{"id":74405,"date":"2026-08-24T05:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T09:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=74405"},"modified":"2026-08-23T13:23:26","modified_gmt":"2026-08-23T17:23:26","slug":"patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2026\/08\/24\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots Math Doesn’t Work: Maye Would Need Otherworldly Numbers For Boutte To Stay"},"content":{"rendered":"

When it comes to Kayshon Boutte, the conversations continue about his future, especially when you take into consideration how jam-packed New England’s receiving room is.<\/p>\n

It’s a depth chart that, at this point of the preseason, has seven players worthy of consideration.\u00a0 New England returns a group that replaced Stefon Diggs with both A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, providing an offense that finished second in the league in scoring last season<\/strong><\/a> with two explosive playmakers.<\/p>\n

But Brown’s acquisition this offseason tipped the scale.\u00a0 It not only gave the Patriots a bona fide No. 1 receiver but also drastically altered the dynamic within the rest of that group.<\/p>\n

Adding two high-quality players, especially given who they already had, essentially made it impossible for everyone to stay.<\/p>\n

Count me among those who don’t want to see Boutte depart unless it involves future currency that will help this football team.\u00a0 Moving him for a fifth- or sixth-round pick, especially for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, doesn’t feel like a deal worth making<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, looking closer, the Patriots also currently have math working against them.\u00a0 And the numbers just don’t work.<\/p>\n

After putting together a prediction tool<\/strong> <\/a>that takes a projected total for Drake Maye this season and spreads the numbers out among the receivers, things just don’t add up.<\/p>\n

\"Jan
(PHOTO: David Butler II-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Patriots 2026 Passing Offense Projections:<\/h3>\n

After playing around with it, which included removing Boutte from the equation, this is how the numbers worked out.\u00a0 There was no formula or algorithm, just educated guesses based on past performances, trying to see where Maye would need to finish to even accommodate these totals:<\/p>\n

2026 Projected Totals<\/h4>\n

🏈QB Drake Maye:
\n🎯 4,785 Yds | 🚀 39 TDs<\/p>\n

— Wide Receivers —
\n▶ A.J. Brown: 855 Yds, 9 TD
\n▶ Romeo Doubs: 625 Yds, 7 TD
\n▶ DeMario Douglas: 485 Yds, 4 TD
\n▶ Mack Hollins: 370 Yds, 2 TD
\n▶ Kyle Williams: 360 Yds, 3 TD
\n▶ Efton Chism III: 195 Yds, 1 TD<\/p>\n

— Tight Ends —
\n▶ Hunter Henry: 685 Yds, 8 TD
\n▶ Eli Raridon: 395 Yds, 3 TD<\/p>\n

— Running Backs —
\n▶ TreVeyon Henderson: 330 Yds, 1 TD
\n▶ Rhamondre Stevenson: 245 Yds, 1 TD
\n▶ Reggie Gilliam: 135 Yds, 0 TD
\n▶ Lan Larison: 105 Yds, 0 TD<\/p>\n

Created with YardShare at PatsFans.com<\/a><\/p>\n

This would see Maye increase his 2025 total passing yards from 4,394 to 4,785 in 2026, and his touchdown total from 31 to 39.<\/p>\n

That yardage total would put him ahead of last year’s NFL-leading passer Matthew Stafford, who finished the regular season with 4,707 yards passing with 46 touchdowns.\u00a0 Second in the NFL was Jared Goff, who finished off his campaign with 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns.\u00a0 Dak Prescott came in 3rd with 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns, while Maye was 4th with his total.<\/p>\n

So, as it currently stands, Maye would need to have a better season than his peers, and that’s just to give the guys he has now numbers that align with their previous production.<\/p>\n

\"Aug
Patriots WR, Kyle Williams. (PHOTO: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Several Players Expected to Have Bigger Roles<\/h3>\n

The charts below show last year’s totals vs this year’s projected totals.\u00a0 The caveat here is that Kyle Williams seems to be expected to have a bigger role, as does DeMario Douglas.\u00a0 So both players were given slightly higher totals than the previous season.\u00a0 Hollins would likely be one of the key guys affected, which is why his numbers are a little lower.<\/p>\n

Both Brown’s and Doubs’ totals were reduced primarily because of how their numbers stacked up relative to everyone else.<\/p>\n

As it is, Efton Chism will likely see more time at various points throughout the season because injuries happen, and the odds are good that, given his growth, he’ll be part of their future.\u00a0 Also likely factoring in will be Reggie Gilliam and Lan Larison (who seems poised to earn a role as the #3 running back).<\/p>\n

But looking below, the math doesn’t leave much room for Boutte:<\/p>\n

Passing Totals (Reg Season – Yds | TD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n
Name<\/th>\nLast Season<\/th>\n2026 Projection<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Drake Maye<\/td>\n4,394 | 31<\/td>\n4,785 | 39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Receiving Totals (Reg Season)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Name<\/th>\n2025 (Yds | TD)<\/th>\n2026 Projection (Yds | TD)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
A.J. Brown<\/td>\n1,003 | 7<\/td>\n855 | 9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Romeo Doubs<\/td>\n724 | 6<\/td>\n625 | 7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DeMario Douglas<\/td>\n447 | 3<\/td>\n485 | 4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mack Hollins<\/td>\n550 | 2<\/td>\n370 | 2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kyle Williams<\/td>\n209 | 3<\/td>\n360 | 3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Efton Chism<\/td>\n75 | 1<\/td>\n195 | 1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hunter Henry<\/td>\n768 | 7<\/td>\n685 | 8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eli Raridon<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n395 | 3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TreVeyon Henderson<\/td>\n221 | 1<\/td>\n330 | 1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rhamondre Stevenson<\/td>\n345 | 2<\/td>\n245 | 1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Reggie Gilliam<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n135<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lan Larison<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Odd Man Out<\/h3>\n

Boutte finished last season with 551 yards receiving, third most on the team.\u00a0 Barring Maye throwing for over 5,000 yards, there’s no room for that production.\u00a0 At best, you could remove 100 yards from Chism and maybe rookie tight end Eli Raridon, but that’s 200 yards – and not much room from there.\u00a0 Perhaps you subtract 70 from Larison, but 270 still wouldn’t be enough. The only other player might be Williams, but it feels like he’ll see more targets this year.<\/p>\n

\"Jan
Kayshon Boutte during the 2025\/26 postseason. (PHOTO: David Butler II-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Yet, even if you remove 100 yards from his total, would Boutte be happy with 370 yards for the season?\u00a0 And keep in mind, Brown and Doubs’ totals are both already below where they each finished last season.<\/p>\n

Boutte also scored six touchdowns.\u00a0 Seeing Maye go over 40 touchdowns would be amazing, and 45 would be unbelievable.<\/p>\n

But the snaps and the yards have to come from somewhere, and again, when you take into account everyone they have and the past production, the math just doesn’t work.<\/p>\n

Don’t take my word for it.\u00a0 Play with the tool<\/strong><\/a> and see if you can have it make sense where Boutte would finish the season with numbers close to where he finished last season without giving Maye record-setting and MVP-worthy numbers.<\/p>\n

\"Jul
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Still, for additional context, it’s certainly possible Maye could be “that guy” in terms of putting up massive totals and taking his spot among the NFL’s elite.\u00a0 After all, Joe Burrow finished with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in 2024, and Patrick Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2022.\u00a0 Justin Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs, and Tom Brady passed for 5,316 yards and 43 TDs in 2021.\u00a0 Jameis Winston threw for 5,109 yards and 33 TDs in 2019.\u00a0 It can be done, especially when you take into account that Maye has put himself alongside or ahead of a couple of those names.<\/p>\n

As a result, from a yardage standpoint, Maye breaking the 5,000-yard mark isn’t impossible.\u00a0 But no matter how the numbers shake out, it’s still tough because his final totals have to account for everyone.<\/p>\n

For now, asking Maye to put up totals where everyone is productive and happy feels like a big ask given the numbers he’d need to finish with.\u00a0 It’s another reason it’s hard to believe the Patriots can somehow make it all work if all seven guys stick around as they pare their roster down in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

The totals simply make it feel unrealistic, and it feels like Boutte may have known that when, according to Karen Guregian of MassLive.com<\/strong><\/a>, the receiver asked the team to consider trading him back in April.<\/p>\n

He likely saw the writing on the wall.\u00a0 And he apparently already did the math and realized that if he stays, putting up the numbers he’s looking for would require an otherworldly performance by his quarterback in the coming months.<\/p>\n

That’s why the math makes it extremely difficult to keep everyone. As much as all of us would love to see Maye sling it over the next five months (and hopefully into February), it just feels unrealistic.<\/p>\n

If it happens, that would definitely be incredible.\u00a0 But for now, it’s also why Boutte’s future will remain in question heading into 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analyzing the Patriots’ crowded receiver room, projections for Drake Maye’s 2026 season suggest there’s no room for Kayshon Boutte’s production.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":74191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_pfeai_meta_description":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10,23152],"tags":[2210,23280,23466,23768,24172,1604,23278,59,23701,44,22588,22959,23738],"class_list":["post-74405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-news","category-pf","tag-a-j-brown","tag-demario-douglas","tag-drake-maye","tag-efton-chism-iii","tag-eli-raridon","tag-hunter-henry","tag-kayshon-boutte","tag-kyle-williams","tag-mack-hollins","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-rhamondre-stevenson","tag-romeo-doubs","tag-treveyon-henderson"],"yoast_head":"\nPatriots Math Doesn't Work: Maye Would Need Otherworldly Numbers For Boutte To Stay<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyzing the Patriots' crowded receiver room, projections for Drake Maye's 2026 season suggest there's no room for Kayshon Boutte's production.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2026\/08\/24\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Patriots Math Doesn't Work: Maye Would Need Otherworldly Numbers For Boutte To Stay | PatsFans.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Analyzing the Patriots' crowded receiver room, projections for Drake Maye's 2026 season suggest there's no room for Kayshon Boutte's production.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2026\/08\/24\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"PatsFans.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pfans\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-24T09:00:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-11T223209Z_344856362_MT1USATODAY29562220_RTRMADP_3_NFL-NEW-ENGLAND-PATRIOTS-JOINT-PRACTICE-INDIANAPOLIS-COLTS-AND-NEW-ENGLAND-PATRIOTS-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ian Logue\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ianlogue\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@patsfans\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/24\\\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/24\\\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ian Logue\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/db6e18fced8812d75a4ab2f185f09598\"},\"headline\":\"Patriots Math Doesn’t Work: Maye Would Need Otherworldly Numbers For Boutte To Stay\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-08-24T09:00:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/24\\\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1284,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/24\\\/patriots-math-doesnt-work-maye-would-need-otherworldly-numbers-for-boutte-to-stay\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.patsfans.com\\\/patriots\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/2026-08-11T223209Z_344856362_MT1USATODAY29562220_RTRMADP_3_NFL-NEW-ENGLAND-PATRIOTS-JOINT-PRACTICE-INDIANAPOLIS-COLTS-AND-NEW-ENGLAND-PATRIOTS-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"A.J. 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