Ungeheuer

So I went back and did a little research on the draft and found some interesting tendencies.

Going back about ten years, one of the most dependable trends is that your chances of getting a very good player drop off significantly after the middle of the second round. Oddly enough, the chances of a bust are about the same in picks 1-10 as they are in picks 20-30 and even 32-45 -- but your chances of a wasted pick rise exponentially after about pick 47.

Just look, year after year. In 2004 there were about 20-21 very productive players in round 1 (and the # of stars is only somewhat higher at the top of the round, which had the likes of Sean Taylor and Phillip Rivers, than it was at the bottom, where there were guys like Steven Jackson and Vince Wilfork), and about 6 or 7 very productive players in the first half of the second round (including guys like Bob Sanders, Karlos Dansby and Jake Grove). But after the first half of the second round, the talent level drops off sharply, and suddenly you have about a 1 in 5 chance of getting even a productive NFL player, to say nothing of a star player. By round 3 you're down to about 5 or 6 good NFL players in the whole round, and only a few of those guys really hit (ie Nick Hardwick, Chris Cooley, Darnell Dockett). Same thing in '07: about 20-21 very good players in round 1, and about 6 or 7 good players at the top of round 2 (including guys like Lamarr Woodley, David Harris, Tony Ugoh and Arron Sears). Then, after pick 48, the desert starts.

I went back and looked and it's like this virtually every year. It seems like after pick 46 or 47, the talent level drops off sharply. Before pick 47, you have about a 50% chance of getting an impact/longtime starter; after 47, the chances drop down to about 20% or less. And by the time you go beyond round 4, the chances drop to about 5-10% at best. It sounds like an obvious observation, but there are really several solid demarcations in the draft -- the middle of the second round (before which you have a good chance of getting a starter, after which you don't) and the end of the fourth round (before which you have a slim chance of getting a starter, after which you have almost no chance).

The reason I bring this up is I'm wondering about the Patriots' draft strategy this year. It seems like a sound course of action would be to either lump pick 89 and pick 59 together and move closer to the middle of the second round, or to sell pick #59 for a higher pick the next year. Because the overwhelming likelihood is that your best value is going to be the picks at 34 and 47, while the pick at 59 is not likely to be much more valuable than the picks at the bottom of the third round. Similar to the first round, where you're as likely to bust in the top 10 as you are at the bottom of the first round, historically speaking you're about as likely to bust at the bottom of round 2 as you are at the end of round 3.

Which means that pick at the bottom of round 2 that the Pats have is probably best traded -- either into next year or up this year.

Thoughts?

patsfaninpa

I think NO will be itching to pick someone by the time the 2nd round roles around.
They lost 2nd and 3RD rounders in Vilma and Shockey trades. Maybe 47 for their first next year. And we can always move up from 59 if we like someone who might not last until 59.

I think Carolina might be willing to trade up 2 if they don't trade Peppers. They don't have a 1st rounder and pick after 59. If they want 47 for their 1st next year, I'd be happy to oblige them.

mayoclinic

I think there are lots of "good" players in this draft through the middle rounds. Some will not pan out and only a few will be stars, but many will be solid. There is great depth in this draft through the top 100 picks and even beyond.

With that in mind, I agree with you that after about pick 50 there seems to be a bit of a drop off. From 20-50 the level is pretty even. A lot of players could go almost anywhere in that range - Eben Britton, William Beatty, Alex Mack, Max Unger, Donald Brown, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Percy Harvin, Brandon Pettigrew, Jarron Gilbert, Ron Brace, Robert Ayers, Connor Barwin, Clint Sintim, Larry English, James Laurinaitis, Alphonso Smith, DJ Moore, Darius Butler, Louis Delmas, Sean Smith, Connor Barwin, etc. That's 22 players who you could 100 people about and get 100 very different orders. But after 50 the level drops a bit. Some of those guys may slip a bit, and there are some others that may end up being as good (Brian Robiskie, James Casey, Jared Cook, Jamon Meredith, Eric Wood, William Moore, Patrick Chung, to name a few). But there is a bit of a dropoff.

So I agree with you about the probability of trading the #58 pick. I could see trading up (#89 and 58 get us to around 43-44, where another of those players listed above might be available), or more likely trading the pick into 2010 to a team which is likely to have an early 2nd round next year, unless one of the above players slides.

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maverick4

99 posts since Oct 05, now that is quality post management right there.

Feep50

1. Clay Matthews
2. William Beatty
3. Louis Delmas
4. Larry English
5. Connor Barwin
6. Brian Robiskie
7. Ebon Britton
8. James Laurinaitis
9. Max Unger
10. Donald Brown

For what it worth.............

I pasted this in the wrong thread! Sheeesh

Box_O_Rocks

- When you say "productive" players, are you strictly talking about starters or do you weight productivity for the round they are drafted? For example, Mayo as an overall #10 started as a rookie, and Banta-Cain as a 7th round pick contributed on Special Teams and didn't start except as an injury replacement. Both are productive for their place in the draft.

- Does you analysis vary team to team?

- Do some draft classes perform worse than others?

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amazinPats

You make some great points. I like to fantasize about draft day trades while I'm on my running machine.

I can see us dumping most of our late round picks this year as we have no room for them on the roster. But basically, I'd like to see us trade one of our second rounders and perhaps our third rounder in order to get another first rounder this year. It would be great to draft an OT with the first pick and take the top rated safety still on the board with the second pick. Perhaps we could trade away another second rounder along with our fourth in exchange for a first rounder next year. So with two later first rounders and a second round pick, we should be able to draft three starting-quality players: OT, Safety, and DE/OLB. The remaining third round pick could be used to draft wide receiver, or running back as a Kevin Faulk replacement. Anyway, with six picks in the first three rounds, we've got a lot of good cards in our hand.

ayjackson

Yet some insist on labelling our 2007 draft as poor because the five of the six players we selected in the 6th and 7th round didn't make our team (though they all made an NFL 53-man rosters).

MetalBleachers

We all like to think that BB and Co. are geniuses and needn't trade up to get quality players (they picked TOM in the SIXTH), but your reasoning makes a lot of sense. They have to pick three, that leaves them eight. Wouldn't mind seeing them package a 2 and 4 or 5 to move up in the second. Not sure how many they should/would use to get a higher first, though.

In any case, they should end up with extra 2010 picks. So to answer the thread question: there's a good chance they'll land a high-quality mid-rounder, but I'd rather see them use the currency while they've got it.

Patriot Missile

It's kind of a no brainer that the chances of getting a good player decrease after round 2 or 3.
But you still have to try because there is always a great player drafted in the middle to late rounds. Koppen 5th, Samuel 4th and Brady 6th etc etc. I know you already know that.

2nd, coaches view later rounds in a different light when it comes to 5th,6th 7th etc. Some of the time they pretty much know that a player will never see the field when they draft them. Or maybe they draft some to contribute to special teams which is just as important to a lot of coaches. I'm sure some are drafted to replace certain players on the practice squad in hopes with a couple of years of coaching and experience they may someday crack the lineup or contribute to the overall of the teams success. If a team doesn't have good practice players how is this helping the starters?

Believe me the draft serves it purpose and that purpose is lost to some who think every player drafted should be a starter for the New England Patriots. There are a lot of other areas coaches are looking at from the mid to later rounds.