2006 Value Groupings - Page 2 - New England Patriots Forums

Rene Vallieres · #11 04-21-2006, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rookBoston

Wanted to solicit the board for their value groupings.

To kick things off, I'll post mine. I think I'm already on record with my belief that this is the year of the Linebacker for the Pats, and if we take a Receiver in the first, barring a trade down, I'll absolutely bust a gut.

Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.

Group 1 - unique
(RB Reggie Bush, DE Mario Williams)

Group 2 - rookie starters for the Pats
(LB AJ Hawk, NT Haloti Ngata, SS Michael Huff, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter)

Group 3 - elite upside
(LB Manny Lawson, FS Donte Whitner, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, LB Kamerion Wimbley, CB Richard Marshall)

Group 4 - sophmore starters
(RB Deangelo Williams, RB Lawrence Moroney, CB Jimmy Williams, RB Joseph Addai, LB Thomas Howard)

Group 5 - key contributors
(WR Sinorice Moss, DE Tamba Hali, LB Mark Anderson, LB Darryl Tapp, DL Jonathan Lewis, DE John McCargo, LB Roger McIntosh, CB Ashton Youboti)

Note, esp. the players I've left off. I dont want Jackson on the team. I dont want Justice or even D'Brick. I had Vernon Davis in Group 2, but I took him off because I dont like what the scouts have to say about his pass blocking. Jimmy Williams is on the board, but I'm thinking of taking him off. Tye Hill didn't make the cut.

And, yes, I've rated Carpenter ahead of Lawson, and Greenway on par with Hawk, and Marshall ahead of Deangelo... that's just my personal take on value to the team. That's what value groupings are all about.

Basically, a very good list. However, I continue to caution about Roger MacIntosh. I think he rates mid-late 4th round by a team who is looking for a spot back-up and great special teams player. Roger was hurt a good deal of his career at the U. He's had shoulder surgery, and couldn't beat out Jon Beason or Leon Williams the last half of the 2005 season. But, he did play a lot. (Beason plays mostly inside, but can also play outside.) They tried Roger inside a couple of games, but he had trouble getting in on tackles and is not the best cover guy. He's a great kid and I think he has a future in the NFL, but other than special teams, he is a project. He is listed on some mock draft boards as a late 2nd-3rd rd pick, which I don't understand. Being an ACC guy, I've seen and like Oliver Hoyte as a better value pick by the Pats, despite his slow 40 time. Roger is about .15 seconds faster. He (Hoyte) should be available well after the 3rd round and may even fall into the 6th.

***mgteich*** · #12 04-21-2006, 11:40 AM

If the first round is for super-studs, then you shouldn't want us drafting in the first round. We have almost no chance to get any of the 8-12 superstuds in this draft (rook's Group one and two).

I just don't understand your position. I would expect to get a super-stud if I were drafting in the top 10. If I draft later, why should I give up on the first round. 10-25 yields players that we should want.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brady'sButtBoy

What's the obsession with Carpenter? He's a solid player that surely benefitted from having a ton of talent around him, starting with AJ Hawk. I only saw him play three times but I do remember him making some 'plays' in two of the games so I'm not saying he was purely a product of the OHSU defensive system.

Hawk has the makings of a star, while Carpenter will likely be a starter but not any kind of dominator. The first round is all about getting the super-studs, players with the grades, talent, and attitude that clearly set them apart from the rest of the group. If you look at Carpenter this way, he just doesn't measure up.

The argument could easily be made that there will not be ANY player at 21 who fits my description of what the first round is all about. In fact, that is what I expect and is why I feel trading down 5-8 spots in exchange for a future second rounder would be a very shrewd move since we'd still get a player of a virtually identical grade at the lower spot while positioning ourselves very well for the future - again.

With the Giants, Bears, Panthers at 25, 26, 27, we have three potential trades all out of our conference making a swap easier for both teams. If you buy the hype that the G-Men want a LB (Carpenter?) and the Carolina wants a certain RB and that the Bears want to enhance their offense, well, you can come up with a number of trade scenarios. All this would have been especially true if Lendale "White Castle," hadn't decided to eat half of the state of California for Christmas dinner and maybe fall out of the first round.

***patchick*** · #13 04-21-2006, 11:49 AM

Thanks Rook! I might quibble with the players but I love the structure--great food for thought. It's an intriguing exercise to try to group by value rather than position, especially in round 1-2.

As the draft goes on, can I presume that position starts to carry more weight? E.g., if you take Kam Wimbley in the 1st, Mark Anderson may fall out of the next tier value group. Or if your first two picks are Richard Marshall and Joseph Addai, you might shift to an all-LB group to make sure you cash in there while there's still top talent at the position.

bakes781 · #14 04-21-2006, 12:18 PM

1st Round

DeAngelo Williams, RB
Manny Lawson, LB
Tye Hill, CB

2nd Round

Richard Marshall, CB
Maurice Stovall, WR
D'Qwell Jackson, LB

3rd Round

Mike Hass, WR
Cedric Griffin, CB
Ryan O'Callaghan, OT

4th Round

Chris Gocong, DE
PJ Daniels, RB
Skyler Green, WR

Option 1: DeAngelo Williams, Richard Marshall, Mike Hass & Chris Gocong
Option 2: Manny Lawson, Maurice Stovall, Cedric Griffin & PJ Daniels
Option 3: Tye Hill, D'Qwell Jackson, Ryan O'Callaghan & Skyler Green

Boston Tim · #15 04-21-2006, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgteich

I just don't understand your position. I would expect to get a super-stud if I were drafting in the top 10. If I draft later, why should I give up on the first round. 10-25 yields players that we should want.

He isn't saying to give up on the first round. He is saying that if you can't get into the Top 10 (to draft a "super stud,") then you might as well trade down into the Bottom 10ish. I think he is saying to trade down to position 25-32 because you can pick up an additional day one pick in 2007 as well as a player that is equally as good as what you could have gotten at #21. At least, that is what I think he is saying.

***mgteich*** · #16 04-21-2006, 02:11 PM

If you believe that you would get an equal quality at 31 as 21 (and no other team knows this secret), then indeed you should trade down. Seriously, if we have several that we have equal on our board, then we will trade down, if we can find a partner, presumably someone who has a different view, and really wants one of the players available.

However, this is a playoff team, not a rebuilding team. We need a few good picks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boston Tim

He isn't saying to give up on the first round. He is saying that if you can't get into the Top 10 (to draft a "super stud,") then you might as well trade down into the Bottom 10ish. I think he is saying to trade down to position 25-32 because you can pick up an additional day one pick in 2007 as well as a player that is equally as good as what you could have gotten at #21. At least, that is what I think he is saying.

***mgteich*** · #17 04-21-2006, 02:17 PM

I believe that your board would make the first round very easy indeed.
1) See how far Greenway ad Carpenter slip, and choose to move up or not.
2) If not, take a Whitner or Marshall at 21; at least one WILL be there

Quote:

Originally Posted by rookBoston

Wanted to solicit the board for their value groupings.

To kick things off, I'll post mine. I think I'm already on record with my belief that this is the year of the Linebacker for the Pats, and if we take a Receiver in the first, barring a trade down, I'll absolutely bust a gut.

Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.

Group 1 - unique
(RB Reggie Bush, DE Mario Williams)

Group 2 - rookie starters for the Pats
(LB AJ Hawk, NT Haloti Ngata, SS Michael Huff, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter)

Group 3 - elite upside
(LB Manny Lawson, FS Donte Whitner, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, LB Kamerion Wimbley, CB Richard Marshall)

Group 4 - sophmore starters
(RB Deangelo Williams, RB Lawrence Moroney, CB Jimmy Williams, RB Joseph Addai, LB Thomas Howard)

Group 5 - key contributors
(WR Sinorice Moss, DE Tamba Hali, LB Mark Anderson, LB Darryl Tapp, DL Jonathan Lewis, DE John McCargo, LB Roger McIntosh, CB Ashton Youboti)

Note, esp. the players I've left off. I dont want Jackson on the team. I dont want Justice or even D'Brick. I had Vernon Davis in Group 2, but I took him off because I dont like what the scouts have to say about his pass blocking. Jimmy Williams is on the board, but I'm thinking of taking him off. Tye Hill didn't make the cut.

And, yes, I've rated Carpenter ahead of Lawson, and Greenway on par with Hawk, and Marshall ahead of Deangelo... that's just my personal take on value to the team. That's what value groupings are all about.

Mark Morse · #18 04-21-2006, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rookBoston

Wanted to solicit the board for their value groupings.

To kick things off, I'll post mine. I think I'm already on record with my belief that this is the year of the Linebacker for the Pats, and if we take a Receiver in the first, barring a trade down, I'll absolutely bust a gut.

Keys:
Keep a short board. Only the players that you really want. Remember, you're only going to get ONE of these players, barring a miracle, so make sure every single name that you list is someone you're willing to stake your career on. And remember, you should be perfectly ambivalent over which player you get our of any given group-- they should all value out exactly equal in your mind.

Group 1 - unique
(RB Reggie Bush, DE Mario Williams)

Group 2 - rookie starters for the Pats
(LB AJ Hawk, NT Haloti Ngata, SS Michael Huff, LB Chad Greenway, LB Bobby Carpenter)

Group 3 - elite upside
(LB Manny Lawson, FS Donte Whitner, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, LB Kamerion Wimbley, CB Richard Marshall)

Group 4 - sophmore starters
(RB Deangelo Williams, RB Lawrence Moroney, CB Jimmy Williams, RB Joseph Addai, LB Thomas Howard)

Group 5 - key contributors
(WR Sinorice Moss, DE Tamba Hali, LB Mark Anderson, LB Darryl Tapp, DL Jonathan Lewis, DE John McCargo, LB Roger McIntosh, CB Ashton Youboti)

Note, esp. the players I've left off. I dont want Jackson on the team. I dont want Justice or even D'Brick. I had Vernon Davis in Group 2, but I took him off because I dont like what the scouts have to say about his pass blocking. Jimmy Williams is on the board, but I'm thinking of taking him off. Tye Hill didn't make the cut.

And, yes, I've rated Carpenter ahead of Lawson, and Greenway on par with Hawk, and Marshall ahead of Deangelo... that's just my personal take on value to the team. That's what value groupings are all about.

I agree with your principle of value grouping. However my groupings are a little different this year. I have taken 140 players I think are on the Patriots draft board and allocated them to rounds of the darft. I have also split each round in thirds. I am still refining it and will post it next week before the draft.

I don't have Kiwinuka, Hali, Moss, Addai, Lewis or McIntosh on my Draft Board. Iam assuming that you have taken Jason Allen and Antonio Cromartie are off because of injury issues.

According to Michael Holley in the book Patriot Reign the Pats use 8 categories to rank players 1. Starter, 2. Circumstantial Starter - 1st year NFL starter who has some type of circumstance (agent, family conflict etc) 3. Make It - a player that won't start his 1st year but will contribute and develop into a strter, 4. Dirty Starter - could start but something about the pklayer is restrictive (speed, athletic ability) 5. Make It - a backup that won't win or lose a game for you. 6. Free Agent, 7. Pats Reject and 8. Reject

spacecrime · #19 04-21-2006, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgteich

If you believe that you would get an equal quality at 31 as 21 (and no other team knows this secret), then indeed you should trade down.

That isn't what Rook is saying at all. I don't think you understand what he means by value groupings.

Or maybe I don't.

As I understand it, value groupings contain players of roughly equal value to the patriots. The key will be to draft the last guy left in this group, not the first. That will give maximum value per pick/$$$spent.

As far as your comment about no other team knowing the secret (assuming you were serious and not just being sarcastic), no two teams should have the same value placed on the player. According to Jimmy Johnson, one of the keys to a successful draft is to put a value on the players, your value, and don't worry where anyone else has set the value for the player. So should all 32 teams use a value grouping system, the various groups for different teams would comprise different players.

How'd I do, Rook? Do I understand your first post? Or am I missing something?

***mgteich*** · #20 04-21-2006, 11:24 PM

space,

Yes, you missed something. I wasn't writing in response to rook, but to BBB.

If you read from the beginning, you will see that I agree with rook's approach, asked for some clarification, and received it is an excellent second post by rook. Actually, as many others, I've been waiting to see rook's list and analysis.

I would like to expand his last category a bit, and perhaps add another, so that we can use the list (as we each individually modify it) through the third round. As it is, it is useful through the second.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spacecrime

That isn't what Rook is saying at all. I don't think you understand what he means by value groupings.

Or maybe I don't.

As I understand it, value groupings contain players of roughly equal value to the patriots. The key will be to draft the last guy left in this group, not the first. That will give maximum value per pick/$$$spent.

As far as your comment about no other team knowing the secret (assuming you were serious and not just being sarcastic), no two teams should have the same value placed on the player. According to Jimmy Johnson, one of the keys to a successful draft is to put a value on the players, your value, and don't worry where anyone else has set the value for the player. So should all 32 teams use a value grouping system, the various groups for different teams would comprise different players.

How'd I do, Rook? Do I understand your first post? Or am I missing something?

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