mayoclinic

[QUOTE=DocE;1252677][QUOTE=mayoclinic;1252582]DocE, thanks for the detailed and insightful comments. A lot of what you say in undoubtedly more accurate than what I have (I suspect BB will keep a lot of the "JAGs" that I listed, as he likes continuity and, as you say, they are an important part of the roster), but I wanted to create room to push some intriguing players early on. I've added some responses to your comments in red below (with my original post item in black):

2. Sign UFA OT Jordan Gross (Carolina; 28, 6'4", 305#). Gross is 28, can play both L and R tackle, and fits the Patriots mold. Would allow Light to eventually move to RT. Kaczur and Levoir would be backups, and Kaczur could also play RG and possible replace Neal over time. Contract would be likely be similar to what Tennessee gave Michael Roos. Vernon Carey (Miami) is also an option but will likely be franchised. Khalif Barnes (Jacksonville) is also an option. John Runyan (Philadelphia) may be a short-term option.

I don't see this happening as Gross will be the most coveted OT on the market. I am not a big Kaczur fan, but I see him as a guy you can win with at RT if you are solid in other areas. Khalif Barnes has really regressed the past two years and Jax is looking to upgrade from him, so I doubt the Pats want him as a starter. If the Pats were able to bring in a FA who will command the contract Gross will, I would hope it would be a defender.

I know this is a long shot, but in my dreams we would sign Gross to solidify the OL and then add youth and speed to the S and LB positions through the draft. Carolina has already resigned Chris Gamble to a big contract, and may not be able to resign both Julius Peppers and Gross. Gross making All Pro makes this less likely. If the Pats were to spend the money on a defensive FA of comparable impact, the one I could reasonably see would be Karlos Dansby who could play SILB. In that case we would only take one DE/LB candidate in the draft, and would use the other pick on OT. The problem I see with that is (1) Arizona is likely to resign Dansby long term, and (2) the top 5 OT's are all likely to go top 20. Eben Britten and William Beatty would be viable options in the 29-44 range, but OTs have a tendency to rise quickly in the draft, as they did last year.

4. Sign UFA TE Owen Daniels (Houston); 26, 6'3", 247#. Productive young TE with over 1500 yards receiving in past 2 years. Is what Dave Thomas should have been. Protects against Watson and Thomas being FAs after 2009

Daniels is an RFA not a UFA and I see him getting a first round tender from Houston, so he's not an option.

I stand corrected. I got this from FootballsFuture, which listed him as a UFA. He's obviously not an option. Wish we'd taken him instead of Dave Thomas in 2006.

5. Resign Mike Wright (DE/DT) OR sign UFA DE Chris Canty (Dallas; 26, 6'7", 304#) OR do both and cut Jarvis Green. Keeping Wright and Green would be fine, though Green did not play up to his $5M cap hit. Canty is a young, solid 3-4 DE with great size, who would be an upgrade over either and provide insurance if Big Sey walks after 2009.

Canty will likely get a big FA contract he's 26 and has started every game for 3 years for Dallas. I have seen him rated as the 3rd best FA DE. He is going to start wherever he ends up.

I would be content with resigning Wright and keeping Green, especially if we can restructure Green. I understand Canty is an unlikely option and may be too expensive, but if we think there's a good chance we won't extend Seymour beyond 2009 then he becomes a potentialyl cost-effective replacement at 3-4 DE. Also, Green has a $5M cap hit currently. If we restructure or cut Green, then spending that kind of money on Canty doesn't seem unreasonable. Do you think he would command much more than a 5 year/$25M contract? If Seymour's contract comes off the boards after 2009, then Warren/Canty/Wright/restructured Green would be a solid replacement. There are likely to be a lot of good 3-4 DE candidates in 2010 as well (Namdukong Suh, Vince Oghobasse, Arthur Davis, etc.).

I'm not a capologist and haven't tried to rigorously cost-control my suggestions. I do think that the Pats are able to get creative with the cap, and that if they really want someone they will find a way to create some money.

More responses to your other comments to come. Thanks again for taking the time to reply in detail.

patchick

Lots of interesting stuff to chew on, but one quick thought along the way. There are two moves here that require "two to tango" -- Cassel to Lions, and swapping picks with the Giants -- where you haven't given any suggestion of what's in it for the other guy.

If you were Cassel, would you be willing to negotiate with Detroit if there were ANY other teams interested? And if the Pats feel that the top-level talent in this draft runs into the 40s, wouldn't the Giants feel the same way?

BTW, I'm absolutely fine with a 4th-round punter if the Pats feel he's an elite talent.

BradyManny

I was interested in Gross, but I think Kaczur's play once Neal was back was much better and makes it less of a need.

I like the idea of trading Cassel to Detroit and getting 22, I personally think Detroit is better off doing that than taking either of the QBs going in the first round.

I only like the idea of trading down from one of the first round picks and grabbing another second if there's no one we want at that spot. It could happen, there's definitely a bunch of players in rounds 2-3 I think we could use and would be cheaper than 1st rounders.

ctpatsfan77

First off, props on the Connor Barwin pick, although I think he'd work better at OLB than ILB.

Now, a few slightly-more-than-nitpicks:

This is a serious question--why do you think any TE is going to put up monster stats in an offense that also has Welker? [Seriously--one out of every seven offensive plays the last two years has been a pass attempt to Welker; of the snaps where Welker's on the field that number's about one in five.]

JAGs they might be, but that's basically the entire nucleus of ST plays, and Belichick has seen enough upside in all of them to keep them on the game day roster (obviously not Alexander this year). I'm fairly sure at least one or two of them will be gone, but I think it highly unlikely they'll all be let go.

Evans is a FB, Law Firm is not. OTOH, Evans has been willing in the past to accept below-market deals to stay in New England.

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mayoclinic

Thanks for the comments.

Assuming we franchise Cassel, we can control where he goes. I assume Cassel would be willing to go anywhere where we gets to start and gets paid well, but I understand your point. Detroit could be attractive to Cassel because (1) expectations are so low after going 0-16 that it's hard to do worse, and he will certainly be a big improvement over what they have now; and (2) Calvin Johnson gives him a Moss-like target. As I recall, Furrey is a decent slot receiver as well. So I think he has a reasonable chance to succeed. Also, I think Jim Schwartz has a connection to the BB tree.

I think the trade makes sense for Detroit because they keep the #1 and #33 picks to rebuild. If they drafted a franchise LT (to go with Cherilous at RT where he is a much better fit) then they would have a decent OL to protect their new franchise CB (another positive for Cassel, as I imagine he wouldn't want to go anywhere where he would be running for his life). With Kevin Smith at RB, a decent OL, Johnson and Furrey at WR and Cassel at QB the lions would have a decent offense. Spend their other high picks on the defense (DL, CB, LB) and they would certainly be more competitive than they were this year. So I think Cassel offers them the best chance to get competitive quickly. I think any new coach would like to put some wins on the board in order to buy time and credibility to rebuild for the long haul.

However, I'm not wedded to the Lions as the only option. TB and Minnesota are picking in the same range. I don't see SF as a likely option right now. Carolina doesn't have a 1st round pick, and I don't see them pulling the plug on Jake Delhomme after one bad game. KC might be an option but I don't see them trading #3 in the draft (or us really wanting a pick that high),and we can probably do better than #34-35.

Regarding a trade down with the Giants, it wasn't critical as Alex Mack or a comparable OG could easily fall to us at #57, but I wanted to plant the idea that I could see BB trading a second 1st round pick back and moving up in the 2nd round given the amount of 1st round calibre talent that will be available in the first half of that round. What would be in it for a team like the Giants (I chose them because they have an additional 2nd round pick around #44-45 from New Orleans for Jeremy Shockey; the Dolphins could also be an option as they have an additional pick from Washington for Jason Taylor) was that without having to give up their additional 2nd round pick they could move up 9 spots or so to target someone. The Pats gave a 3rd rounder in 2002 to move up from 32 to 21 to get Dan Graham, so a swap of second round picks seems not entirely unreasonable. I could see the Giants moving up to get their MLB of choice (Laurinaitis), an additional pass rusher (Michael Johnson or Aaron Maybin), an OT (Eben Britton) or a big WR threat given how anemic their offense became without Plaxico Burress (DHB, Kenny Britt, or Brandon LaFell might be options).

These were just ideas to provoke thought. I'm not wedded to either, but I think the scenarious are realistic and were worth putting out there. Thanks.

zero

1.- Franchise Cassel and trade him for Tampa's 19th selection and a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 draft
2.- I don't see enough cap romm for Gross
3.- Jabari Greer Check
4.- Owen Daniels is a RFA so he's going to be tender by Texans (probably for a 1st round)
5.- Mike Wright Check
6.- Jabar Gaffney Check
7.- James Sanders as a backup and Sean Jones as a starter Check
8.- Shadow roster: Colvin and Seau Active Roster: Harrison (leadership)
9.- Restructure Vrabel and Neal, cut JGreen Chek Woods Check (as a RFA)

Draft

1 (19).- CB D.J. Moore (Valderbilt) I like a lot Sean Smith from Utah but with Sean Jones, Meriweather, Harrison and James Sanders we are set.
1 (23).- DE/OLB Paul Kruger Check
2(47).- DE/OLB/ILB Connor Baldwin Check
2 (57).- G/C Jonathan Luigs (Alex Mack isn't going to be here)
3 (86).- RB Devin Moore Check
3 (97).- WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio State) I like him at this point
4 (22).- K. Huber Check
4 (Cond. pick).- TE Bear Pascoe (Fresno State)

Isaac

Awesome thread. Thank you MayoC for your attention to detail.

Seneschal2

I sincerely thank you for your effort. Time doesn't allow me for any in depth analysis except to say, the signability of some of our starters will seriously influence our draft selections, and determine how much of a splash we make in FA. In addition, it's still early in the draft process to know for certain where these prospects will accurately project. But this is only your first mock, knowing you'll adjust as we go.

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"What we want to try to do is maximize each spot on the roster; we want to be stronger at No. 1 than the opponent, stronger at No. 25 than they are, and stronger at No. 53 than they are, we're always looking to upgrade the talent level on the team, and play together to be functional."
- Bill Belichick -

mayoclinic

I like it. I'm fine with the trade to TB as an alternative to Minnesota or Detroit. A couple of thoughts:

1.-I accept that we probably won't be able to sign Gross, but could still see us getting a RT option in FA. Steve Tauscher and John Runyan have been listed as short-term options. I'm still not entirely comfortable with Kaczur at RT. I think his improved play in the second half of 2008 was due mainly to the return of Stephen Neal at RG, who compensated some for him.
2.-If we resign Sanders AND sign Sean Jones then I agree we don't need S in the 1st. I LOVE DJ Moore, but could see him easily go top 20.
3.-I like Luigs (and there were reports that the Pats were scouting Arkansas earlier in the year, so they may like him too) but like Mack better, which is why I suggested the trade back in the 1st/up in the 2nd round. Draftscout currently lists Mack around #58 in its top 64 2009 prospects, so he could possibly fall to us at 57, but I would be much more confident if we had another pick in the top half of the round. Luigs is a good alternative.
4.-Robiskie is a reasonable WR option. Dillard seems like a typical Pats choice - not great measurables but runs precise routes and catches everything. Either one would be fine.
5.-I had considered Bear Pascoe, but reports from the Shrine Game practices are not encouraging. By all reports he looks clumsy and awkward against even that level of competition.

CanadianPat'sFan

That was a great read Mayoclinic....and by the way I love the name.

Assumptions: I think Brady should be back in 2009 and we drafted a QB in the third last year so I would say BB knows something about this kid which make me more comfortable to let Cassel go. I like Seymour and we would be hard pressed to find a replacement (with knowledge and production in 3-4)in the short term so I see him staying like you. If Wright continues to play well and we resign him maybe we could let Seymour go after 2009 but Wright is a key guy we need to resign. Extending Wilfork is a must aswell.

Needs: DB's, DB's DB's you have that exactly right. The two rookies from 2008 could have a great off season and come in to compete but I think we need to get a corner who can compete as a #1 and move Hobbs to # 2 corner and have Whilite/Wheatly fight it out as the nickel. LB would be nice to upgrade but there are alot of young guys I am intrested to see next preseason (Crable, Guyton, Redd and Woods). Maybe a versatile vet but as I said I wonder how the offseason is going to treat this young guys.

Overall Plan: The only thing I really do not agree with is Kaczer, I think to get a replacement will cost too much in the FA market and he did start in one of the most productive offense in NFL history. While I know he is not rock solid I think he can do the job and we look to the draft to see if anyone could push him this year.

Details
1. Franchise Cassel - totally agree NE has an assets and they will use it....him. What about SF at # 10 in the draft. If we could get the CB from Ohio State Jenkins (if GB does not take him at #9) might be an option I was teasing myself with.
2. Sign Jordan Gross - the only thing I disagree with as we have won with Kaczer before I think draft someone at the end of day one to push him and provide depth on the O-line.
3. Sign Jabari Greer - I really like this one and love the way he plays. I like Robinson from the Texans pre-injury but this all has to do with $$ as FA the last few years have been getting silly $ sometimes like another old Buffalo corner who is rich in SF.
4. Sign Owen Danials - Well I love this kid as he is young but I would be surprised if the Texans let him go as he is smart and very productive for Matt Swaub. Other then Johnson he is their second best target and the $$ he would want might be steep.
5. Resign Mike Wright - Totally agree and I hope we can get him for a good price. Very productive player who I have enjoyed watching unlike Green who has to go. We can find a replacement for Green in the draft (at a much cheaper price).
6. Resign Jabar Gaffney - I read an article which said that he wanted to return and if we get him at a good price he is worth it. I remember him have pretty good timing and rhythm with Brandy. I do not see him dropping too many TD's and wanting to face Brandy in the huddle
7. Yes the Safety situation could be a mess but BB knows how important the position is and he will make sure it will not be a weakness. I think they will use there first pick on a Safety (Unless someone falls or there is no value where they pick) plus if they do make a splash on the FA market I think it will be at Safety. With multiple first day picks and the need BB may part with a draft pick to get one of these RFA to shore up an important spot. The should resign the Sanders and Rodney I love but after another big injury I am unsure he will be able to comeback as productive as before. Just throwing this out there but Lawyer Milloy if a FA this year.......Just kidding !!!
8. I agree with a lot of those name that have to go, I know we all have our loyalties but this is about winning games and is a business. Jordan if we could get back cheep would be alright but I think the law firm could act as the third RB (with Faulk as our 3rd down) and Morris and Maroney fighting out as the starter. A couple of others we would keep for depth but some need to go.
9. Agree but will they be willing to restructure to win??? I hope so.
10. Totally agree with resigning Evans and Woods.

2009 Draft:
I love you first pick as BB will love his versatility but may be too tall for a corner. Connor Barwin is growing on me a a lot the more I have read about this kid keeps getting better. I do not think that Mack will slide that far down unless Max Unger from Oregon overtakes him as the best Center in the draft. In the third round (86) instead of a RB I might take a RT as I mention above someone to push Kaczer this year and be there for 2010. I would take a RB in the 5th somewhere or after (R. Torian, Hightower and Hillis were all drafted 5th or later) Punter I cannot argue with with but I hope with Brady back we will not be punting too many times

As for your long snapper my buddy is the snapper for the BC Lions of the CFL and I tried over the Christmas break to get him to drive down with me to snap in the parking lot of Gillette Stadium until BB (or more likely security)come out to see why two jackasses are out in the parking lot snapping the ball