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Old 01-09-2009, 11:01 AM   #11
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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I think it's a slight stretch to say Mayo was "penciled in" as a starter. You'll recall that he took 2nd team reps alongside Hobson behind Tank Williams and Bruschi. It was a couple weeks into camp before he saw any 1st team time, and that started around players getting dinged up or otherwise missing reps. That the kid played as well as he did this year is a testament to his talent and his hard work - I loved the story about his plans to stay right here in NE and work with the coaches on getting better. Whether Bru comes back in 2009 or not, I'll always believe that Mayo is carrying the Bru heritage with him.

Your point on Gay & Hobbs not seeing any starts right away is well made, they were the standard I was using for Wheatley and Wilhite, which was proved out when Wheatley got the week 9 start - BB gives the kids a taste as they develop to get them ready before throwing them in the fire mid-season.

Another good point on Vince. He was halfway into his sophomore year, after a handful of starts as a rookie and starting all of his sophomore year, before his play at NT steadied down and he stopped trying to force things. It's been Rock of New England time ever since.

I read a lot of folks going off on rookies and players in their 2nd and 3rd seasons for not playing like All-Pros, yet history doesn't support such radical expectations. Give the kids the time BB does and know that by itself, being on the roster is a vote of confidence - wait and bash them when they get released.
regarding mayo, I believe it was the plan to have him start ASAP......hobson was jettisoned the first moment that it was realized that mayo will work from the outset........as with any rookie, you have to deal with the higher tendency for 'rookie mistakes', but the point I did not make is that none of these guys made the team regret putting them out as rookies......maybe its their fail-safe plan, but then again, maybe they are too cautious.....

sometimes you have to damn the torpedoes and go in another direction and it works out like you never thought it would........both koppen and wilson were examples of this.....guys who pretty much did not take a snap with the first unit all preseason, but stepped in and fit the scheme very well......koppen sent a probowl center (woody) to OG........

there is a flip-side of being over cautious that way.........the perfect example was eric alexander versus the colts in the 2006 AFCC.....the guy was lost out there.......I'd like to say because he just stinks, but the fact is that if he had gotten any meaningful time during the regular season, he probably would have made a play on 3rd down that he had missed, changing the entire outcome of that game.....it was that close.......the pats could have easily afforded to get him on the field during the regular season....there were 6 blowouts during the regular season and one in the playoffs where alexander could have gotten valuable PT in 2006 and not have to be thrown to the wolves versus the colts.......there was no excuse for that
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Old 01-09-2009, 11:14 AM   #12
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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To me, its clear - Patriots first round picks are expected to contribute sooner rather than later. The complexities of its offensive and defensive playbooks be damned, if you were taken mid to late in the first round, you ought to be starting consistently by year 2, and if you were taking mid to early first round, you ought to be starting consistently during year 1.

Something to keep in mind when considering need & value on our Day 1 picks.
Good post, and I agree. Something else to keep in mind are two other factors:

1) Injuries to the rookie crop. In most drafts, there's always a rookie or two who gets hurt, inevitably slowing the learning curve. The NFL transition can be difficult enough, but when you also lose valuable practice reps due to injury, chances are you'll delay and/or limit your opportunities for any game action. And if competing for a starting role, it won't happen by game one.

2) Competition and experience. Let's say our first round pick this draft is a Safety. Obviously Merriweather is set at one Safety position, while Sanders and the rest represent competition for the rookie. No doubt the rook would have more athletic ability than the others, but have zero experience. This is a position IMO where a rookie wouldn't start from game one, but could later on.

If we consider these factors, the idea of rookies starting is possible, but dependent upon their health, competition for the position, and their ability to grasp the offense or defense.
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Old 01-09-2009, 11:42 AM   #13
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

I would add that I have much greater expectations of a blue chipper than those drafted later in the first round. Depending on the draft that division line somewhere between 8 and about 12. So, I did expect a lot from Seymour and Mayo. And, I viewed Wilfork as a blue-chipper who we were very lucky to acquire when we did. I was disappointed with his progress during his rookie year.

I have much less expectation when we draft at 13 or below.
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Old 01-09-2009, 12:46 PM   #14
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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Mankins, Seymour, Wilfork & Mayo all became established as the starter at some point in their rookie season. That's 4 out of 9. Watson, had he not been injured, also would've started. And Maroney might as well be called a starter in his rookie year, as he and Dillon basically split.
Seymour, Mankins, and Mayo are the only people on that list that were starters right away. Wilfork played very little time that hear.
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Old 01-09-2009, 01:16 PM   #15
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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Seymour, Mankins, and Mayo are the only people on that list that were starters right away. Wilfork played very little time that hear.
He started 6 games as a rookie, which isn't too shabby, and he also started in the Super Bowl. So again, he was the starter by the end of the rookie year, and he did start every game the ensuing season.
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Old 01-09-2009, 01:19 PM   #16
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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I would add that I have much greater expectations of a blue chipper than those drafted later in the first round. Depending on the draft that division line somewhere between 8 and about 12. So, I did expect a lot from Seymour and Mayo. And, I viewed Wilfork as a blue-chipper who we were very lucky to acquire when we did. I was disappointed with his progress during his rookie year.

I have much less expectation when we draft at 13 or below.
I agree. Like I said, that's the difference between a guy who starts in year 1 and a guy who starts in year 2. 2nd half of round 1 may be given a year to acclimate himself, first half of round 1 is not. Obviously Mankins was asked to start right away and Maroney pretty much was starter 1B immediately.
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Old 01-09-2009, 01:23 PM   #17
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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I think it's a slight stretch to say Mayo was "penciled in" as a starter. You'll recall that he took 2nd team reps alongside Hobson behind Tank Williams and Bruschi. It was a couple weeks into camp before he saw any 1st team time, and that started around players getting dinged up or otherwise missing reps. That the kid played as well as he did this year is a testament to his talent and his hard work - I loved the story about his plans to stay right here in NE and work with the coaches on getting better. Whether Bru comes back in 2009 or not, I'll always believe that Mayo is carrying the Bru heritage with him.
Tank and Bru might've been practicing together, but by the first preseason game, Mayo was starter. As you said in another thread, Tank's time at WILB next to Bruschi was more or less a crash course to get him ready for nickel packages, and that the team likely didn't ever intend to use him at WILB in the base 3-4 as a starter. I think, with the ability of hindsight, Mayo was drafted to start. The only other option they would've had was to call up Seau.
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Old 01-09-2009, 01:57 PM   #18
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

So, if I need a RG or RT in 2009 to be expected to be able to start in 2009, then the last half of the 1st round or in the second round is where I should look to draft my player.

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I agree. Like I said, that's the difference between a guy who starts in year 1 and a guy who starts in year 2. 2nd half of round 1 may be given a year to acclimate himself, first half of round 1 is not. Obviously Mankins was asked to start right away and Maroney pretty much was starter 1B immediately.
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Old 01-09-2009, 11:30 PM   #19
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

I agree 100% with the OP. If BB doesn't make a splash in FA (ie AD), expected him to pair a draftee with a washed up vet to replace him the next year if not sooner.

Meriweather - Wilson
Wilfork -Traylor
Mankins - Andruzzi
Maroney - Dillon

This year I'm thinking OLB to replace Vrable, or SS if Harrison comes back.
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Old 01-10-2009, 11:51 AM   #20
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Default Re: Pats 1st round picks and short term need

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I agree 100% with the OP. If BB doesn't make a splash in FA (ie AD), expected him to pair a draftee with a washed up vet to replace him the next year if not sooner.

Meriweather - Wilson
Wilfork -Traylor
Mankins - Andruzzi
Maroney - Dillon

This year I'm thinking OLB to replace Vrable, or SS if Harrison comes back.
Andruzzi wasn't with the Pats when Mankins was brought in. He's already moved on to Cleveland. Its what precipitated them looking at Mankins for the LG position.
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