2011 New England Patriots Draft Big Board

[Metaphors]

Originally Posted by mgteich

These year, for myself, I see 6 groupings of players that we might want who would be expected to be drafting in certain areas of the draft.

G1: 1 - 14

G2: 15-34 3 picks

G3: 35-54

G4: 55-74 2 picks

G5: 75-125 2 picks

G6: After 126 2 picks

Right on. Was going to post almost the exact same thing. That is the method. Now for the opportunity...

DE...Can find a candidate in each group (G1-Dareus/Watt/Jordan, G2-Wilkerson/Heyward, G3-Ballard, G4-Jenkins) except there seems to be a hole in G5. G6 has some sleeper candidates in Corbin Bryant and Frank Kearse.

OLB...Loads of candidates in every group. The only weak spot seems to be G4 (Acho likely landing in that group).

OG...Nothing in G1 and limited candidates elsewhere, but they are spread out among the other groups (G2-Pouncey, G3-Watkins, G4-Ijalana, G5-Boling, G6-Moffitt). Given lack of depth, players could be overdrafted so waiting too long is probably not advised.

OT...Most interesting position since the candidates seem very clustered. A handful near the top (G1 and G2) and a second cluster much later (G5). Get one early or pick your spots in the middle rounds. Don't expect much late.

C...A pretty weak class with a couple of guys in G3 (Wisniewski/Hudson) and a couple of stragglers in G5 (O'Dowd). The rest are late picks. This is the position where good scouting could find you a diamond in the rough and it probably makes sense to get one late.

RB...Like most drafts, RBs can be found throughout. There seems to be a cluster (Todman/Murray/Hunter/Thomas) in G4 and the scat backs (Devine/Locke) seems to be really sliding and could be values late. Patience is a virtue with this position.

CB...My favorite position in this draft class. Options and variety in every group. If you can't find value at another position, there will likely be a value at CB to be had.

S...Overall a bad group. There are some guys who were productive in college but have graded out poorly for one reason or another. If they fall enough, may get a value pick. Otherwise expectations should be low.

Not profiling QB, TE, WR, NT and ILB since the Pats are already well-invested at these positions. Now for the motive...

OLB is obviously a top positional need, but the real need is for speed, athleticism and violent power from the outside. Whether that is OLB, DE or a hybrid elephant role, really doesn't matter.

The OLine needs an infusion of youth and athleticism but this really isn't the draft class to do it. Biggest challenge for Belichick. Temptation will be there to overdraft guys. Just shallow enough that waiting could cause you to miss a run and lose out altogether.

RB is in good hands with BJGE and Woodhead, but need to add another option or two. RBs always go later than they should so it pays to wait for value. Wait on CB since someone will slip through the cracks. Be ready to get a FS type if a guy you like falls into your lap.

Put it together and you get something like (in this order but not necessarily at the current Pats draft positions):

DE Cam Jordan or JJ Watt
OT Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi
OLB Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed
RB Ryan Williams or DeMarco Murray
OG Clint Boling
S Deunta Williams
CB Richard Sherman
C Jake Kirkpatrick
DE Frank Kearse

[kurtinelson]

Originally Posted by the wrothbroughterer

I had completely overlooked him as a potential addition until I saw a write up on him from NEPatriotsDraft.com and decided to take a look at his combine stats and all I can say is, holy ****.

6'3", 285lbs
4.77 40 time (10yd split was unavailable)
27 presses at 225
4.56 20 yd SS
7.43 3 cone

And most importantly...

36.5" vertical

That kind of explosive power is rare. He tied for 5th at the combine among all other DL and LB prospects and had a solid 40 pounds on the other participants. I think he's got the perfect mold for that "Elephant" position and he has earned his way into my mock draft.

I like Bailey in this draft because with all of the DE/OLBs I think he's going to slide and be a good value pick for someone late in the 2nd or maybe even the 3rd. He may be available at 60. However, I assume he would play the same position as Cunningham. As Jays52 pointed out in another post referring to Kerrigan, we already have the stout strong side OLB in Cunningham, and we need the weakside guy who can give us something in space against the pass.

[Metaphors]

Originally Posted by kurtinelson

I like Bailey in this draft because with all of the DE/OLBs I think he's going to slide and be a good value pick for someone late in the 2nd or maybe even the 3rd. He may be available at 60. However, I assume he would play the same position as Cunningham. As Jays52 pointed out in another post referring to Kerrigan, we already have the stout strong side OLB in Cunningham, and we need the weakside guy who can give us something in space against the pass.

Couple of points here:

1) The Pats play left and right, not strong and weak. If the TE and/or FB shift sides, the Pats don't swap ends, OLBs and safeties. So either side needs to be strong or weak depending on the formation.

2) If you like up with Cunningham on one side and Ayers (for example) on the other, which side do you think the offense will attack in the running game? Which side will draw a RB screen or quick TE curl? The Pats do specialize and have a good number of players with niche skill sets, but those guys aren't your base starters (at least by design).

3) I'm not sure where the notion comes from that Pats OLBs do much more in pass coverage than just drop into a shallow zone. While that indeed is "playing in space", it is nowhere near as challenging as people make it out to be. It is more smarts and reaction speed than it is foot speed and loose hips. When Colvin first signed, he was lost in coverage. By the time injuries ruined him, he was very effective dropping back. He certainly didn't get quicker and looser in the hips (unless that surgery in 2003 was bionic).

Don't mean to pick on you since you are certainly not alone in your perspective. Just think conventional wisdom and group-think start to outpace reality sometimes.

[Box_O_Rocks]

Originally Posted by Metaphors

Just think conventional wisdom and group-think start to outpace reality sometimes.

The NE defense is old and aging gracelessly ...

[Ochmed Jones]

Originally Posted by jmt57

This time of year has one mock draft published after another. Fans check them out to see who was selected by their favorite team, and then discuss the merits of this player versus that player, this mock draft versus that mock draft, and this draft expert versus that draft expert.

Mike Dussault over at Pats Propaganda put something together that perhaps makes a lot more sense for fans of one team - in our case the Patriots - than yet another mock draft. What he has done is put together a mock 2011 New England Patriots Draft Big Board. Here is his explanation of this list:





What I really like about this listing is not necessarily the top five or top ten, but those ranked after that. The listing gives a good idea of who the Pats may target, and about at what spots in the draft. The rankings from #9 to #20, or #20 to #40 for example are interesting to dissect.

I haven't gone through it thoroughly enough to figure out what I agree or disagree with yet, but I thought it was an interesting way of looking at prospects for the Pats, rather than a mock draft or an all-32 team big board.

Interesting concept. I really like Boling in our offense and have no problem with how high he is rated. However I would like to see Wilkerson come up a good bit.

[MaineMan]

Originally Posted by Metaphors

Right on. Was going to post almost the exact same thing. That is the method. Now for the opportunity...

DE...Can find a candidate in each group (G1-Dareus/Watt/Jordan, G2-Wilkerson/Heyward, G3-Ballard, G4-Jenkins) except there seems to be a hole in G5. G6 has some sleeper candidates in Corbin Bryant and Frank Kearse.

OLB...Loads of candidates in every group. The only weak spot seems to be G4 (Acho likely landing in that group).

OG...Nothing in G1 and limited candidates elsewhere, but they are spread out among the other groups (G2-Pouncey, G3-Watkins, G4-Ijalana, G5-Boling, G6-Moffitt). Given lack of depth, players could be overdrafted so waiting too long is probably not advised.

OT...Most interesting position since the candidates seem very clustered. A handful near the top (G1 and G2) and a second cluster much later (G5). Get one early or pick your spots in the middle rounds. Don't expect much late.

C...A pretty weak class with a couple of guys in G3 (Wisniewski/Hudson) and a couple of stragglers in G5 (O'Dowd). The rest are late picks. This is the position where good scouting could find you a diamond in the rough and it probably makes sense to get one late.

RB...Like most drafts, RBs can be found throughout. There seems to be a cluster (Todman/Murray/Hunter/Thomas) in G4 and the scat backs (Devine/Locke) seems to be really sliding and could be values late. Patience is a virtue with this position.

CB...My favorite position in this draft class. Options and variety in every group. If you can't find value at another position, there will likely be a value at CB to be had.

S...Overall a bad group. There are some guys who were productive in college but have graded out poorly for one reason or another. If they fall enough, may get a value pick. Otherwise expectations should be low.

Not profiling QB, TE, WR, NT and ILB since the Pats are already well-invested at these positions. Now for the motive...

OLB is obviously a top positional need, but the real need is for speed, athleticism and violent power from the outside. Whether that is OLB, DE or a hybrid elephant role, really doesn't matter.

The OLine needs an infusion of youth and athleticism but this really isn't the draft class to do it. Biggest challenge for Belichick. Temptation will be there to overdraft guys. Just shallow enough that waiting could cause you to miss a run and lose out altogether.

RB is in good hands with BJGE and Woodhead, but need to add another option or two. RBs always go later than they should so it pays to wait for value. Wait on CB since someone will slip through the cracks. Be ready to get a FS type if a guy you like falls into your lap.

Put it together and you get something like (in this order but not necessarily at the current Pats draft positions):

DE Cam Jordan or JJ Watt
OT Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi
OLB Jabaal Sheard or Brooks Reed
RB Ryan Williams or DeMarco Murray
OG Clint Boling
S Deunta Williams
CB Richard Sherman
C Jake Kirkpatrick
DE Frank Kearse

This is pretty much the way I organize this stuff as well - on a spreadsheet grid with pick ranges in the left column and positions in the header row. Then I plug prospects into the grid squares where I think they'd be a good value for the Pats, roughly informed by where they're projected to go by the majority of analysts - the legit ones (IOW, not Kiper).

[TriplecHamp]

Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks

The NE defense is old and aging gracelessly ...

[MaineMan]

Originally Posted by Box_O_Rocks

The NE defense is old and aging gracelessly ...

Dude! My eyes didn't quit throbbing for about five minutes and I have this sudden urge to go find some "patchouli".

[dryheat44]

Originally Posted by mgteich

It seems that we usually have the morla equivalent of a patsfans Big Board. We usually do it parts. We usually start with a top set of players "beyond reach" or rather reachable only by trade. We than have board for individual picks or groups of picks.

Indeed. Here's one from last year:

The Long-Awaited U-H Horizontal Value Board

Hope I can do one this year, but due to work/travel I'm so far behind on scouting right now.

[townes]

I don't see the rankings the same but agree that this is the way to look at the draft.