Off The Grid

Coach Bill The Mad (Genius) ~ Trading Back!!

For the education of those of you who think that Mad Bill's incessant Trade Backs ~ trading a 3rd for a Deferred 2nd, that sort of thing ~ disappear down some Rabbit Hole...And for the amusement of those who know better...I thought I'd invest a little time in doing some quick and dirty Mathematics.

What I'm going to do here is simply add up the Book Values ~ that's Draft Value Chart Dollars, for those scoring at home!! ~ of the Picks we've ended up with, in recent years, and compare them to what we would've ended up with if Mad Bill had simply stood pat ~ a simple exercise, but I'm kind of curious, myself!!

1 ~ To save myself a lot of work, I'm going to stick to the approximate Book Values of the first 3 Rounds, and I'll also take the liberty of rounding off, if the mood strikes me!!

2 ~ To further clarify things, I'll also include the applicable Trade Downs..and Trade Ups!!

3 ~ I've excluded trades for Players ~ Wes Welker, Matt Cassel, Deion Branch ~ and Comps, of course.

2007

Before All Trade Backs: #24, 28, and 91 = 740 + 660 + 136 = 1536 Points.

1 ~ #28 to Miners for 2008 1st Rounder ~ #07.
2 ~ #91 to Raiders for 2008 3rd Rounder ~ #69.

After Trade Backs: #24 = 740 = 740 Points.

Change = - 796 Points.

2008

Before All Trade Backs: #62 + 94 = 284 + 124 = 408.

1 ~ #7 to Saints for #10 + #78.
2 ~ #69 to Bolts for 2009 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #10, 62, 78, and 94 = 1300 + 284 + 200 + 124 = 1908.

Change = + 1500 Points.

2009

Before All Trade Backs: #23, 58, and 89 = 760 + 320 + 145 = 1225.

1 ~ #23 to Ravens for #26 (5th Rounder doesn't weigh, here).
2 ~ #26 to Packers for #41, #73, and #83.
3 ~ #47 to Raiders (Again: Later Rounders don't apply, here) for #40.
4 ~ #73 to Jaguars for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #44.
5 ~ #89 to Titans for 2010 2nd Rounder ~ #47.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #40, 41, 58, and 83 = 500 + 490 + 320 + 175 = 1485.

Change = + 260 Points.

2010

Before All Trade Backs: #22, 53, and 85 = 780 + 370 + 165 = 1315.

1 ~ #22 to Broncos for #24 (And Aaron The Navigator!!).
2 ~ #24 to CowBoys for #27 and #90.
3 ~ #44 to Raiders for #42.
4 ~ #47 to Cards for #58 and #89.
5 ~ #58 to Hoosten for #62 (And Zoltan The Space Emperor...of Space!!).
6 ~ #89 to Panthers for 2011 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Ups + Downs: #27, 42, 53, 62, and 90 = 680 + 480 + 370 + 284 + 140 = 1954.

Change = + 641 Points.

2011

Before All Trade Backs: #28, 60, and 92 = 660 + 300 + 132 = 1092.

1 ~ #28 to Saints for #56 and 2012 1st Rounder.
2 ~ #60 to Hoosten for #73 and change.
3 ~ #92 to Raiders for 2012 2nd Rounder.

After All Trade Backs ~ And Downs: #33, 56, and 73 = 580 + 340 + 225 = 1145.

Change = + 53 Points.

2012

Before All Trade Backs: #31, 62, and 93 = 600 + 284 + 128 = 1012.

After All Trade Backs ~ So Far!!: #27, 31, 48, 62, and 93 = 680 + 600 + 420 + 284 + 128 = 2112.

Change = + 1100 Points!!

Let's Tally That Up, Shall We??

2007 = - 0796 Points.
2008 = + 1500 Points.
2009 = + 0260 Points.
2010 = + 0641 Points.
2011 = + 0053 Points.
2012 = + 1100 Points.

Total = + 2758 Points!!

That's like getting 4 1st Rounders ~ #26 ~ in 6 years...for FREE!!

Put another way...

That's like getting 10 2nd rounders ~ #63 ~ TEN Second Rounders!!! ~ for FREE!!!

So much for those who think that Mad Bill's just hiding those Picks under'is mattress!!

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Love HURTS!!

manxman2601

So just so I understand. We get 10 free 2nd rounders and still get to the superbowl. And people here question BB's approach to the draft.

Snake Eyes

I like the general approach, I just have issue with how he's used many of the picks.

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Metaphors

While it is difficult to do, you conceptually have to adjust value over time. For example, if I trade 700 points in 2011 and get 800 points in 2012, that +100 point gain realistically doesn't account for the value of having results in 2011 and having a 2nd year vet (instead of a rookie) in 2012.

That being said, your post accurately points out the compounded value of trading in the next year. You take a hit the first year (as you show) but it allows you in subsequent years to get the guys you need in the draft while still trading into the next year. The indefinite 2nd round dividend as others have observed.

The real bonus for the approach is that occasionally you get tremendous value in the next draft and can draft a player you otherwise would have no chance at getting. So while the approach is primarily an annuity (defined value with no downside), it is also a little bit of a lottery ticket or hedge fund against the team you are trading to. All teams trading future 1st round picks think they are on the brink of a deep playoff run. When a team tanks like SF, you get a player like Mayo. Even when a team does well like NO, the extra first still allows you to continue the process into the next draft.

The key to the approach is still getting your guys while keeping the process going. So I understand people criticizing Belichick for player evaluation but I'm totally with you on his intelligent use of trading draft picks.

BradyManny

Mind boggling. Well done, OTG.

BradyManny

Some of the missed 2nd rounders kill - especially whiffing on Butler/Brace. That one really hurts.

Snake Eyes

We could have had Connor Barwin

__________________
"The secret of steel has always carried with it a mystery, you must learn it's riddle, Conan, you must learn its discipline, for no one in this world can you trust, not men, not women, not beasts...this you can trust"


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BradyManny

True...turns out the board binky that year wasn't so bad after all.

Lesean McCoy also would've been available there, and that would certainly be filling our RB need right now.

But I can't judge the Butler/Brace picks. I was high on both those guys. Heck, I still haven't closed the door on Brace, and I still think Butler might have something to offer in the NFL as a nickel guy somewhere.

Overall, if you look at that round 2 - you see why Belichick likes to stockpile. It affords misses.

So we struck out on 2, but we got Vollmer - which means the 2nd round still provided us one more starting caliber players than the round did for probably 75% of the other teams drafting that day. Not a lot of gems in the 2009 2nd round if you look at it.

mrscruff

Great effort. Just a point of clarification, in 2008 #7 has not been figured into the calculation before all trade backs or am I missing something?

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ATippett56

If the New England Patriots find a willing partner, I fully expect either the #27 overall pick or #31 overall pick to be traded in the 2012 NFL Draft.

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