GoWesleyan

This year's positional rankings seem much more variable than in years past, i.e. the standard deviation on players and draft position is high.

One prospect whose value seems to be all over the place is Marshwn Lynch. I see him rated as 11-13 talent, but falling all the way down to low 20s in mocks. Ted Ginn also seems to be all over the place. If the team draft boards are as varied as the mock drafts it could be a wild Saturday.

I'm seeing all kinds of variation on the positions that I presume Pat's would be thinking about in round one LBs and DBs.

If (big if) the Pat's also see lots of plusses and minuses to the prospects for these positions, the groups in Rook's value grouping theory strategy would be big and thattherefore we would be better trading out of 1st at both picks, if possible.

Scenarios:

24 (and 171 or a 6th if necessary) traded for 2008 1st and high second this year. Pick up Harris or Puluszney (or Woodley or Timmons or Spencer or Bradley)

28 (and something?) for 1st next year and mid-second. Pick up Gattis, Josh Wilson (or another somewhat lesser know of about 10 other DBs that seem to be in this range - sort of an Ellis Hobbs type of pick)

What would we be able to pick up for 2008 by moving from 24 to 35 and from 28 to 45-50? What would we have to throw in to get 2008 1sts?

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Felger: Just looking at it on paper...

BB: What difference does it make? What is paper? You're going to put my paper out there against Buffalo's paper?

PATSNUTme

There are 4 teams that have 2 2nd round picks. Atalnta, Tampa, Jest, and Fins.

I would took to either Alt or TB to trade down #28. We won't be able to get a 2008 first plus 2007 second but we may be able to pick up a 2008 third.

Ochmed Jones

Or how about a different scenario, let's say BB keeps #24 and #28 and takes 2 players that YOU think are perfect for the Pats and these players plug 2 holes perfectly.

Would anybody here be willing at that point to trade #91 away for a second rounder in 2008?

Clonamery

Yes, absolutely.

__________________
Paul Brown: A winner never whines.

dryheat44

I would have to see who is on the board first. We could very well end up with 3 players who are perfect fits.

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

Ochmed Jones

That surprises me Heat. If we were Oakland or Detriot and had a ton of holes, then I could see keeping the pick and trying to fill those holes immediately.
However we are in a much more enviable positions, after decades of being the Oakland and Detriot's of the football world.

We all know that anybody available in the 3rd round is going to have a wart or two.
You would gamble on finding a guy with a wart that fits perfectly into our system over a chance to take a second in 2008?

GoWesleyan

I don't think like that. At least not this year. There are a couple of guys - like Thomas and Gattis- that I've developed some affinity for because reading some draft articles I infer that they might be had at good value for us, but I also realized that I don't know nearly enough to be very confident about those sorts of "favorites". So the fact that BB/SP happen to pick my "favorite" picks doesn't add much value to the picks for me and doesn't make a difference in the calculations of this year's 3rd vs next year's 2nd.

Generally speaking, I always like upgrading a round by deferring the pick a year, e.g. 3rd for 2nd... That's great ROI in my opinion, and I'd love to do it with all of our tradeable 2nd day picks because we don't have enough roster spots anyhow.

__________________
Felger: Just looking at it on paper...

BB: What difference does it make? What is paper? You're going to put my paper out there against Buffalo's paper?

The Gr8est

The closer draft day gets and the more I "learn" about these prospects, the less impressed I am with this draft. I see very few "must haves" in this draft, and I am all in favor of trading down. There are so many similarly rated prospects that extra picks this year or next look particularly enticing.

I'm so glad we have BB and SP running our draft, this is going to be a year where the best talent evaluators will be worth their weight in gold. This draft has the potential to be a real disaster for the less competent front offices.

Regardless of our needs, I'm coming around to the opinion that others have expressed of just making sure we get guys who can play...even if it's a WR or OL. A bust at CB, S or LB doesn't help us at all.

dryheat44

I'll gladly take a chance on a guy like Soliai, Bradley, Piscatelli, Bazuin, etc. I mean, it's a no-lose situation, but these guys could definitely fill holes on the bottom of the roster for us, and it will get them in the system one year earlier than we might need them if guys like Bruschi or Harrison decide to retire after the '07 Super Bowl victory.

__________________
When it's third and 10, you can have the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers every time. -- R.I.P. Max McGee

ctpatsfan77

Those warts are perceived warts, not necessarily actual ones.

For example, do you really think that Dave Thomas deserved to wait until the end of the 3rd round last year? [According to Football Outsiders, Thomas had the best outcome-per-catch of *any* TE in the NFL last year.]

I trust the FO and the scouts (well, maybe not the scout that found Bethel Johnson ). If they think Player X in the third this year is better than a second next year, I'm going to trust 'em.

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"Momentum was quickly snatched away by New England, who once again proved that any Patriot, at any moment, can make a play." —Inside the NFL, Packers v. Patriots

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