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Old 01-16-2008, 02:12 PM   #1
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Default Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

Thanks to NFL network I have had the luxury of watching several of the Pats games for a second and sometimes third time and in the words of Stan or Klye, "I've learned something today"

For the first half or so of the year, we ran our normal defense. Coverage in the back eight was designed to look one way and then morphed into something different when the ball was snapped. It was difficult for opposing QBs to figure out where the double team was coming from.
Then Colvin got hurt and Thomas goes to the outside and Junior steps in full time on the inside.
At that point, the defense becomes very vanilla. I lot of the exotic sedondary looks disappear and we start playing teams straight up. Now we have 3 sometimes 4 rushers and the rest of the defense playing very soft zone. Opposing teams start to figure this out. Routes are adjusted to a.) hit the weak underneath spots in the zone and B.) test the deeper levels with longer routes. Opposing QBs growing less fearful of a blitz off the edge or up the gut are holding the ball a little longer. Suddenly opposing QBs are putting up good to great numbers against us and our pass rush is MIA. Even chicken little himslef Eli Manning looks like a stud hurling the ball down our throats.

In the Jacksonville game, it looks like BB tried to go back to the exotic defense scheme and unfortunately for BB, the combination of Gay, Junior and Thomas missed the memo because in the first half of that game, we had slow footed Jacksonville WRs running wide open through tons of busted coverage plays. The Jacksonville QB looks like the second coming of Dan Marino.
So in the second half of the game we go back to the vanilla defense, but then we blitz off of it to try and break the QB's rythem and we catch a break or two when the Jacksonville Wrs drop a couple of balls they should have caught.

What does all this mean? I think when Colvin went down, it moved Thomas into a position he was not and still remains uncomfortable in. I think Thomas is struggling to adjust to the fact that we play a different defense every week. This has had a ripple affect through the entire defense and affected what types of schemes we can and can not run.

Botom Line: BB has to create more base defense depth at LB for next season. Calling 38 year old men out of retirement is not the answer. To that end, he must have 3 reliable players for the base defense, not ST, for both the inside and outside. Now whether he does it through FA or through the draft remains to be seen, but at this point I would not be surprised to see us take an OLB in the first round (C Long or Gholston are the only ones I see as potential fits) as well as coming back late day 1 or early day 2 and taking an inside guy.

Is this the year BB does what we have all been wanting him to do for the past 3 years? I think it is.
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Old 01-16-2008, 02:15 PM   #2
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

D. Harvey may be a dark horse. He could skyrocket if he shows elite athleticism at the combine.
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Old 01-16-2008, 02:28 PM   #3
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

If you think Thomas s struggling to adjust, what do you think would happen to a rookie? I agree with everything you said about playing LB on the Pats, but drafting an athletic freak won't solve it. To fit in the scheme the player has to be NFL smart, which pigeon holes the LB position mainly to players with experience. I would bet this year in FA we'll attempt to sign another LB castoff and hope they can bloom into a Vrabel and not a Biesel.
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Old 01-16-2008, 02:38 PM   #4
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

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Originally Posted by WhiZa View Post
If you think Thomas s struggling to adjust, what do you think would happen to a rookie? I agree with everything you said about playing LB on the Pats, but drafting an athletic freak won't solve it. To fit in the scheme the player has to be NFL smart, which pigeon holes the LB position mainly to players with experience. I would bet this year in FA we'll attempt to sign another LB castoff and hope they can bloom into a Vrabel and not a Biesel.
Yes exactly. Or draft a player with what they think is 'smarts'. Although they would not likely be drafted really high.
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Old 01-16-2008, 02:50 PM   #5
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

It would help if some more colleges played 3-4. Why can't Groh get any studs in there that aren't character risks?
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Old 01-16-2008, 02:55 PM   #6
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

My concern is that i'm not sure a DE/OLB conversion project is worth #7. Long is probably gone anyways by our pick and I'm not sold on Gholston after seeing his unimpressive NC game performance. Other top LBs like Connor either are too small or don't seem to fit our system or aren't worth the #7 money either...
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Old 01-16-2008, 03:36 PM   #7
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

Any thoughts on taking Keith Rivers at ILB (trade down a bit)? Here's what Scouts Inc had to say:

Quote:
Possesses excellent size-potential. He's tall with adequate bulk and room on his frame to get bigger. Displays very good speed and athleticism. A sideline-to-sideline run defender. He refuses to stay blocked. Uses his hands well to sift through traffic and has a knack for disengaging. Shows great awareness and natural instincts. Read and react skills are very good. Takes solid angles in pursuit, shows upper-echelon closing burst and is a powerful tackler.
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Old 01-16-2008, 03:51 PM   #8
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Default Re: Why this may be the year to take a Linebacker early

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Originally Posted by ayjackson View Post
Any thoughts on taking Keith Rivers at ILB (trade down a bit)? Here's what Scouts Inc had to say:
I thought Rivers was mostly an OLB. Not sure if he is big enough to play ILB in our system but he certainly seems talented. And even if reports say that he has size potential, do you want to spend a first rounder on potential to bulk up? I think you can take a chance on later rounds on a smaller talented player who has potential to grow, or a DE/OLB conversion project but if you are taking an ILB or OLB in the first round and paying first round money, I would want them to be ready to play from the start in terms of size and speed, fitting our scheme, etc.

Last edited by chowder; 01-16-2008 at 03:56 PM..
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Old 01-16-2008, 04:10 PM   #9
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I thought Rivers was mostly an OLB. Not sure if he is big enough to play ILB in our system but he certainly seems talented. And even if reports say that he has size potential, do you want to spend a first rounder on potential to bulk up? I think you can take a chance on later rounds on a smaller talented player who has potential to grow, or a DE/OLB conversion project but if you are taking an ILB or OLB in the first round and paying first round money, I would want them to be ready to play from the start in terms of size and speed, fitting our scheme, etc.
Keep in mind, we can stay flexible and move outside pieces, back inside (aka Vrabel or AT). If we're sitting there at #7 staring at Gholston, then grab him and move one of the prior 2 inside. With Jenkins staying put, I'm not sure that 7th pick has the value unless it's Gholston. I wouldn't judge Gholston on the LSU game, look at the full body of work. You know LSU game planned around him. Like Pony Express has said time and again, get the combine numbers, interview the crap out of him, as BB will to see if he could morph into his system. BB will know right away, if he feels like the kid is dumb as a piece of granite and wouldn't get it, he'll move on and trade the pick.

Last edited by BradyToMoss; 01-16-2008 at 04:11 PM..
 
Old 01-16-2008, 07:48 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ochmed Jones View Post
Thanks to NFL network I have had the luxury of watching several of the Pats games for a second and sometimes third time and in the words of Stan or Klye, "I've learned something today"

For the first half or so of the year, we ran our normal defense. Coverage in the back eight was designed to look one way and then morphed into something different when the ball was snapped. It was difficult for opposing QBs to figure out where the double team was coming from.
Then Colvin got hurt and Thomas goes to the outside and Junior steps in full time on the inside.
At that point, the defense becomes very vanilla. I lot of the exotic sedondary looks disappear and we start playing teams straight up. Now we have 3 sometimes 4 rushers and the rest of the defense playing very soft zone. Opposing teams start to figure this out. Routes are adjusted to a.) hit the weak underneath spots in the zone and B.) test the deeper levels with longer routes. Opposing QBs growing less fearful of a blitz off the edge or up the gut are holding the ball a little longer. Suddenly opposing QBs are putting up good to great numbers against us and our pass rush is MIA. Even chicken little himslef Eli Manning looks like a stud hurling the ball down our throats.

In the Jacksonville game, it looks like BB tried to go back to the exotic defense scheme and unfortunately for BB, the combination of Gay, Junior and Thomas missed the memo because in the first half of that game, we had slow footed Jacksonville WRs running wide open through tons of busted coverage plays. The Jacksonville QB looks like the second coming of Dan Marino.
So in the second half of the game we go back to the vanilla defense, but then we blitz off of it to try and break the QB's rythem and we catch a break or two when the Jacksonville Wrs drop a couple of balls they should have caught.

What does all this mean? I think when Colvin went down, it moved Thomas into a position he was not and still remains uncomfortable in. I think Thomas is struggling to adjust to the fact that we play a different defense every week. This has had a ripple affect through the entire defense and affected what types of schemes we can and can not run.

Botom Line: BB has to create more base defense depth at LB for next season. Calling 38 year old men out of retirement is not the answer. To that end, he must have 3 reliable players for the base defense, not ST, for both the inside and outside. Now whether he does it through FA or through the draft remains to be seen, but at this point I would not be surprised to see us take an OLB in the first round (C Long or Gholston are the only ones I see as potential fits) as well as coming back late day 1 or early day 2 and taking an inside guy.

Is this the year BB does what we have all been wanting him to do for the past 3 years? I think it is.
The LBs will get an overhaul but it won't be as dramatic as we may expect.

OLB - Colvin, Woods
ILB - Thomas, Alexander
ILB - VETERAN, ROOKIE
OLB - Vrabel, ROOKIE

Plus a special teamer (it may be Izzo, I am not in his fan club but he has played well this year)

Some veterans to keep our eye on are Chillar (Rams), Clark (Texans), Smith (may be cut by San Fran), Crowder (Phins, may be able to opt out of his contract), Hobson (Jets, over rated but at least knows scheme), Mitchell (Giants)

My pick - Of the bunch Crowder is the jewel (I left off Dansby as he is likely to get franchised and wants a whole lot of cash).

Rookie ILB -Not the strongest year, 09 looks good with Laurintis, Megs and Brinkley. I stepped out of the box with this one in an attempt to get more speed on the field on 3rd downs, I like Gooden (Miami - final 3rd round pick), Wheeler (GT, 4th round pick) to play the role of a small speedy LB, 3rd down specialist and special teams. For the more conservative Larson (Arizona - 4th round).

End up with something like:
OLB - Colvin, Woods
ILB - Thomas, Alexander, Izzo
ILB - Crowder, Gooden
OLB - Vrabel, Crable (Vrabel and Crable, it rhymes...)
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