The unbalanced nature of the two conferences could create a draft bonanza for the Pats provided Seattle loses its last two games. The pick is currently sitting at #20. Assuming Seattle loses to SD, the pick could rise as high as #16, I believe, despite an increase in Seattle's opponents' winning % due to SD's stellar record. Then, if TB could possibly beat Seattle in TB with Tim Rattay at the helm in Week 17, the pick could potentially rise as high as #12. Dare to dream!

It's fairly unrealistic, though possible, that SF will win out with Seattle losing out to hand SF the division. However if Seattle loses out and wins the division at 8-8 there are several AFC teams that could not make the playoffs but finish at 9-7, thus moving the pick into the #18-#20 range.

If not, #21 is all but assured (assuming SD beats Seattle) as there won't be any other playoff teams with a worse record and Seattle losing the SoS tiebreaker to pretty much everyone.

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BF,
I believe first rd draft order is based purely on record and opposition winning % until reaching the SB participants. Therefore, Seattle making the playoffs at 8-8 does not put them behind 9-7 AFC teams who do not make the playoffs. That is why I believe the situation will benefit the Pats.

Could TB possibly win?? Even at 20..the pick is GREAT!!

A pick around 20 is great!

I seen 2 games they won with a FG in the last few seconds or we would be talking about a top 10 pick..

I thought the playoff team with the worse record picks at 21. I think you are correct if this article is right. See note at end of article.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW...erFormula.html

This link says head to head has no bearing.

http://nfl.com/draft/story/9137410?TTFUID=CSNFL4

It just so happened last year that the Pats had the "worst" record of any team that made the playoffs, and that no team with a better record missed the playoffs. I think, in theory, a playoff team could be assigned a draft pick as high as #4. [As David Fleming put it on ESPN.com:

And head-to-head has no bearing on draft picks.

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Where does it stand now? after week 15? Thanks,

Right now, with one week to go, it stands at #22.

Here are the week 17 games; the numbers after each team indicate Ws (and italicized games will have little impact):

WAS 5-NYG 7
CHI 13-GB 7
CIN 8-PIT 7
TB 4-SEA 8
KC 8-JAC 8
IND 11-MIA 6
DAL 9-DET 2
PHI 9-ATL 7
NYJ 9-OAK 2
BAL 12-BUF 7
NO 10-CAR 7
HOU 5-CLE 4
TEN 8-NE 11
MIN 6-STL 7
DEN 9-SF 6
SD 13-ARI 5

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Interestingly enough, I think Seattle is pretty much locked in to the #4 seed so they have no motivation to win and can rest players.

We only get Seattle's #1 choice they get to keep the rest, so Seattle's losing next week is, strangely enough, to both team's advantage.