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Old 01-30-2013, 08:41 PM   #561
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

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Couldn't've put it better, myself.

And there's no need to replace Welker at all.

It's time to Pass less, and Run more.
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So you're going to have to retool the O-Line for that to happen.
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You don't SAY???

I've been advocating "a better O Line" since 1426, my friend.


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Old 01-30-2013, 11:03 PM   #562
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

As we sit now, I think that we can get 2 top 50 players if we wish to move up in the 2nd. Even with the strategy of getting two good men, Fluker will likely be out of reach. BTW, do you really put the need at OG/C higher than our other draft needs? I'm fine with Fluker as our first rounder, since he can also start at RT if that is necessary. But surely there is value at DL and WR in the top 50. Obviously, there is the usual need to find yet another defensive back.

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Yes, we do. That works for me.

- Solder with Mankins/Thomas on the left side was fine
- Move Connolly back to center
- Draft DJ Fluker and put him at RG next to Cannon, or Vollmer if we can keep him
- Get Gronk back, and add Ballard as a second blocking TE
- Draft a fullback/H-back like Kyle Jusevics to clear the pile when we need to run

I would consider that a line that we should be able to run behind.
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Old 01-31-2013, 04:16 AM   #563
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

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As we sit now, I think that we can get 2 top 50 players if we wish to move up in the 2nd. Even with the strategy of getting two good men, Fluker will likely be out of reach. BTW, do you really put the need at OG/C higher than our other draft needs? I'm fine with Fluker as our first rounder, since he can also start at RT if that is necessary. But surely there is value at DL and WR in the top 50. Obviously, there is the usual need to find yet another defensive back.
For me, our lack of draft picks this year is really crippling, and it irks me no end. "Moving up" would cost something, and we don't have much to pay, unless we "move back" from 29.

My #1 need going into the draft was a LDE. The Armond Armstead signing addressed that brilliantly. He may or may not work out, but I think he's got as much of a chance as anyone we could have targeted in the draft, and probably more because he's had some pro experience and been out of the college environment.

At this point my 3 big priorities through the draft or DT, OL and WR. And probably in that order, mainly because I value DL so much. DB has never been much of a priority for me - I don't really want to spend a high pick on another rookie DB, we've had too much youth and inexperience at the position. I want continuity and some experience, so I want to re-sign Talib and Arrington if at all possible. Maybe sign a veteran FS like Kenny Phillips. Maybe draft a late round DB.

As for how my 3 priorities would sort out with 29, 59 and 91, I would never take WR in the 1st round, but whether I'd use 59 on a WR vs. OL or DT would depend on the values. I could see something like the following:

1. DT - Hankins if he falls, or Jesse Williams. I doubt Sharrif Floyd will fall. I'm not convinced Kawann Short is worth a 1st, so if those 3 are gone I may go OL or trade back. A front 7 coverage LB like Alec Ogletree could be a "value" pick.

2. OL or WR. If a Barrett Jones or Dallas Thomas falls, they could be too good to pass up. Ditto a Justin Hunter or Quinton Patton. See who the BPA is.

3. WR or OL. Maybe Brian Winters or Terron Armstead at OL. Not sure who at WR, which is the problem.

What I really want is to move up from 91 into the 2nd round, but I don't know how to do it without some Deus Ex Machina Mallett trade scenario.

But there's a lot of time between now and the draft.
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Old 01-31-2013, 08:17 AM   #564
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

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I've been advocating "a better O Line" since 1426, my friend.[/I]

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I have referenced it my snarky friend. The problem is to do would be expensive in either FA dollars or draft picks. If I'm going to use those resources for me it's 3-4 DE/4-3 DT, safety, 3-4 OLB/4-3 DE and then the O-Line.
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Old 01-31-2013, 08:21 AM   #565
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

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For me, our lack of draft picks this year is really crippling, and it irks me no end. "Moving up" would cost something, and we don't have much to pay, unless we "move back" from 29.

My #1 need going into the draft was a LDE. The Armond Armstead signing addressed that brilliantly. He may or may not work out, but I think he's got as much of a chance as anyone we could have targeted in the draft, and probably more because he's had some pro experience and been out of the college environment.

At this point my 3 big priorities through the draft or DT, OL and WR. And probably in that order, mainly because I value DL so much. DB has never been much of a priority for me - I don't really want to spend a high pick on another rookie DB, we've had too much youth and inexperience at the position. I want continuity and some experience, so I want to re-sign Talib and Arrington if at all possible. Maybe sign a veteran FS like Kenny Phillips. Maybe draft a late round DB.

As for how my 3 priorities would sort out with 29, 59 and 91, I would never take WR in the 1st round, but whether I'd use 59 on a WR vs. OL or DT would depend on the values. I could see something like the following:

1. DT - Hankins if he falls, or Jesse Williams. I doubt Sharrif Floyd will fall. I'm not convinced Kawann Short is worth a 1st, so if those 3 are gone I may go OL or trade back. A front 7 coverage LB like Alec Ogletree could be a "value" pick.

2. OL or WR. If a Barrett Jones or Dallas Thomas falls, they could be too good to pass up. Ditto a Justin Hunter or Quinton Patton. See who the BPA is.

3. WR or OL. Maybe Brian Winters or Terron Armstead at OL. Not sure who at WR, which is the problem.

What I really want is to move up from 91 into the 2nd round, but I don't know how to do it without some Deus Ex Machina Mallett trade scenario.

But there's a lot of time between now and the draft.
OK I think this post moves you and I more into the same mindset than previously. The more I see of Hankins the more I like him BTW and I really think he's gone in the teens which is a shame. I'm very much in favor of going back to a 3-4 with our LBs and I'm hoping Armstead and be a consistent version of 2004 Jarvis Green. If that happens and they pick up another 3-4 DE to add to their current roster it could become DE by committee.
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Old 01-31-2013, 08:26 AM   #566
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Default Re: My Blueprint For the Pats

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If you take on an $11.5M cap hit for Welker this year you probably have to let Woodhead and Edelman walk, and then Welker is gone in 2014, and then where are you? Are you any better off in the long term than you are now?

Of all the available options, I think that using the franchise tag on Welker again would be one of the worst. A huge cap hit when we don't have a ton of room to maneuver, with no long term solution.
I don't see Edelman costing much more than the vet minimum given his injury history and Woodhead might be looking at what 2M/Y with a limited bonus?

Honestly I'd be much more on board with letting him walk if Edelman, Gronk and Hernandez didn't have their injury histories. In the past three seasons how many game have they all played? Without looking it's not half and may not be a third. Wes is that consistent game in game out move the chains guy.

I do wonder if they could move Vereen or Demps to the slot. I don't know that Demps could handle the pounding but its a thought.
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:11 AM   #567
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I don't see Edelman costing much more than the vet minimum given his injury history and Woodhead might be looking at what 2M/Y with a limited bonus?

Honestly I'd be much more on board with letting him walk if Edelman, Gronk and Hernandez didn't have their injury histories. In the past three seasons how many game have they all played? Without looking it's not half and may not be a third. Wes is that consistent game in game out move the chains guy.

I do wonder if they could move Vereen or Demps to the slot. I don't know that Demps could handle the pounding but its a thought.
I think we need to roll with Edelman and hope he can give us 80% of Welker's production at 25% of the cost. And I think we need to kick the tires on a guy like Amendola to see where he and his agent are. He's had injury issues the past two years, and while they're probably not going to be recurring, it has to cut into his value some. Plus they have to know that if Welker leaves that he can put up enormous numbers here. He could probably come fairly cheap on a one-year deal while he improves his status for the 2014 free agency market.

Or we bring back Salas and see what he is. BB obviously liked having him. Ebert too, to a lesser extent.

Other draft thoughts:
1. Is there a reason why Tavon Wilson couldn't play more in a coverage linebacker role against pass-heavy offenses? Get him in there and dare the pass-heavy teams to run the ball. And I'm tired of seeing Spikes or Hightower allowing 16 yard receptions to guys like Dennis Pitta and Jacob Tamme on 3rd and 15. Part of the reason BB drafted Wilson was his ability to play different roles of the defense. While I'm happy with his contributions in 2012 vs. his draft status, I think we'll see much more in 2013. At any rate, I don't want to spend a first or second-day pick on a coverage linebacker. We could even see Ed Reed in that role in 2013.

2. Obviously the Patriots defense is more in need of help than the offense. However, we've seen good defenses able to greatly limit Brady's ability to hurt them, particularly if the offense is at less than 100% health. If Tavon Austin is there in the first, doesn't he become a legitimate target? Put another playmaker on the field, particularly one who can line up anywhere and force the defense to defend more ground. It would prove especially helpful in those situations where the Patriots need a furious comeback and the defense is squatting on the medium zones without fear of anybody getting behind them. On that note, Matt Slater is probably the fastest guy on the team. Why can't he improve at WR enough to be a legitimate threat in those situations? Are his hands that bad?

3. Connolly was the weak link of the OL all year. I think Thomas performed better when he was out there. With Mankins aging and showing that he's not indestructable, a guard also looks to be a priority, whether in free agency or in the first or second round.

4. I think I want Shane Vereen on the field more. Which means Woodhead is redundant, and should be welcomed back at reasonable cost, but not made a priority.
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Old 01-31-2013, 09:22 AM   #568
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I think we need to roll with Edelman and hope he can give us 80% of Welker's production at 25% of the cost
If he was healthy 100% of the time I think you would get exactly that. However he's proven to be healthy about 33% of the time which means you're getting 25% of the production for 25% of the cost.

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Other draft thoughts:
1. Is there a reason why Tavon Wilson couldn't play more in a coverage linebacker role against pass-heavy offenses? Get him in there and dare the pass-heavy teams to run the ball. And I'm tired of seeing Spikes or Hightower allowing 16 yard receptions to guys like Dennis Pitta and Jacob Tamme on 3rd and 15. Part of the reason BB drafted Wilson was his ability to play different roles of the defense. While I'm happy with his contributions in 2012 vs. his draft status, I think we'll see much more in 2013. At any rate, I don't want to spend a first or second-day pick on a coverage linebacker. We could even see Ed Reed in that role in 2013.
If healthy that should be Ras-I's role but Wilson should fit. I also think Hightower will make a leap in coverage this coming year. Spikes is just too slow.

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2. Obviously the Patriots defense is more in need of help than the offense. However, we've seen good defenses able to greatly limit Brady's ability to hurt them, particularly if the offense is at less than 100% health. If Tavon Austin is there in the first, doesn't he become a legitimate target? Put another playmaker on the field, particularly one who can line up anywhere and force the defense to defend more ground. It would prove especially helpful in those situations where the Patriots need a furious comeback and the defense is squatting on the medium zones without fear of anybody getting behind them. On that note, Matt Slater is probably the fastest guy on the team. Why can't he improve at WR enough to be a legitimate threat in those situations? Are his hands that bad?
I think there's better value at the slot later in the draft. That first round pick need to go to a 3-4 DE/4-3 DT.

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3. Connolly was the weak link of the OL all year. I think Thomas performed better when he was out there. With Mankins aging and showing that he's not indestructable, a guard also looks to be a priority, whether in free agency or in the first or second round.
Agreed but I wouldn't count out Cannon at RG for this coming year unless Vollmer leaves and he needs to step out to RT....shudder....I think he's better inside and I fear his handling a speed guy.

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4. I think I want Shane Vereen on the field more. Which means Woodhead is redundant, and should be welcomed back at reasonable cost, but not made a priority.
I agree unless they can use them together by using Vereen in the slot more.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:23 AM   #569
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Or we bring back Salas and see what he is. BB obviously liked having him. Ebert too, to a lesser extent.
Salas is currently the property of the Iggles.
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Old 01-31-2013, 10:58 AM   #570
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My #1 need going into the draft was a LDE. The Armond Armstead signing addressed that brilliantly. He may or may not work out, but I think he's got as much of a chance as anyone we could have targeted in the draft, and probably more because he's had some pro experience and been out of the college environment.
This seems to be the sentiment for most. I don't understand it though. Everyone is likening him to Mike Wright, perhaps with some better length and more time spent conscious (sorry Mike). If we struck gold, we've got Red Bryant. That still doesn't solve our biggest problem, which is consistency on the edges.

Putting your stock in Chan Jones turning into a monster in his second year and hoping Bequette or Francis turns into your edge guy on the other side is going to end with some of that reality Grid was talking about slapping us upside the head.
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