mayoclinic

Well, I finally seem to have called one right:

Patriots get CB Talib from Bucs - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

That makes me about 1 for 1000 in terms of "predictions" - not bad, if I say so myself.

Seriously, trying to predict what the Pats will do is an exercise in futility. But taking a shot at Talib made sense to me IF the Bucs were willing to deal for a reasonable price:

- Talib is only 26 years old, is still on his rookie deal, and has a ton of talent.
- He is a big, physical CB who can play press and man, a style that would complement Alfonzo Dennard and Ras-I Dowling (if he can ever stay on the field) perfectly), allowing Devin McCourty to move to FS where McCourty is a huge asset
- The Pats seem to need a veteran presence at CB to stabilize the secondary. They have enoug youth, so continuing to draft talented but inexperienced CBs just didn't make sense to me.
- Talib obviously needs a fresh start.
- If the asking price is cheap enough, it's worth the gamble. If Talib bombs the Pats can still go after someone like DRC or Grimes in FA. They have the inside track at signing Talib after this year, but if his price is too high they can still go after other options.

I wouldn't mind seeing them move Pat Chung before the trade deadline. Detroit needs safety help badly, especially with Louis Delmas being out. I'm not sure what the extent of Chung's injury is, but if he's due back soon maybe the Pats could flip him to Detroit for something similar to what they gave TB for Talib, effecting making it a Chung for Talib swap. That would be a good deal in my book.

I'm very pleased.

Step 1 of the master plan is coming along nicely.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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Luxusdk

Really dont think there was time to slip a safety off to Detroit, but i'm like you willing to skip Chung. Would have been perfect if they payed a 4th for him, but hello, WE GOT A CORNER.

Really can't see why they shouldn't sign DRC even if Talib work's. Both are young and would close the secondary for good.

mayoclinic

$$$$$$$$$$

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

mayoclinic

So, 6 days later, it seems like the FO is on board with #1. Ras-I Dowling has unfortunately ended up on IR once again and Sterling Moore has been cut. But Devin McCourty had another solid game at safety against the Rams in London, and the FO actually pulled the trigger and traded a 4th round pick in 2013 to Tampa Bay for Aqib Talib and a 2013 7th round pick.

At this point I continue to feel that it makes sense not to focus heavily on the secondary in the draft. There is a nucleus of young talent: McCourty, Wilson, Dennard. Ebner is a developmental prospect who could blossom. Dowling is an enigma - he's not a lock for the roster next year, but he still is a talented kid who could pull it together if he can ever stay healthy. I don't personally feel that Chung are Arrington are likely to be a part of the future of the team. Gregory seems to me like a steady and versatile veteran presence, in the James Sanders kind of mold, but with better coverage ability.

I'm hoping that Talib works out and can be extended long term. That will obviously be a key to assessing the long term plans for the secondary. The other key will be the safety position, and whether Devin McCourty stays there and how Tavon Wilson develops. I could see bringing in a FA depending on who is available and the price. Dashon Goldson will probably be franchised. I can't see Buffalo letting Jarius Byrd get away to a division foe. Some have suggested that Ed Reed could hit the open market. We'll see. But with the Talib trade, the secondary situation seems to be solidifying.

That leaves LDE, DT, interior OL and WR as priorities for the draft ...

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

ATippett56

Congratulations on your call for trading Aqib Talib!

Let's hope Talib is worth a 2013 4th round draft pick this season and perhaps beyond.

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mayoclinic

Thanks.

I'm very excited about the Talib trade. Love the idea of committing to playing press/man CB with Talib/Dennard/Cole (and perhaps Dowling in the future), and I believe that McCourty playing FS provides a much more secure level of deep protection than we've had so far. If we're able to effecively bump receivers off their routes and play aggressive man coverage and play more aggressively on the front 7, it will dramatically change how our defense looks over the 2nd half of the season. So I see the addition of Talib plus the emergence of Dennard and the move of McCourty to safety as keys to the transformation of the defense, at least for this year.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

ATippett56

I respectfully disagree on left defensive end position since the New England Patriots have five defensive ends under contract for the 2013 NFL Season:

Chandler Jones
Rob Ninkovich
Jermaine Cunningham
Jake Bequette
Justin Francis

With regard to the defensive tackle position, the New England Patriots desperatively need a subpackage interior pass rush presence. Sheldon Richardson, DT from Missouri looks better and better by the day. On a one year minimum veteran contract with a miniscule signing and workout bonus, Myron Pryor could be retained for the 2013 NFL Season.

Vince Wilfork
Kyle Love
Brandon Deaderick
Myron Pryor
Sheldon Richardson

Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly will both turn 31 years of age next season, so an interior offensive lineman is a no brainer. Donald Thomas will be an unrestricted free agent.

Safety is still a higher priority than wide receiver since the New England Patriots only have three safeties under contract for the 2013 NFL Season:

Steven Gregory (meh)
Tavon Wilson
Nate Ebner

If the New England Patriots do not trade down from the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft, I can foresee the following scenario:

1st Round: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
2nd Round: Larry Warford, OG Kentucky
3rd Round: Safety [Note 1]

Note 1: Baccari Rambo, FS Georgia (DS Rating 91); Shawn Williams, SS Georgia (DS Rating 127)

NFL Draft - 2013 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

NFL Draft - 2013 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

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Snake Eyes

What needs can be addressed in free agency? We're not going to get a stud pass rusher or O-lineman in free agency so I'd rather try to draft what we can't buy.

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ATippett56

The New England Patriots will need to seriously consider re-signing the following unrestriced free agents:

Wes Welker (the straw that stirs the drink in the Patriots pass offense)
Sebastian Vollmer
Aqib Talib
Marquice Cole
Niko Koutouvides ?
Tracy White ?
Derrick Martin ?

The New England Patriots will need to seriously consider tendering the following restricted free agents:

Jake Ballard
Michael Who-man ?
Greg Salas (ERFA)
Dane Fletcher
Jeff Tarpinian (ERFA)
Sterling Moore (ERFA) ?

Mike Rivera (don't know his free agent status) ?

Heck, there may not be enough salary cap room to take care of the aforementioned unrestricted and restricted free agents. In addition, I would like the New England Patriots to bring back wide receiver Jabar Gaffney for one more season.

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The End of the Chad Ochostinko Era!

ay-yo

Nice call Mayo. However I have to disagree with some of your roster assessment:

Front 7:
Nink is on pace for 54 tackles, 8 sacks, 8 FF and 4 FR. (I know sacks aren't the best stat but I can't find pressure stats). He's at least adequate from that spot. Cunningham has looked like a respectable backup (1.5 sacks) and Bequette will almost certainly get another year and represents a player with some potential. I'm not sure where league averages lie but our top 3 DE's are on pace for 23 sacks. However the rest of the team is only on pace for 11 sacks. Part of the reason the rest of the team is only on pace for 11 sacks has to do with the lack of blitzing. But our interior pressure has been absolutely awful as Kyle Love is the only BIG DL with a sack (he has 1.5).

Secondary:
Best case scenario:
- Wilson progress throughout the year
- McCourty proves to be one of the better safeties in the league
- Talib plays up to his potential and resigns at a reasonable level of play
- Dennard continues to look like an NFL quality player

That still leaves us with no 3rd CB for 2013 unless you count Dowling but at this point counting on Dowling for anything is unwise. He couldn't beat out a bunch of scrubs for playing time for the majority of this season. His job is absolutely on the line and the plan should be to have him compete with low round draft picks for the 5th CB spot.

Upgrading the 3rd CB spot from scrub to league average will be significantly easier than upgrading the LDE spot from an average to young stud. Additionally there's the whole "your only as good as your weakest link" argument which supports addressing 3rd CB before LDE. I'd like to see us enter next year with something like:

S: McCourty, Wilson, Gregory, Ebner
CB: Talib, #1 pick, Dennard, pick 2 (Arrington, Cole, Dowling, late round picks, vet min guys)

And all of that is assuming best case scenario. It likely won't turn out that good and we'll need even more secondary help (sigh). Anyways here's to hoping our secondary turns it around.