{"id":9797,"date":"2016-12-16T08:09:21","date_gmt":"2016-12-16T13:09:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=9797"},"modified":"2016-12-16T09:48:18","modified_gmt":"2016-12-16T14:48:18","slug":"patriots-broncos-keys-razors-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2016\/12\/16\/patriots-broncos-keys-razors-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots – Broncos Keys, Who Has the Razor’s Edge?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> head out to the Mile High City as they take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ -TV Channel 4 in Boston. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Phil Simms as the color analyst. Tracy Woolfson will work the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The SportsHub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Cappello.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Patriots<\/strong>\u00a0(11-2) beat the Ravens 30-23 on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns as the Patriots rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense. Shea McClellin blocked a punt and LeGarrette Blount topped the 1000-yard mark for the season and picked up his league-leading 14th<\/sup> rushing touchdown.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Broncos <\/strong>(8-5) lost in Tennessee to the Titans 13-10. The loss was Denver\u2019s third in the last six games and now they face New England, Kansas City, and Oakland in their final three games as they try to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n

We here at\u00a0PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0are continuing our \u201cRazor\u2019s Edge\u201d\u00a0column in 2016 to give some quick\u00a0analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.<\/p>\n

Series History:<\/strong>
\nThe Patriots and Broncos are meeting for the 52nd<\/sup> time since 1960 when the AFL first opened. No place has been tougher to win for the Patriots since they entered the league as they\u2019re just 9-21 on the road. The series has been dominated in recent years by the whoever is playing at home. The home teams have won 9 out of the past 10 games with the only victory on the road was the Pats in December 2011 defeating the Tim Tebow led Broncos.<\/p>\n

Denver took both games last year, a 30-24 overtime win in Mile High in November and 20-18 in the AFC Championship Game, where a missed extra point by Stephen Gostkowski turned out to be the difference in the teams not going to overtime.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor\u2019s Edge.<\/p>\n

First up is the Patriots offense:<\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs Broncos Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots rushing offense is averaging 115.5 yards per game, a huge turnaround from 2015. LeGarrette Blount has over 1000 yards and 14 touchdowns, with Dion Lewis and James White giving them plenty of options in the running game behind a rejuvenated offensive line.<\/p>\n

Denver\u2019s rush defense has struggled for most of 2016, after being the number 6 unit against the run last year. The Broncos are currently the 29th<\/sup> ranked rush defense allowing 127.2 yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to run right at the Broncos aggressive pair of edge rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware with runs off-tackle to counter their upfield pass rush moves. Blount and Dion Lewis should give the Patriots a sizeable edge this time around and help keep the chains moving.<\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs Broncos Secondary –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Denver
\n<\/em><\/strong>It isn\u2019t often that we give anyone an edge of the Patriots and Tom Brady in the passing game but Denver\u2019s defense is #1 against the pass for a reason. First, they have a tremendous pass rush with Miller, Ware, and Shane Ray and have 38 sacks, most in the AFC and only one behind Carolina for the league lead.<\/p>\n

They also boast two of the best cornerbacks in the league with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris who can blanket and shut down most receivers they\u2019ll face. The Patriots offense is still trying to find the production from losing Rob Gronkowski and they\u2019re doing it by spreading the ball around.<\/p>\n

This may not be a huge statistical game for Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell but the keys this week may lie in the backs out of the backfield. Yesterday we wrote a piece<\/a> about how the Patriots can defeat the Broncos pass defense by utilizing the backs in the passing game.<\/p>\n

By attacking the Denver linebackers in space, White and Lewis can provide big mismatches in the passing game. Both Todd Davis and Brandon Marshall are hurting and may not even play. The Patriots would be best served by going after each, much like Atlanta did in Week 5.<\/p>\n

Martellus Bennett is the Pats \u201cX-Factor\u201d here. If the blocking on the OL holds up, he can be a valuable piece in the passing game. Look for him to be an added weapon in the middle of the field. Since last season, the Patriots tight ends lead the NFL in yards per reception with 15.2 (172 catches, 2616 yards), the NFL average is 11.0.<\/p>\n

Prior to last week’s game, James White has averaged a touchdown on every 10.9 receptions (87 receptions, 8 TDs) since the 2015 season. That is tops in the NFL among 37 qualified RBs. The average is 26.9. This is according to Inside Edge Scouting.<\/p>\n

Next up the Denver offense:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Broncos RBs vs NE Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Broncos have struggled at running the football in 2016. Once they lost C.J. Anderson to injury, their offense has become virtually one-dimensional. They\u2019ve plugged rookie Devontae Booker in as the lead back but he\u2019s struggled. Denver is averaging just 93.5 yards per game.<\/p>\n

New England\u2019s rush defense is improving every week and is currently 10th<\/sup> in the NFL allowing just 90.2 yards per game. Alan Branch and Malcolm Brown have done a tremendous job at slowing things at the point of attack allowing the linebackers to clean up. But the edge players, Chris Long, Rob Ninkovich, and Jabaal Sheard deserve a nod as well, in setting the edge.<\/p>\n

Denver brought in Justin Forsett who played for Broncos\u2019 coach Gary Kubiak in Houston and he got some work last week in Tennessee. But the ground game sputtered. Look for the Patriots to try to force Denver into being one-dimensional and forcing them to throw to win. That is always a winning formula when facing a first-year starting QB.<\/p>\n

Broncos WRs vs NE Secondary-\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Denver offense lost not one but two starting QBs this offseason when Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler signed with Houston. Trevor Siemian was good in the early going but once Anderson went down, the onus of carrying the offense on his shoulders has been a bit much.<\/p>\n

He has two tremendous targets in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders who can each single-handedly turn a game around. Both are having solid seasons. Sanders needs just 42 yards and Thomas just 75 to break the 1000-yard barrier on the season. They are the 1-2 punch that the Patriots will have to slow down this week.<\/p>\n

With the changes to the defense over the past several weeks, the Pats have settled into a rotation and have solidified the defense. They\u2019re playing faster and more instinctive and I look for that to continue. Look for Matt Patricia to do more of what we saw on Monday night.<\/p>\n

The Patriots will mix their coverages and pass rush pressures from different points and sometimes drop their defensive ends into throwing lanes while sending safety or corner blitzes in an attempt to confuse Siemian and force into making some mistakes.<\/p>\n

Special Teams-<\/strong>\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Denver<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>The Patriots special teams had a very strong game last week with the exception of the return game. Stephen Gostkowski made all four extra point attempts. Ryan Allen pinned Baltimore inside the five-yard line twice. The coverage units were solid. But the Achilles heel was the return game. With Danny Amendola injured the team put Cyrus Jones back there. He\u2019s struggled all year holding onto punts and kickoffs. He botched a punt again giving the Ravens the ball at the Pats three-yard line.<\/p>\n

The Broncos have had inconsistencies of their own. Brandon McManus has made only 9 of 13 kicks beyond 40 yards and rookie punter Riley Dixon has a net punting average of just 41.2 yards per punt. The return game has been so-so although their coverage units have been solid.<\/p>\n

Denver gets the nod here solely on the Patriots question mark at the return game. Julian Edelman may be pressed back into service which isn\u2019t what the team wants but until Amendola is back, they currently have few options.<\/p>\n

Next up, who wins and why\u2026<\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/strong>This game like every game in Denver has to be taken as a question mark. In their 56 years of existence, the Patriots have saved some of their worst football for games in the thin air. When the schedule was announced, I had this one chalked up as a loss for precisely those reasons above. But certain factors have changed.<\/p>\n

The Broncos are one-dimensional on both sides of the ball. They\u2019ve struggled to run effectively and to stop the run. That makes them vulnerable against the better teams in the league and it is a big reason why they\u2019re 8-5 this season.<\/p>\n

The Broncos pass defense is #1 and their pass rush is outstanding but with a couple of banged up linebackers and a rush defense that is suspect, the Patriots have enough weapons, especially out of the backfield to put pressure on them defensively. Lewis and White have big games in the passing game and the defense gets a turnover or two. Siemian will get yardage but it won\u2019t be enough. Blount closes the door late and lo and behold the Patriots win one in the Rockies. Patriots 27-17<\/strong><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter\u00a0<\/em>@SteveB7SFG<\/em><\/a>\u00a0or email me at\u00a0<\/em>stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our\u00a0<\/em>Patriots 4th<\/sup>\u00a0and 2<\/em><\/a>\u00a0podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from\u00a0<\/em>PatsFans.com<\/em><\/a>\u00a0discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

James White has averaged a touchdown on every 10.9 receptions (87 receptions, 8 TDs) since the 2015 season. 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