manxman2601

Normally I'm not in favour of pre-draft trade involving picks rather than players but the more I think about this one, the more it makes sense to me, both from a Patriots perspective and from the perspective of the other team. Speaking of which...

The Arizona Cardinals sit at #13 in the draft. They do not have a second round pick. What they do have is a pretty big need for a LT specifically and OL generally. They also need a No2 WR and a pass rusher. Their pick No13 is worth 1150 points. Our picks #27 and #48 are worth 1100 points and I think the advantage to the Cards of picking up a second rounder outweighs the loss of 50 points in trade value (if necessary, we could add a player to make up the difference (Ron Brace or Jermaine Cunningham spring to mind).

Why it benefits the Cardinals: Unless they really like DeCastro and Reiff, there would be more benefit to trading down to #27 and picking up a J Martin, Mike Adams, Peter Konz or Kevin Zeitler along with a second round pick than staying put and getting Reiff/DeCastro and then fighting over scraps to fill out their roster with the rest of their draft. The second round could net them either a pass rusher or WR (Ronnell Lewis/Mohamed Sanu for example). And there's no guarantee that Reiff and Decastro will be there with the Bills and Chiefs picking ahead of them.

Why it benefits the Patriots: We don't know what the Pats board looks like but going by need/BPA let's assume that Brockers/Cox/Barron/Kirkpatrick are fairly high on it. Pick 13 puts us ahead of most teams likely to draft those players. One, maybe two might be gone but all four won't be. Now this is why it needs to be a pre-draft trade. If on draft day, the Patriots are sitting at #13 and a number of their highly rated prospects are still available, they are in a position to trade back incrementally until the value of what's still available makes it necessary to make the pick. We also have pick #31 available that acts as a backstop should another quality player fall or we could use #31 to trade back into the second round either picking up additional picks or picks next year.

So in a nutshell:

This trade puts in perfect position to run the draft board based on the prospects we like.
The only loss is a second rounder (we still have another one).
We can still add picks by trading back from #13 or #31
If an elite player falls like Richardson or DeCastro's available, then we have that option too.
We are no longer subject to the decisions of teams ahead of us but are masters of our own draft destiny.

I think this would be a win for the Patriots and might be seen by the Cards organisation as a necessary evil to get the best value out of this draft.

Thoughts?

conway

I like the idea of trading up and Arizona seems like a potential partner. I hope it's not for Brockers or Barron. Too high for Barron and Brockers seems like a bad idea to me.

I could also see the Bengals, Eagles and Rams as potential movers.

mgteich

ARIZONA
Arizona should not do this. I disagree that Martin or Adams will be there anywhere near 27. If they want a OT, #13 is OK. You indicate that ARIZ may be also be willing to use a 1st rounder for an interior OL. DeCastro may be the best in years. So, at 13, I might consider trading down a couple of spots, depending on how many OL's are still there. Obviously, they would jump at Reiff. Think of it in reverse. If we need a starting OT, we would want to trade our #27 and #48 for #13 in heartbeat, rather than wait at #27 and hope. In fact, we arguably would have been in that position last year, if was we had drafted a defensive player instead of Solder.

PATRIOTS
Are we really willing to trade up, even if our man isn't there? Perhaps it would be OK if the patriots liked ALL four of the players you list. IMHO, Cox is the only one worth the #13 pick.

BOTTOM LINE
An OT is a great position of need. ARIZ shouldn't do it. They are better partner for a trade forward with the patriots, either for our #31 or #48.

manxman2601

From Arizona's POV, I disagree. Jonathan Martin is unlikely to be drafted higher than #20 and Mike Adams might just scrape into the bottom of the first round. Reiff's stock too is in flux. Mayock sees him later in the first round although there are still some projections holding him up there. The advantage of Arizona trading down is that a) they get back a second rounder which has increased value this year because there's little tail off between the bottom of the first round and the mid-second, and B) they have better flexibility to move up again for the right OL prospect whether it be Cordy Glenn, Martin or Adams.

I actually think Fletcher Cox might be the worst fit of the four I mentioned for the Patriots - it takes some projecting to see him as a successful two gapper.

everlong

I'd do it if I'm AZ. For the Patriots I still like trading 27 + 31 to SD for 18 + 49 for instance. Somebody from that elite group will make it to 18 and then you still have 48, 49 and 62 to pick up some really good quality in the second.

__________________
"When Peyton Manning was a kid he used to go to bed at night and dream about throwing the winning touchdown for the Saints in the Superbowl. And on Sunday he did."

There's only two conclusions for Patriots fans on rookies. They are either a bust or being fitted for their bust in Canton.


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The Scrizz

This is exactly why you don't see pre-draft trades. If the guy Arizona loves ends up being still available at #13 they'd be kicking themselves. If he isn't and the guy the Pats love is available then you might see it happen.

I agree with MG, Zona w/out a 2nd is a great trade-up partner. I'd toss them #31 for their 3rd and a 1st next year.

__________________
I was like, ‘Dang! Um, Mr. Brady, can we line up?’ He didn’t care. He was like, ‘You’re not going to line up.’ When we turned around one time I checked back around and my hand was going to the grass and they were like, ‘Hut!’ And I said, ‘Noooooooooooo!’

jsull87

Fun to talk about in theory. Stupid business and football decision in practice to trade up before the draft unless it's for the number 1 (of this year number 2) pick.

You can have this trade deal in place pending a player being there but not before you have that important detail known.

Not saying tradings stupid just any pre draft 13 for 27 and 48 type trade is stupid until you know who will be there at 13.

manxman2601

I kind of agree with you (even though it was my stupid idea ). It came to me in a flash and didn't think it through before I started this thread. The pre-draft bit came because I thought it necessary to be able to trade down from 13 as an option. But yes, on hindsight, it's impractical.

Ochmed Jones

I agree. OK to have the outline of the trade in place, but you only pull the trigger on the trade when Arizona is on the clock.

But the other part of the equation is that the right player has to be there. Is there a player in this draft, not playing QB, that is worth a 1st and a 2nd?

BB has signed a lot of Free agents, but there are still positions on the roster, that the right first round pick can instantly make better.

As for the DE's in this draft. As I have said before,none are year one starters in our defense, but come year two and year three, look out because they are going to be special.

patfanken

I think you are over thinking the "2 gap" thing. Its a technique like any other, and can be learned.... OVER TIME. Cox has all the size/strength/motor/and coachability factors you'd want in a 3-4 DE. He could easily add 2 gappng to his other skills over the course of 2 to 3 years

But the reason you'd trade up to get him is that he can help you TODAY as a penetrating interior pass rusher from either the 3-4 or 4-3 in your pass rushing sub packages. That's what would make a trade up worth it.....IF the player you want was there.

Max. I am NOT usually a fan of trade ups outside of the "elite 8" level. But what you proposed makes sense for both teams

I tell you what - Lets do it and come away with this draft.

1. #13 Fletcher Cox - DE/DT Penetrating interior pass rusher - future core starter
2. #31 Shea McClelan DE/OLB - developmental OLB - future core starter
3. #52 Tru Johnson CB/S - Hybrid CB/S
4 # 93 Markelle Martin -S- speed cover S
5. #126 Chris Owusu WR- speed developmental receiver with good size (hide on PS)