mayoclinic

Here's another interesting draft profile from CNNSI:

Position: OLB
Class: Sr
Ht., Wt.: 6-2.5, 256
40 Time: 4.67

BIO: Two-year starter awarded All-Conference honors as a senior after posting 49/10.5/8. Totaled a career-best 93 tackles as a junior.

POSITIVES: Hard-working, aggressive linebacker with terrific instincts. Diagnoses the action and quickly locates the ball. Strong at the point, defeats blocks and wraps up tackling. Takes good angles to the play, gets depth on drops and displays skill in zone coverage. Lined up in a three-point stance and effective off the edge.

NEGATIVES: Not an explosive or quick defender. Marginal skill in pursuit.

ANALYSIS: A prospect who's done everything asked of him. A passionate football player with a good degree of upside potential at the next level. Needs to fine-tune his game yet could quickly find his way into a starting lineup.

The player: Bobby Carpenter, OLB, from 2006. CNNSI gave him a higher grade than they had given DeMarcus Ware the year before (4.08 vs. 3.92), rating him as a 1st round prospect:

SI.com - 2006 NFL Draft - Bobby Carpenter

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bucky

I'm not sure why you posted this particular profile. It's kind of ironic that the Cowboys drafted both of these guys with high draft picks. But I think the only thing you're proving here is that CNNSI profiles are not a good resource for identifying prospects.

jays52

It illustrates the importance of explosion.

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Box_O_Rocks

Mike Mamula had explosion! It must be a very bad thing.

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mayoclinic

Carpenter was probably the most popular choice for the Pats at #21 on draft boards in 2006. He came from a "big time" program, but his weaknesses were somewhat disguised by playing alongside other talented players. He had those wonderful "bloodlines" that Belichick supposedly covets. Sound familiar?

I don't think CNNSI is alone in being less than perfect at identifying prospects. My point in posting these 2 profiles was to show (1) that Ware was not considered a sure-fire 1st round pick a month or so before the 2005 draft (his "red flags" included playing in a lesser conference and being something of a "workout warrior"), and (2) that picking high-character kids from big programs with LB experience and great "bloodlines" isn't necessarily a great recipe for success.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

signbabybrady

So your two points are that guys that aren't surefire first rounders can still be pro bowlers and guys who seem to have the perfect recipe can still be unsuccessful? Shocker

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MetalBleachers

Pick this Carpenter kid! it's not too late!

jays52

Which is why you build franchises around quality football players like Matt Roth and Jason Babin!

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mayoclinic

Sorry to disappoint you. I've always claimed that it was an inexact science at best, and don't think there are any guarantees regarding particular prospects succeeding.

I wouldn't have called Carpenter the "perfect recipe" by any means. There were lots of signs that he might not translate to a great pro, but everyone loved his "bloodlines" and "big time program" pedigree. I think it is instructive to compare Ware and Carpenter's pre-draft evaluation to some of this year's prospects:

- Clint Sintim - nice size, 4 year solid track record, but like Carpenter somewhat slow and limited athletically. People assume he will automatically be successful in BB's system because he played in the 3-4 for Al Groh. Not necessarily true.
- Clay Matthews - smaller than Carpenter and more athletic, but like him a guy from a big program with good "bloodlines" whose weaknesses may be masked by playing alongside other strong prospects.
- Connor Barwin - being questioned as a legitimate 1st round prospect because of his lack of experience and questions as to whether his workout numbers will translate to the field.

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"OVER Loading at ANY position can create a Fatal Advantage. THAT is what interests ME. Attacking With Concentrated Force. THAT is what WINS. In the words ~ more or less ~ of General Patton: 'I'm fighting a WAR, here. Let the B*****ES worry about their FLANKS.' " - Off the Grid

"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi

Box_O_Rocks

Ack! Now I'm confused. Should I be or shaking in fear and trepidation ?

I'll have to ask my cat where my two-headed nickel went.

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