Patriot Missile

It's not a matter of faith,it's a matter of trust. If we go back over NE's 1st round track record, you will find Pioli and BB are pretty accurate at getting players that produce.

To my knowledge the Pat's haven't drafted a CB in the first round since the Bioli regime has been around. It is completely unfair to base possible failure of picking a CB in the 1st rd due to failures from 3rd to 6th round picks in previous years.

Some may consider someone like Dexter Reid a bust but in reality he contributed to a NFL franchise. Of course not like Harrison or Milloy,Law etc but enough to put his name out there that he is par to somewhat ok sub. Many 3rd, 4th, 5th round players never see the field in their entire careers for other teams. I would venture to say over the last 5yrs more than 1/2 of the cbs drafted regardless of round contributed to winning games for this team in some type of way whether it be nickel,dime or special teams etc.

I trust in the front office to choose us a capable CB to compliment this team if they choose to go that route in the first round this draft. You can bank on it.

Patriot Missile

Need to get my post number to 667 in a hurry. Bad karma and all.

rookBoston

To start, I disagree with the criticisms of the Harris and Myers picks as duds. Those guys each gave us a number of years of successful service in SB years-- very analogous to Tully Banta-Cain type of service, who was also a late round pick. I dont think anyone considers TBC as a wasted pick.

I also disagree, strongly, that the Pats are 90% likely to draft a DB in the first round. I think the likelihood is closer to 30%, and that's including both picks.

I was convinced that 2006 was the year of the LB, after losing McGinest. And 2005 was the year of the CB, after losing Ty. Not so.

Partly, I think the general public doesn't think as highly of our starting secondary as the staff does. Hobbs, Sanders, Wilson and Samuel are a young nucleus which will be in place in 2007. Add Harrison, Gay, Scott, Hawkins... and it's a very deep and servicable group. Just because they aren't household names doesn't mean they aren't players. As recently as last offseason, posters on this board were looking to bring Ty Law back so Asante could go back to his "natural position" as the nickleback. Now, suddenly, he's one of the elite CBs in the NFL, and someone we cant do without.

Personally, I think a fair probablistic breakdown for likelihood is something more like:

RB - 10%
TE - 10%
WR - 5%
OL - 5%
DL - 10%
LB - 30%
DB - 30%
QB, K, P - <1%

Offense is a real possibility. Losing Graham leaves a spot, KBrady notwithstanding. Losing Dillon leaves a need, Moris notwithstanding. None of the WR signings other than Welker are truly long term solutions. If good value at any of those positions presents itself (e.g Lynch, Meachum), BB wont hesitate to pull the trigger. The roster still doesn't have solid depth at NT. And the idea of losing Warren to UFA in a few years has to be daunting-- someone like Okoye might seem like a worthy investment.

BB/SP will not force themselves to pick a CB or pick a S in the first round. I think a class headlined by...

24 - RB Lynch, WR Rice, WR Meachem, OLB Moss, OLB Spencer
28 - TE Olsen, LB Posluszny, RB Leonard, OT Staley, LB Beason

... should not be all that surprising.

__________________
"We want to build a big, strong, tough, smart, fast, disciplined football team that will consistently compete for a championship."
-- Scott Pioli, from the Patriots scouting manual

Fencer

rookBoston,

For at least two reasons, you IMO should rethink that post.

First, your probabilities should add up closer to 200% than to 100%.

Second, you comment on the WRs not being long-term solutions while ignoring how many of the DBs will be UFAs in the near future.

biffman

But Katzenmoyer was not a bad pick. Him being a "bust" should not reflect poorly on Grier. The best players in the world can and do get hurt; sometimes permanently. That doesn't mean they were bad picks at the time. That's all I'm saying in Scott's case. I trust BB and Pioli's ability to pick good players, not the ability to see into the future and know that those players won't get hurt.

__________________
On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson . . they took Richard Seymour, who is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon. - Ron Borges, MSNBC after 2001 Draft

AzPatsFan

I trust BB and SP to pick players than ANYBODY on the is Board.

Period.

I also find it somewhat offensive and definitely Presumptuous, for any one here to question that based on past record. OTOH, There are plenty of posters here who could out do Bobby Grier though.