and that doesn't count several other IR returnees, and other "camp fodder" FA signees of whom history tells us, one or two will make the roster.

So even if we didn't sign a single outside FA, we'd still be looking a close to a 20% turnover if all those players made the team. Last season brought us 3 starters, 1 contributor, and a special teams starter, plus 2 "prospects". That's quite a haul. This year if we manage 3 contributors, and one ST's starter, I think that would be a great result

5. Its real early now, and we are picking late. Remember that the actual draft will bear little resemblance to what we speculate now. Especially this early. A lot of guys that people are hyping now will fall and guys we've never heard of or discussed will get drafted early. Don't forget that RGIII was a 3rd round WR prospect going into his last year at Baylor, and if anyone ever mention the name Tavon Wilson before it was called last April, they deserve some kind of a prize.

6. I look forward to all your posts. They make the off season infinitely more interesting

mayoclinic

I can't agree, Ken. First, I think that building a premium OL is ALWAYS worthwhile. While Scar has been masterful about creating a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts, there's no substitute for having true studs on the OL (and DL) who can win the war in the trenches. The Patriots have to some extent masked deficiencies in their OL through a quick passing game, but that puts more pressure on Brady, which may not be the way to go as he gets older. Guys like McDonald and Zusevics are quality reserves at reasonable cap hits, but I don't necessarily see them as immediate impact starts compared with a guy like Jonathan Cooper or DJ Fluker. Mankins was an impact starter as a rookie - remember how he did? Remember how Vollmer saved us in 2009 when our OL was falling apart? Similarly, Solder had an immediate impact at RT in 2011 when Vollmer's back sidelined him. Those kind of guys can have a huge impact, and early.

I have always been a HUGE Vollmer fan, and re-signing him has always been extremely high on my priority list. But right now I'm terrified of his back issue, combined with a big money contract. With so much money tied up in Mankins, giving Vollmer a big money deal only to have his back become a major issue would be a huge drain on the team's cap resources. I think that needs to be evaluated very, very carefully.

I personally consider QB, DL and OL to be the 3 most important areas of the team, so I have no problem investing 2 of our 3 top 100 picks in those 2 areas. I think that WRs and DBs can be added later. There's no guarantee that a high draft pick DB won't have the minimal impact of a rookie Ras-I Dowling, or a low pick DB won't have the tremendous impact of an Alfonzo Dennard.

I also believe that we need continuity experience in our secondary more than additional rookies starting. I'm not in favor of using a top 100 pick on a DB, unless we get more picks.

More draft picks allows a number of things: flexibility to move around, flexibility to pick up low cost players who could potentially upgrade the roster - not because of acute "need", but because it is always good to upgrade the roster - and an increased chance of hitting on 1 pick. Again, look at the impact Alfonzo Dennard had on our 2012 draft.

It's certainly early, and there will be a ton of movement between now and the end of April. That's to be expected. The Pats should be vigilent to find good values. Part of my concern with the lack of draft picks is that they won't have the flexibiltiy to move around and find those guys.

But if we come out of this draft with a significant contributor at DT, OL and WR plus a nickel/slot DB or 3rd outside press-man DB, I will be thrilled.

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everlong

I want the OL retooled with more beef. I have for a long time. However which draft makes the Pats better for the next few years?

29 Hankins DT
59 Elam SS
91 Williams DT (NC not AU)

29 Cooper G
59 Jones C
91 Long RT

The top assumes you resign Vollmer and Welker and use the current roster to fill guard and center.

The bottom assumes you're going after some FAs on the defensive side.

They can't do it all and I prefer defensive line. Honestly that stupid Mallet for #6 keeps popping into my head and I think man that would be the our Hershal Walker that lets us do it all and win another 3 rings with this run.

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manxman2601

I prefer #2 although I'd take out Barrett Jones and slip a WR or Brandon Williams in there. I'm not overly keen on Hankins and don't see great value in taking a safety high considering we did that last year. Option 1 would also be better if it was Brandon Williams rather than Sylvester. So I'd go:

#29 J Cooper
#59 Hopkins, Patton, Wheaton, R Woods
#91 Kyle Long

That sets us up beautifully for the next few years.

everlong

You can substitute out the players they were just examples by position. I think upgrading the DL is more important. In regards to safety I'd still like to see them get a young SS who can cover and hit. I like Brandon Williams better as well but I bet he shoots up into the second round.

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"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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manxman2601

Yes but they have to be the right DL. Hankins and Sylvester Williams are just bodies, they don't significantly upgrade our DL. Kawaan Short doesn't really fit BB's scheme. The one I do like is Brandon Williams because I see plenty of upside (see a bit of Louis Nix in him). If you want a game changing DL, hope the Mallett #6 happens and we get Lotulelei because he's a genuine game changer for the interior DL.

As for safety, BB has said that he wants his safeties to be interchangeable. I don't see Elam being able to do what McCourty does, and having taken a Safety in the 2nd round last year, I really don't want to go back to that again this year.

Considering our new emphasis on the running game, the possible loss of Welker and the help he gives our OL, the ageing of Brady and the possibility that we'll need to protect a new QB sometime in the next few years, the surest way I see for this team to maintain and improve upon it's current level is to have the best OL possible. Way more important than the DL in my view (particularly as BB emphasises run stopping rather than pressuring the QB).

Edit: Just to add, O Linemen are three down players. Unless they're achieving Wilfork levels, the likes of Sylvester Williams or Hankins are 2 down players at best.

everlong

Obviously they have to be the right players for the scheme. I disagree on Hankins and Williams. I think Hankins can come in and both a 3 down player and Williams a passing down pentrator. I agree with you on Short. I haven't seen Lotulelei and haven't studied up on him because the general consensus is he'll be gone and the #6 is a pipe dream.

I don't think Chung was drafted to be interchanable or for that matter Meriweather. Those two misses were very costly. I can understand not wanting to go there but Gregory was spotting at best, Chung is as good as gone, Wilson a work in progress and who knows so the position is still in flux.

I think Hankins can go 3 downs. Sylvester would be a rotational guy but that's what 3rd rounders are. If they upgrade the offensive line the defense still isn't championship level. If they upgrade the defensive line and the secondary the offense with some tweaks is.

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"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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mgteich

I agree with your conclusions. I would note that DL and OL seem to be best secured from the draft. I certainly expect an OL to be draft high if Vollmer walks. Drafting a defensive back is also worth it because the high cost of free agent backs. Of course, this is more of a crapshoot. To say that Dowling is bad pick because he was injured twice seems somehow beside the point. And yes, I would always drafting a DL if the value is there.

It may or may not be the year to take a flyer on a wide receiver. My vote is almost always "no".