Seneschal2

Came across the following tidbit and thought having a floating thread on the topic may assist us in preparing for Belichick the maneuverer.

Charley Walters: Look for Vikings to trade their first-round pick in April's NFL draft - TwinCities.com

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Any thoughts on this scenario? And please post any other linked possibilities you may find.

__________________
"What we want to try to do is maximize each spot on the roster; we want to be stronger at No. 1 than the opponent, stronger at No. 25 than they are, and stronger at No. 53 than they are, we're always looking to upgrade the talent level on the team, and play together to be functional."
- Bill Belichick -

MaineMan

WRT the Vikes moving down, the Pats(17) and SD(18) both have two 2nds and two 3rds. The Eagles(23) have 9 picks overall, including two 4ths and two 5ths. JAX (16) has an extra 4th. [For the Eagles and JAX, I'm just saying that having the extra mid-round picks might make them more inclined to give up a 3rd.]

But that's just from an "ammo" perspective. It's hard to gauge the "desperation" factor without knowing who's still on the board at that point AND likely to be gone before a given team's current pick slot. And then there's the "ownership/FO stupidity" factor.

WRT the Pats trading down, it's a similar set of constraints. For instance, trading down out of #17 (IF that seems desirable when the time comes) might require a couple "incremental" trades like last season. E.g., first trading down to #20 with the Bucs (picking up the #115 and #132), and then trading down with the Ravens (#26) and picking up their #90 and #212.

OR, it might involve some sort of "double move" with, say,, the #17 and #33 for a lower 1st a lower 2nd, a couple extra 2010 picks and a 2012 pick.

The Huddle Report has a chart of the complete current draft order that's fairly easy to copy into a spreadsheet and then re-sort by team to get an easy reference to what teams have what trade ammo.

Metaphors

Don't have a link since this is just my gut feeling (so take it for what it is worth)...

FACT: The Texans have #11, #42 and #73
FACT: They are transitioning to the 3-4
OPINION: They have dire needs at NT, rush LB, CB and S
OPINION: The talent in this draft class falls off a cliff in the 70-80 range
SPECULATION: Amukamara will be gone by #11

If Amukamara is still on the board at #11, the Texans stick and take him. If he is gone, the Texans are faced with taking an OLB or trading down (no NT, CB, S value left at #11). Having 4 desperate needs on defense if they want to overtake the Colts and only 3 picks to do it in a top-heavy draft, I get the sense the Texans would consider a moderate trade-down to get another pick in the first 2 rounds.

Pats #17 + #60 = 1250 points
Texans #11 = 1250 points

If the top 10 shakes out with no QBs or OTs breaking up the defensive run, the Pats may be willing to part with #60 to ensure they get one of Cam Jordan, Aldon Smith, JJ Watt before the well runs dry at the top. If Quinn or Dareus slips out of the top 10, this trade can't be done fast enough.

Seneschal2

Two excellent posts! Keep 'em coming...

__________________
"What we want to try to do is maximize each spot on the roster; we want to be stronger at No. 1 than the opponent, stronger at No. 25 than they are, and stronger at No. 53 than they are, we're always looking to upgrade the talent level on the team, and play together to be functional."
- Bill Belichick -

ctpatsfan77

There'll be more than a couple of teams looking to trade up, I think, if Buffalo doesn't take a QB at 3 (seeing as the Pats have 33 and BUF has 34).

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"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots

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Ochmed Jones

I have a gut feeling that San Diego is a team that thinks they are a player or two away on defense from being back to an elite team in the AFC. I think will move up to go get a player they think can help them the most. And that player is probably an elite pass rusher, or maybe someone on the D Line.

They have a lot to gain from hitting it big and could try to jump up to ensure that they do hit it big.

mgteich

The patriots have 17, 28, 33, 60, 74 and 92. We'd like 3-5 studs. The open question iw whether there are place where there are great dropoffs in talent.

The first dropoff is usually around 12. The second can be anywhere. Someone on this thread suggested 70-80 in this draft.

Several of us have suggest trading of us have suggested trading 74 and 92 for a pick around 55 to have a much better shot at a top player with 5 picks in the first two rounds.
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The patriots have lots of ammo to trade up with to get a stud in the first if Belichick chooses. Here are some of the combinations.

#4 requires 17 + 28 + 74
#5 requires 17 + 28 + 92
#6 requires 17 + 28
#7 requires 17 + 33
#8 requires 17 + 60 + 74
#9 requires 28 + 33 + 92
#10 requires 17 + 74 + 92
#11 requires 28 + 33 or 17 + 60
#12 requires 28 + 74 + 92
#13 requires 17 + 74
#14 requires 17 + 92
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With regard to partners, Houston, Detroit and Minny all would be likely to be listening at 11, 12 and 13.

We've had a thread on who we would be willing to trade 17 and 74 for, presumably to be drafted at 12 or 13.

mgteich

1) 28 + 33 will also likely get us to 11. some might prefer us to have 11, 17 and 60 instead of 11, 28 and 33.

2) The question is indeed about the two cliffs (major drops in talent). One is usually around 10-15. The second is extremely variable. If the second is indeed between 70 and 80, the we might be willing to package 74 AND 92 to add to 17 instead of the more valuable 60. This should bring us to about 10 or 11.

This would give us 10/11, 28, 33 and 60.

Depending on player and trade partner. I think I like trading for for #12 best using 74, 92 and 28. We would then have 12, 17, 33 and 60.


[QUOTE=Metaphors;2491123].

OPINION: The talent in this draft class falls off a cliff in the 70-80 range

Off The Grid

I have to ask...

When I see this talk ~ it's prevalent ~ of packaging this and that to accumulate "Marquee" Picks...I can't help but think that the poster simply hasn't taken a long, carefull look at the tremendous Values out there Beyond the Pale.

I promise you: Coach Bill The Mad is VERY aware of them:

2009

#83 ~ WR Brandon Tate
#97 ~ MF Tyrone McKenzie
#207 ~ DL Myron Pryor
#232 ~ WR Julian Edelman

2010

#90 ~ WR Taylor Price
#112 ~ WE Aaron Hernandez
#150 ~ XP Zoltan Mesko
#205 ~ OC Ted Larson
#247 ~ DE Brandon Deaderick
#248 ~ DE Kade Weston

...And there were several other DAMNED good picks that simply haven't panned out.

***

THIS year, as ALL years, offers TREMENDOUS Opportunity to improve our Depth of Talent in the later rounds, and in Round 8.

I would think it would be obvious, considering how many individuals contributed to our success, this last year, that one of Coach Bill The Mad's great Advantages is PRECISELY his ability to forge a 53 Man Roster that is better, from Stem to Stern, than all others, where players WAY down the food chain contribute...and contribute significantly.

As such, it seems to me that it BEHOOVES us to SUPPORT his efforts to accumulate those Late Rounders.

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Love HURTS!!

Deus Irae

2.) Some drafts offer no top end talent. Some drafts suck at the bottom. Some drafts just suck. Go take a look at 2007, and I think you'll see what I'm getting at, here.

2.) Most of the "Depth of talent" players are just replacing other "Depth of talent" players, effectively giving little or no gain.

3.) I'm not sure how you're viewing a punter taken in the 5th round as a tremendous value. No punter has been taken in any round higher than the 5th since 2007. It's a position that's historically drafted low.

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"The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
- Marcus Aurelius