mgteich

Where will the breaks be this year?

BLUE CHIPPERS
The break is usually in the 9-14 range, always with occasional one or two players rated as studs falling through. We could always wait and be lucky at 17 as we were with Wilfork.

RED CHIPPERS
Often it is said that 15-35 or 15 -50 or 15-65 give you almost the same quality player. Where is the break this year. Do you believe that pick 60 is close to 30 or 15?

IHMO, there are many of the same players being talked about at 17, 28 and 33. There are few who are said to "definitely" be there at 17 and will be very "unlikely to be there at 28 or even 33.

BOTTOM LINE
This type of situation often results in Belichick moving down a bit from 17 or 28, unless a stud falls through that Belichick judges womeone else will pick at 18-27. Or unless, Belichick has a couple of red chippers that he feels will be gone a few picks later.

WHAT SAY YOU ALL
Would you trade down to 27 or 29 to someone who gave you their 2nd at 59 or 71 (the draft value is about right)? That would give 2 in a row in the 1st and 2nd in addition to pick 33.

We would have 5 picks in the top 61.

ALTERNATIVELY OR IN ADDITION
If you don't like the end of the second, we could trade two seconds or a second and a third to move up.

THE KEY ISSUE
is where will the top quality end. I understand that even after this "break" there will be opportunities for a mid-round player anf diamond in the rough late.

kurtinelson

Here's my humble attempt:

Blue Chippers 6:

Da Quan Bowers
Patrick Peterson
Nick Fairley
Marcel Dareus
AJ Green
Cam Newton

Almost Blue Chippers 5:
Robert Quinn
Von Miller
Cameron Jordan
Blane Gabbert
Prince Amukamara

I'd say the red chippers go about half way through round 2 about 11-45.

As far as trading down from 17, if Cam Jordan (very likely) and Aldon Smith (possibly) are off the board, I would be all for a trade down.

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bucky

Maybe it depends on what you define as a blue chipper. But I think it's extremely rare to find 8 or 9 of them. In 2010, I would say there were 4 - Bradford, Suh, McCoy and Berry. In 2009, were there any? Are Stafford, Tyson Jackson, or Jason Smith blue chippers? What about 2008? You could say there was a top 7, but were Gholston and Sedrick Ellis really blue chippers?

That said, I think the list this year is very short - Peterson, AJ Green, Fairley and maybe Bowers.

Sciz

2009 was a really bad year at the top of the draft. I think there were 6 in 2008, hence Bill trading back from #7.

I've got 4 for this year right now: Green, Peterson, Fairley, Bowers. I suppose Newton is the closest to being a fifth, but I pretty much ignore all high-round QB prospects right now.

mgteich

I like your humble attempt. It is what I had in mind. A dozen that are likely to be out of reach seems a good place for us to start, given that we pick 17th.

I would add Julio Jones to your "almost blue-chippers", given us an even dozen of "blue chippers" or almost blue chippers".

At this point, it seems that all these are out of reach without us using our #60 to move up to 11 or 12. Of course, we have the ammunition to move even higher if we wish.

dryheat44

It seems to me that there are very few "blue chippers" in this draft (12 by my count), and fewer still that would be a good fit in New England (Somewhere between 4-8). The only one who is somewhat likely to be there at #17 would be Ingram. And I don't feel comfortable taking a running back that high.

So, that being said, unless BB makes an uncharacteristically strong move up to get in position for a guy like Dareus, I would accept that proposed trade in half a heartbeat.

Honestly, when mocking this draft, I'm hard-pressed to find a guy who really makes sense at #17. I'd probably try to package it in a trade for an established veteran (WR isn't a huge priority for the team, but Larry Fitzgerald makes too much sense not to try to bring him in). Barring that, I'd flip it to a team for a top 35 pick and a projected top 35 pick next year.

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

CTHuskies

I agree with a number of your selections, here is another attempt:

Blue Chippers: 8
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
Da'Quan Bowers
A.J. Green
Robert Quinn
Marcel Dareus
Von Miller
Cameron Jordan

Almost Blue Chippers: 4
Aldon Smith
J.J. Watt
Prince Amukamara
Blaine Gabbert

Red Chippers: 34 (in no particular order)
Muhammad Wilkerson
Cam Newton
Corey Liuget
Adrian Clayborn
Julio Jones
Jimmy Smith
Titus Young
Mikel LeShoure
Mark Ingram
Brandon Harris
Nate Solder
Jon Baldwin
Anthony Castonzo
Akeem Ayers
Tyron Smith
Justin Houston
Martez Wilson
Rahim Moore
Torrey Smith
Gabe Carimi
Ryan Kerrigan
Mike Pouncey
Derek Sherrod
Jake Locker
Danny Watkins
Ryan Mallett
Stephen Paea
Cameron Heyward
Aaron Williams
Phil Taylor
Kyle Rudolph
Stefan Wisniewski
Ryan Williams
Ben Ijalana

As far as trading down from 17, ifI would be all for a trading more than once down. If Locker drops out of first round, it would make #33 very valuable.

mgteich

A fine analysis a usual

BTW, I don't find the number of blue chippers esepcially low. If I add Ingram, who I have a bit on the edge, I would have 13.

kurtinelson

Agreed. That was a clerical error on my part.

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kurtinelson

There is plenty of room on the Aldon Smith Bandwagon.

__________________
"Tonight a dynasty is born" - Ricky Proehl before the start of Super Bowl XXXVI


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