betterthanthealternative

If you are an NFL GM with an average amount of cap space, and you get to pick your spot in the 2009 first round draft order, where would you pick?

The columns below are the 2008 first round contract numbers, from NFL.com. Second column is # of years, third column is contract total in millions, and the fourth column is guaranteed money in millions.

1 5 58 30
2 6 57 29
3 6 72 34
4 6 60 26
5 5 51 23
6 5 50 21
7 5 49 20
8 6 33 17
9 5 23 16
10 5 19 14
11 5 19 13
12 5 18 12
13 5 20 11
14 5 16 10
15 5 16 9
16 5 15 9
17 5 15 9
18 5 30 9
19 5 14 9
20 5 14 8
21 5 14 8
22 5 11 8
23 5 13 7
24 5 12 7
25 5 10 7
26 5 11 7
27 5 12
28 5 11 6
29 5 12 6
30 5 12 6
31 5 11

Note: the 18th pick was for a quarterback (Flacco, Baltimore).

bakes781

That 8th spot looks pretty good. After that 15th is virtually the same as 16-21.

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patchick

Extremely tough question this year. IMO there's a first tier of Patriots talent that runs just 4 deep: Curry, Monroe, Raji, J. Smith. Those could easily be the first 4 players off the board, in some order. So if you opt out of your chance at them based on cost, when do you stop? Is the player value available at #8 really going to be significantly better than at #12? or #16?

BradyManny

I agree, though personally I'd say Monroe doesn't present top 4 value, so I'd say there are only 3 top tier guys for the Pats. Either way, the point is the same, if I'm not in the top 3 in this draft, I'd rather be picking later in the first round. Honestly, I'd just as soon move #23 into 2010 or even into later picks in 2009. The guys I'm targeting as late first/early second round value (and there are plenty), Delmas, Sintim, Barwin, English, Beatty, Nicks, A. Smith, etc., etc. are all just that, guys who may be available with that early 2nd round pick.

patchick

Same opinions here, but different conclusion. Yes, there's a plateau of talent running approximately 20-50. But it's a high plateau. So I'm happy having my pick of the lot of them at 23.

BradyManny

Good points. I'm sure we'll be happy with whoever they get at #23. For all we know, Delmas, Barwin, Sintim, Beatty could go 24, 25, 26, 27, and then I'd feel pretty silly if we'd moved out of #23. I guess I would only trade #23 if I had the chance to move into the 2010 first round, and move up in it (a la w San Fran in 2007), since next season will have more DEs that can project into the 3-4. But I think that's a relatively realistic scenario.

dryheat44

As far as bang for the buck goes, I think the sweet spot is right about at #12. As far as this year, I don't know. I only have seven guys rated as solid first round values for Team New England, and another seven on the cusp. I might just take #4, as I'm fairly confident that Monroe, Smith, Curry, and Raji will all be high-level performers for the six-year duration, and at key positions to boot.

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jmt57

Based strictly on the numbers above, I'd say 10, 12 or 15.

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mayoclinic

In terms of general contract vs. talent issues, I would say 10-15. $19M for Mayo with $14 guaranteed is not that much higher than $13M at 23 with $7 guaranteed, and generally you can get a much better player at 10-15. Besides Mayo, last year we could have had DRC, Ryan Clady, and Brandon Albert, all excellent values filling needs. Plus there's the option of signing them to a 6 year deal.

This year is a bit different, because after the top 5-10 guys (5 for my Pats board, about 10 if you look at a more generic board) there is a significant falloff. I'm not sure that the player I'd get at 14 wouldn't be the same one I'd take at 23 this year. So I'm very happy being where we are.

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