My Blueprint For the Pats - Page 53 - New England Patriots Forums

manxman2601 · 01-27-2013, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Looking at the Pats' cap situation, I would consider modifying this slightly:

1. Let Welker walk. If a FA like Hartline can be signed for reasonable $, then do it. He's the one I would target. Otherwise, go WR in the draft. Need to keep the positional cost low for the next few years.

2. If the Pats think Cannon is ready to be a starter, let Vollmer walk. If he can be re-signed for reasonably money ($6M/year or less) then it's an option. Otherwise, the transition tag is an option, if not used on Talib.

3. I like the idea of pairing Fluker with either Vollmer or Cannon. Very powerful line. If Vollmer walks, the coaching staff can decide which of Fluker/Cannon to put at RT and which at RG. A backup/swing tackle would be useful. Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, and Terron Armstead are all options.

4. If we didn't get a WR in FA, I'd consider getting 3 in the draft. Someone like Austin, someone like Hunter, and maybe a guy like Marquise Goodwin who could be a faster Deion Branch replacement, with breakaway and deep capability. The trick is obviously getting enough draft picks to do that.

5. WIth the money available by not signing Welker or Vollmer, extend Talib and sign Kenny Phillips.

I'm almost with you on that approach. I'd like to find a pass rusher still. I think Ansah is now gone. He showed what's possible in the Senior Bowl with a dominant performance. With that and, no doubt, an outstanding combine, I think Ansah's stock is top 10, top 15 at worst. Daniel Jeremiah has us taking Carradine in the first in his latest mock. I'd still love to add him somewhere or Datone Jones or Sciz's pick Cornelius Washington. Obviously I prefer Armstead but any of your three OT's are fine and I want Mcfadden. So I'll settle for two WR's + Hartline. Goodwin is really growing on me so I'll take him and Wheaton/Patton/Hopkins as my choices. So:

1st - BPA Cooper/Fluker/Datone Jones/WR if the previous three jump in to this territory

2nd WR if not taken in first or OT (Armstead/Long/Watson

3rd Mcfadden

Additional 4th/5th - Goodwin

7A - Jusczczyk

7B - Special teamer/faller/BPA

something like that.

***mayoclinic*** · 01-27-2013, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manxman2601

I'm almost with you on that approach. I'd like to find a pass rusher still. I think Ansah is now gone. He showed what's possible in the Senior Bowl with a dominant performance. With that and, no doubt, an outstanding combine, I think Ansah's stock is top 10, top 15 at worst. Daniel Jeremiah has us taking Carradine in the first in his latest mock. I'd still love to add him somewhere or Datone Jones or Sciz's pick Cornelius Washington. Obviously I prefer Armstead but any of your three OT's are fine and I want Mcfadden. So I'll settle for two WR's + Hartline. Goodwin is really growing on me so I'll take him and Wheaton/Patton/Hopkins as my choices. So:

1st - BPA Cooper/Fluker/Datone Jones/WR if the previous three jump in to this territory

2nd WR if not taken in first or OT (Armstead/Long/Watson

3rd Mcfadden

Additional 4th/5th - Goodwin

7A - Jusczczyk

7B - Special teamer/faller/BPA

something like that.

Some thoughts back at you:

1. I agree that Ansah will go. Someone will go for the potential, and top 20. I'm not a big fan of Walter Football, but they had this comment:

Quote:

Ezekiel Ansah was just OK in the Senior Bowl practices because he was thinking too much. He stopped thinking and just played during the game, and the result was a dominant performance. Ansah destroyed every lineman he went up against. He put tons of pressure on the quarterbacks and stopped ball-carriers for minimal gains (or losses). He also recorded a strip-sack of Ryan Nassib. Ansah was awesome, and there's a good chance he'll be taken as high as ninth overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. I currently have him going to the Giants in my 2013 NFL Mock Draft, but it's doubtful that he's getting there now.

WalterFootball.com: 2013 Senior Bowl Draft Stock

People will forget the mediocre week of practice and raw technique, and remember what Ansah was able to accomplish against high level competition with his athleticism, which will undoubtedly be featured at the Combine.

At least we got Armond Armstead.

2. I think the biggest problem that the Pats have right now in general is that they have a tight cap situation and few draft picks. If we had 12 picks like we did in 2009-2011, this would be much easier. We could load up on 3 receivers, add a couple of DBs, a pass rusher, a DT, and a couple of linemen. This is a really deep draft, and there will be good talent available in the 5th round, and possibly later. But with only 5 picks, we don't have the resources to do that, so we have to pick and choose. Some people will argue that we need fewer players, but with our cap situation, low cost depth is vitally important. And the draft is the best way to get low cost depth for 3-4 years.

3. As a day 3 alternative to Ansah, 3 guys currently stand out to me: Lavarr Edwards, Cornelius Washington, and David Bass. Those guys all have a lot of athleticism and upside. They could be worked in as sub rushers while they develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of them turns out to be a stud. The problem right now is that we don't have any day 3 picks before the 7th round. But I'd be thrilled to get one of those 3 guys and have them bump Jermaine Cunningham off the roster. There's no way in hell I spend a 1st round pick on Tank Carradine coming off an ACL injury - and with Armstead and Ninkovich already at DE, I probably don't want to use a 1st round pick on a pass rusher, anyway. Not enough value.

4. With Armond Armstead signed, I'm also off the Datone Jones bandwagon. Great player, but I'm not sure where he fits, unless the plan is to bulk him up and use him as a pure DT. As a day 3 steal, I'd be thrilled. As a 1st/2nd round pick, no thanks. But again, it's nothing against the player.

5. I really think that cap control will be a major theme of the offseason. Keeping positional cost down. With Nate Solder looking at big money in a few years (hopefully by which time we will be out fro under Mankins' contract) I'm not sure we can pay Vollmer, unless he takes a team-friendly deal. So we either tag/transition him or move on with a low priced replacement, based on whether the team thinks Cannon is ready. Add a stud like Cooper or Fluker and you keep the positional cost down for another few years. Dan Connolly could be a cap casualty as early as 2014 ($4M is a lot to pay for what he has provided, and he will be 32 in 2014. Guys like Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, Kyle Long or Terron Armstead would be great pick ups, again, if we could find enough draft capital.

6. I really like the idea of getting Kyle Juszczyk as a FB/H-back. Don't know if he'll last till #202 (which will get pushed back 10 picks or so by comp picks).

In general, I believe that the most likely route to both short and long term success is to stick to the proven philosophy of building around the trenches, and fill in the other positions at reasonable cost. Don't overspend on WRs and DBs.

manxman2601 · 01-27-2013, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayoclinic

Some thoughts back at you:

1. I agree that Ansah will go. Someone will go for the potential, and top 20. I'm not a big fan of Walter Football, but they had this comment:

WalterFootball.com: 2013 Senior Bowl Draft Stock

People will forget the mediocre week of practice and raw technique, and remember what Ansah was able to accomplish against high level competition with his athleticism, which will undoubtedly be featured at the Combine.

At least we got Armond Armstead.

2. I think the biggest problem that the Pats have right now in general is that they have a tight cap situation and few draft picks. If we had 12 picks like we did in 2009-2011, this would be much easier. We could load up on 3 receivers, add a couple of DBs, a pass rusher, a DT, and a couple of linemen. This is a really deep draft, and there will be good talent available in the 5th round, and possibly later. But with only 5 picks, we don't have the resources to do that, so we have to pick and choose. Some people will argue that we need fewer players, but with our cap situation, low cost depth is vitally important. And the draft is the best way to get low cost depth for 3-4 years.

3. As a day 3 alternative to Ansah, 3 guys currently stand out to me: Lavarr Edwards, Cornelius Washington, and David Bass. Those guys all have a lot of athleticism and upside. They could be worked in as sub rushers while they develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of them turns out to be a stud. The problem right now is that we don't have any day 3 picks before the 7th round. But I'd be thrilled to get one of those 3 guys and have them bump Jermaine Cunningham off the roster. There's no way in hell I spend a 1st round pick on Tank Carradine coming off an ACL injury - and with Armstead and Ninkovich already at DE, I probably don't want to use a 1st round pick on a pass rusher, anyway. Not enough value.

4. With Armond Armstead signed, I'm also off the Datone Jones bandwagon. Great player, but I'm not sure where he fits, unless the plan is to bulk him up and use him as a pure DT. As a day 3 steal, I'd be thrilled. As a 1st/2nd round pick, no thanks. But again, it's nothing against the player.

5. I really think that cap control will be a major theme of the offseason. Keeping positional cost down. With Nate Solder looking at big money in a few years (hopefully by which time we will be out fro under Mankins' contract) I'm not sure we can pay Vollmer, unless he takes a team-friendly deal. So we either tag/transition him or move on with a low priced replacement, based on whether the team thinks Cannon is ready. Add a stud like Cooper or Fluker and you keep the positional cost down for another few years. Dan Connolly could be a cap casualty as early as 2014 ($4M is a lot to pay for what he has provided, and he will be 32 in 2014. Guys like Menelik Watson, Reid Fragel, Kyle Long or Terron Armstead would be great pick ups, again, if we could find enough draft capital.

6. I really like the idea of getting Kyle Juszczyk as a FB/H-back. Don't know if he'll last till #202 (which will get pushed back 10 picks or so by comp picks).

In general, I believe that the most likely route to both short and long term success is to stick to the proven philosophy of building around the trenches, and fill in the other positions at reasonable cost. Don't overspend on WRs and DBs.

1. Don't know if you watched the Senior Bowl, but Juszczyk is having a monster game as a blocking FB.

2. I'm not as high on Armond Armstead as you are. I think he's a great add as an interior guy but I think Datone Jones will be batter as a pass rushing DE as will Carradine. I think we'll just have to disagree on that.

3. I've not seen a single thing of David Bass and it's really frustrating.

4. My Wheaton binky-ism is reaching Mark Barron levels. Setting myself up for disappointment I fear.

5. As aside, had my first look at Garrett Gilkey in a real game. He's not very good unfortunately. Moving on. Armstead wasn't great but mostly held his own.

captain stone · 01-27-2013, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manxman2601

You should watch Jake Knott (Iowa State). Very good cover LB.

What's the latest on his shoulder?

I.M. Fletcher · 01-27-2013, 03:15 PM

The more I analyze the Pats cap situation, the less likely I see either Welker or Vollmer being back. I could see them throw the transitionary tag on Vollmer to try and force a big offer, but that would be the extent of it. Even with a backloaded salary structure to both, especially on shorter deals, you cant go much lower than 5mill each. Combine either Talib or an equivalent for the defensive backfield, I just dont know if you can drop a quarter of your cap space on either of those guys.

I have been mulling my own "blueprint" which carries a lot of similarities to you Mayo, but the Vollmer contract is one I am finally starting to give up on. Outside of a cheap 1 year prove-me contract, there arent many situations I can include him.

This team almost always operates with a 5mil bubble of protection as well, and there is enough depth spots that already need attention, and very few restructurings that are worth the effort that I am thinking this offseason will be very dissappointing for a lot of fans.

***cstjohn17*** · 01-27-2013, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I.M. Fletcher

I am thinking this off season will be very disappointing for a lot of fans.

Most years the Patriots announce the off season by saying "prepare to be under whelmed..."

I.M. Fletcher · 01-27-2013, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cstjohn17

Most years the Patriots announce the off season by saying "prepare to be under whelmed..."

Yep. The talk of Revis and Wallace and Bowe are humourous enough, but I think when the fans see all pro tackles and receivers walk without replacement, the realization will be a stark contrast from January dreams.

***DaBruinz*** · 01-27-2013, 03:58 PM

With the additions of Armstead and Vega (providing he's released from his Blue Bombers Contract), do you see the Pats moving back to the 3-4?

I think that Armstead could be the RDE that we haven't had since Seymour. Then, the Pats could plug and play at LDE whomever they felt could fit and use Jones, Ninkovich, Hightower on the outside with Vega..Or Hightower could swing inside when Spikes goes off on passing downs..

***DaBruinz*** · 01-27-2013, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I.M. Fletcher

Yep. The talk of Revis and Wallace and Bowe are humourous enough, but I think when the fans see all pro tackles and receivers walk without replacement, the realization will be a stark contrast from January dreams.

If you think that the Pats will let Welker and Vollmer walk without replacing them then you are seriously mis-informed about this team. They already have Marcus Cannon to fill in at RT. Not my first choice, but he's proven to be capable. And the Pats could sign someone like Brian Hartline or Danny Amendola to replace Welker.

Let's not forget that the Pats will also be getting Gronkowski and Jake Ballard back from the IR. We could, very well, see Hernandez lining up at WR more often than not.

***mayoclinic*** · 01-27-2013, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by I.M. Fletcher

The more I analyze the Pats cap situation, the less likely I see either Welker or Vollmer being back. I could see them throw the transitionary tag on Vollmer to try and force a big offer, but that would be the extent of it. Even with a backloaded salary structure to both, especially on shorter deals, you cant go much lower than 5mill each. Combine either Talib or an equivalent for the defensive backfield, I just dont know if you can drop a quarter of your cap space on either of those guys.

I have been mulling my own "blueprint" which carries a lot of similarities to you Mayo, but the Vollmer contract is one I am finally starting to give up on. Outside of a cheap 1 year prove-me contract, there arent many situations I can include him.

This team almost always operates with a 5mil bubble of protection as well, and there is enough depth spots that already need attention, and very few restructurings that are worth the effort that I am thinking this offseason will be very dissappointing for a lot of fans.

I personally agree that the more I look at the cap situation, the less likely I see the Pats keeping Welker and Vollmer. It depends in part on to what degree they are confident in finding replacements, either currently in house (Cannon, Edelman) or via FA or the draft. It's possible that a team-friendly deal could be worked out with Vollmer, or that the team could tag him to buy a year's time if necessary, but I think the most likey scenario is one where he walks. I personally think Welker's gone, unless he's willing to take a really team-friendly deal, and I can't imagine that happening.

If I had to guess, I'd say that we will be seriously "underwhelmed" this FA and there will be mass cries of gloom and doom from the fan base and the media. But the team will survive and perhaps even thrive next year, and will be better off in the long run for not tying up too much of it's valuable cap room. JMHO.