State

Yeah, I read with a cursory eye Mayo's magnum opuses on the drafts the last decade or so of various teams.

However, I'm focused like a laser beam on the recent past. I'm not an antiquarian about this.

I'm convinced we could have won the last SB with a speedster. So, yeah, this is what I come away with.

And if Dowling goes down, ahem, again, you'll be hearing much more of it.

fester

The Patriots could have won the Super Bowl if the ball was 6 inches to the inside on one play (Welker), or 6 inches to the outside on another play (Manningham), OR 97 other equally valid and more immediate points.

When we are talking about winning or losing the Super Bowl based on total ball placement variance of a foot, than almost any change could be asserted to be the difference between a win or a loss.

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patchick

So the 2011 Patriots didn't need any more help at defensive back? Weird, I could have sworn...

fester

Do you know how to do decision process analysis, pre-facto instead of post-facto?

Looking at the process of the decision instead of the end result as the result is unknowable at the point of the decision provides more insight than chirping from the peanut gallery.

Here is what was known pre-draft 2011 about Dowling --- very talented, but has some injury issues. The talent when healthy is sufficient for 1st round grades but is downgraded due to injury risk to a high 2nd rounder.

NFL Draft Scout
NFL.com
Walter Football

We also know that the Patriots tend to go for sure things in the 1st round and then go after tarnished gems in the 2nd round (the reason why a player drops to the 2nd round is that there is something (production, size, competition, speed, injury history etc) that is not prototypical). That strategy produces boom picks (Gronkowski with back issues, Vollmer with level of competition and back issues), not yet proven picks (Dowling) and busts, but so does every other drafting strategy. The relevant question is what proportion of each category (success/failure/not yet proven) each strategy picks.

But going back to Dowling, the Patriots took a very talented player at a position of need who was coached by a former NFL coach with Parcells/Belicheck tree connections, and had some injury concerns at roughly the spot that conventional wisdom was projecting that player to be picked (late 1st, early 2nd)

That too me does not look like the Patriots deviated from their drafting philosophy of being willing to take risks in the 2nd round for high ceiling players nor does it look like Belicheck telling everyong that he is smarter than they are.....

Not every pick will work out, and not every pick will be a 5 time Pro-Bowler. Failure is inherent within the drafting process, and once the draft gets past the blue-chippers (where at least one flame-out failure is probable), every prospect has at least a few warts on them.

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mayoclinic

No. That would be Antwan Randle El, according to the Senior Bowl website. I was talking about Deion Branch, an entirely different WR.

Official Website of the Senior Bowl: All-Time Senior Bowl Roster

It's hard to find material as far back as the 2002 draft. But here's NFL Draft Countdown's prospect ranking lists and final mock draft:

Draft Countdown - 2002 NFL Draft Rankings
Draft Countdown - 2002 Final Mock Draft

Branch was rated as the #22 WR and didn't make the final 3 round mock.

Greg Knopping did a review of BB's draft picks last year and rated Branch #6 on his list of BB's best draft picks. Knopping noted:

Top 10 Belichick-Era Patriots Draft Successes: #6 Deion Branch - Pats Pulpit

Again, it's hard to find corroborative material, but I don't think it's a stretch to say that many people thought that Branch was a reach when the Pats took him at the end of the 2nd round in 2002. But remember it however you like.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

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DaBruinz

Having the rod in there to begin with, not so much..

Having the first rod be DEFECTIVE and SNAP during a practice where you landed on it is a bad omen.

Landing on your other wrist just as you are breaking out and having it snap similarly to your original injury is just pure dumb luck.

DaBruinz

How has the "Conventional Wisdom" proven correct? Because Dowling's injury history in college was over-blown by people like yourself? Prior to Dowling's senior year, he'd played in 35 of 37 games. You act like him suffering the knee injury and then the fractured ankle were done on purpose.. Or is it just that you are upset with the Pats because they chose Wilson this year and you had to eat some of your words on him?

Dowling only went on the IR because the Pats needed the roster spot due to the OTHER injuries they had.

Yes, and Greg Bedard is the be all end all in talent evaluation regarding the OTAs..

Yes, it was such a gamble that Dowling was able to miss all of TC but still be the starting LCB opposite McCourty for the first game of the season despite having Leigh Bodden and Arrington on the roster..

Any bets that Torrey Smith wasn't even on the Pats radar at the time because having a burner isn't what the Pats offense needed at the time. But, since you brought Torrey Smith up, here is the run down on Smith's route running abilities from NFLDraftscout.com

One of the big issues people have is that our "middle" is too clogged with Welker, Gronk and Hernandez. Now you want Smith in there as well since that is one of the better routes that he runs???

The only people who will think that Belichick would look imprudent are the people who are arrogant enough to think that they know more than Belichick and the teams medical staff..

DaBruinz

*ROFLMAO* You really are such a tool. Ever since you had to eat your words on Tavon Wilson, you've had your panties in a wad over Belichick and his drafting during the 2nd round.

I find it laughable that you essentially threaten the board with more of your ignorant ranting if Dowling get's injured again, but you make not guarantees to eat your words and admit you were talking out your arse if proven wrong..

Typical blowhard who is arrogant enough to think he knows more than Belichick.

Oh, on a separate note. How would Smith have helped the Pats win the SB if he can't run crisp timing routes? Which is one of the knocks against him....

captain stone

Or Jabaal Sheard, another Pass-Rusher to help Mark Anderson put more pressure on shEli Manning
when it mattered most. Otherwise, I agree w/ the premise.

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captain stone

Cannon was taken in the 5th round. His case does not apply here.

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