{"id":66670,"date":"2026-05-15T04:30:20","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T08:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=66670"},"modified":"2026-05-14T23:26:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T03:26:44","slug":"morse-patriots-schedule-win-projection-and-udfa-bonuses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2026\/05\/15\/morse-patriots-schedule-win-projection-and-udfa-bonuses\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: 2026 Patriots Schedule, Win Projection and UDFA Bonuses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Having won the division, the Patriots will have an upper-level schedule of non-division opponents, as well as playing the NFC North.<\/p>\n

Based upon last season’s win totals, the Patriots will face a projected 6th<\/sup> toughest schedule.\u00a0 However, Warren Sharp of Warren Sharp Football Analysis states the Patriots have the 12th<\/sup> toughest schedule, which is right on the mid-line of tough vs easy schedule.\u00a0 His analysis is based upon the Las Vegas Odds on number of wins projected for each team.\u00a0 Neither projection takes into consideration the way the schedules lays out.\u00a0 With the schedule release<\/strong><\/a>, we can now make a projection.\u00a0 Factors such as Prime-Time games, days of rest, whether the schedule is front or back loaded with tough opponents, will make the difference.<\/p>\n

Patriots Schedule (Home Games Bold)<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Week One<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 @ Seattle, Wednesday, Sept 9th<\/sup>\u00a0 8:15\u00a0 (Opening Night) NBC LOSS<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is actually a break for the Patriots.\u00a0 Yes, they will be playing the team that embarrassed them in the Super Bowl, and they will be facing a top Defense with the Pats newly formed Offensive Line.\u00a0 They won\u2019t get the time to gel as a cohesive unit.\u00a0 I think the Patriots should play their starting unit a lot in the Pre-season so they can get some familiarity with each other.\u00a0 They will have time to work up a game plan, like Las Vegas did last season to the Patriots.\u00a0 It also takes away the short week prep for a long-distance flight to the West Coast.\u00a0 The Patriots get 4 days extra rest before their next game.<\/p>\n

Week Two\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Steelers<\/strong>, Sunday Sept 20th<\/sup>, 1:00\u00a0\u00a0 CBS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Can you call the 2nd<\/sup> game of the season a must win?\u00a0 The Patriots are the better team, and the crowd will be excited for the Opening Home game of the season.\u00a0 Weather should be good too!\u00a0 Don\u2019t sell your tickets to those obnoxious towel-waving fans!<\/p>\n

Week Three\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>@ Jacksonville Sunday, Sept 27th<\/sup> , 1:00 CBS\u00a0 WIN <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Patriots are the better team, and their Defense proved they can win on the road.<\/p>\n

Week Four\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>@Buffalo Sunday, October 4th<\/sup> , 1:00 CBS LOSS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tough to play them so early in the season.\u00a0 SEA and BUF in the 1st<\/sup> 4 weeks is a real challenge for the Patriots.\u00a0 That is 4 playoff teams in the first 4 weeks.\u00a0 Brutal! A 2-2 record at this point is not that bad.<\/p>\n

Week Five\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Las Vegas <\/strong>Sunday, Oct. 11th<\/sup> 1:00 CBS WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Raiders won\u2019t have a month to get ready for Maye and the Patriots.\u00a0 They also faced a Patriots Defense that didn\u2019t have Christian Gonzalez playing.<\/p>\n

Week Six\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New York Jets<\/strong> Sunday, Oct. 18th<\/sup> 1:00 CBS WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

New York is pathetic.\u00a0 I actually feel sorry for anyone who is a Jets fan.<\/p>\n

Week Seven\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>@ Chicago Thursday, Oct 22nd<\/sup>, 8:15 Prime Video LOSS<\/strong><\/p>\n

This will be a tough game for the Patriots on a short week.\u00a0 On the back side, they will get 3 days of extra rest.\u00a0 This should be a classic matchup between QBs Caleb Williams \u00a0and Drake Maye.<\/p>\n

Week Eight\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0@<\/strong>\u00a0Miami Sunday, Nov. 1, 4:25 CBS \u00a0WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

If the Patriots can handle the heat in Florida, they should come away with a victory.<\/p>\n

Week Nine\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Green Bay<\/strong> Sunday, Nov 8th<\/sup>, 4:25 FOX WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think this game is a toss-up, but again, the home field is the difference.<\/p>\n

Week Ten\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong>@ Detroit Sunday, Nov 15th<\/sup>, 9:30AM Munich, Germany \u00a0FOX\u00a0 WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is actually a break for the Patriots playing the Lions in Germany in Week 10.\u00a0 Neutral field and Germany is a strong Base for New England (one of the countries assigned by the league for the Patriots) should make this a home-field advantage.\u00a0 They do get their bye week in week 11.<\/p>\n

Week Eleven\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BYE<\/strong><\/p>\n

Week Twelve\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/strong>@Chargers Sunday Nov 29th<\/sup>, 8:15 (SNF)\u00a0 NBC LOSS<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another West Coast trip.\u00a0 <\/strong>They do have the advantage of the bye week before, but a six-hour flight out and worse, a six-hour flight back will wipe out a rest day against Buffalo. \u00a0I bet this will be a prime destination for New England fans to travel to the West Coast.\u00a0 I went to San Diego several times, and it was a great trip.<\/p>\n

Week Thirteen \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Buffalo <\/strong>Sunday Dec 6, 4:25 CBS WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is a must-win game for the Patriots if they want to win the Division, as we head down the stretch for a playoff spot.<\/p>\n

Week Fourteen\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Minnesota<\/strong> Thursday, December 10th<\/sup>, 8:15 Prime Video WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brian Flores’ Defense gave the Patriots fits in their Joint Practices last Pre-Season.\u00a0\u00a0 However, the QB situation with Kyler Murray taking over for J.J. McCarthy \u00a0is a question that will be answered during the season.\u00a0 Jonathan Greenard is no longer playing for the Vikes.\u00a0 I really liked the Vikes draft led by DT Caleb Banks.<\/p>\n

Week Fifteen\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>@ Kansas City Monday December 21st<\/sup> 8:15 ESPN LOSS<\/strong><\/p>\n

A huge game and marquee matchup.\u00a0 This game will go a long way to determining the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Week Sixteen\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong>@ NY Jets Sunday, December 27th<\/sup>, 1:00 CBS \u00a0WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Jets’ season should be over by the time this game is played.\u00a0 This may be a must-win game for the Patriots if, as expected, they are in contention for a playoff spot.<\/p>\n

Week Seventeen\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Denver <\/strong>TBD\u00a0 WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Week 17 and 18 games are unscheduled for date and time.\u00a0 The NFL plays games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.\u00a0 They choose the most competitive games to broadcast nationally.\u00a0 This should be a big test for the Patriots.\u00a0 Both teams should be fighting for a playoff spot and probably the first overall seed.\u00a0 I give the Patriots the edge because they are playing at home and not at altitude.\u00a0 Denver is mediocre when at sea level.<\/p>\n

Week Eighteen\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Miami TBD WIN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miami should be out of it and just marking time.\u00a0 They hate the cold weather and already have their Tee Times set when they get back to Southern Florida.<\/p>\n

This is a tough schedule that Nick Cattles called brutal.\u00a0 Here are some good and bad points of the schedule.<\/p>\n

Negatives<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Prime Time heavy schedule (5 Prime Time Games, 1 INT game, three 4:25 games with two of those East Coast games moved to the later time slot for TV ratings<\/li>\n
  • Heat in Jacksonville in September<\/li>\n
  • No Team should have to play two Thursday Night Games in the same season<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Positives<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • 3 Mini byes after SEA, CHI and MIN.<\/li>\n
    • The Thursday Night game at home versus MIN is before the MNF game at KC<\/li>\n
    • No game before the SEA trip to west coast<\/li>\n
    • Bye week after the International game<\/li>\n
    • International game is an away game at a neutral field where the Patriots have a strong fanbase<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      That\u2019s 12 Wins and 5 Losses which should be good enough to win the Division<\/p>\n

      Pre-Season Schedule <\/strong><\/p>\n

      Colts <\/strong>Thursday, Aug. 13: \u00a0(7:30 p.m. ET, WBZ-TV)<\/p>\n

      Eagles <\/strong>Saturday, Aug. 22 vs. (7 p.m. ET, WBZ-TV)<\/p>\n

      at Browns <\/strong>Thursday, Aug. 27 (Amazon Prime Video, 8 p.m. ET)<\/h3>\n

      Nightmare Scenario 1 – Front Loaded Schedule <\/strong><\/h3>\n

      The schedule is front -loaded with four playoff teams and just one home game.\u00a0 That could be a problem for the Patriots.\u00a0 The Offensive Line cohesion is my number one concern.\u00a0 They need time playing together as a unit.\u00a0 Integrating Alijah Vera-Tucker in-between second year players Will Campbell and Jared Wilson and building cohesion.\u00a0 We don\u2019t have any idea how Wilson will handle the transition to Center.\u00a0 Wilson played only 1 year of Center at Georgia, and most of his time was played at Guard.\u00a0 His poor PFF grade (49.9) at Left Guard was 71st<\/sup> of 81 Guards in the league.\u00a0 However, PFF has Wilson as a breakout player this season and cites his 79.8 Grade from week 11 through the Super Bowl as the reason why.\u00a0 At Georgia, his 79.9 blocking grade was good and he didn\u2019t allow a sack or QB Hit in 2024 at Center.\u00a0 He only gave up 4 Pressures.<\/p>\n

      Another plus is the fact that the Patriots are not playing two rookies next to each other which was a colossal mistake.\u00a0 The Seahawks took advantage of that.\u00a0 Neither Campbell nor Wilson had a veteran Guard to lean on.<\/p>\n

      I expect the Defense to resume their dominance they showed in the playoff run to the Super Bowl.\u00a0 The dominance, especially against the Houston Texans countered the difficulty that Drake Maye showed playing against the three top defenses he faced in the playoffs.\u00a0 With the addition of Kevin Byard I expect an uptick in turnovers.<\/p>\n

      Nightmare Scenario 2 of 3 Easy Games at the end of the season<\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Having two Home games the last two games of the season.\u00a0 One is Denver, which will be a tough game.\u00a0 The other is the Dolphins.\u00a0 The week before the Broncos the Pats have NYJ \u00a0which will be a short week after a Monday Night Game in KC on the previous Monday Night.<\/p>\n

      Road Warriors<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Can the Patriots come close to duplicating their record of 9 wins on the road?\u00a0 Of their first 11 games, 7 are on the road.<\/p>\n

      Prime Time Games <\/strong><\/p>\n

      I expected the Patriots to have 4 or 5 Prime Time games.\u00a0 The Patriots are a popular team. \u00a0I never expected 5 Prime Time games, three 4:25 games with two of those being east coast, and an International Game. Fans either love them or hate them, but they will watch them.<\/p>\n

      Five primetime games (Mon, Wed., Thurs. x2, Sun) + a game in Germany. – That means two short weeks but also essentially three mini byes, including two longer stretches from Wed. to Sun and Thurs. to Mon. @ KC on Mon. to @ NYJ on Sunday with Christmas in between is not ideal, but at least it’s a familiar opponent on the back end.<\/p>\n

      Team Travel<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Now that we know the Patriots schedule and that they are playing a week 10 game in Munich, we can calculate how many miles the team will travel.\u00a0 They will travel 27,000 miles with two trips to the west coast, which is 5th<\/sup> most in the league.<\/p>\n

      UDFA Guaranteed Money <\/strong><\/h3>\n

      Guaranteed base salary is only collected if player is cut and doesn’t play. The $247,500 figure represents the 2026 full-season rate for the practice squad.\u00a0 What the Patriots are saying to Montgomery and Canada is that they are guaranteed at least a spot on the Practice Squad. Whether it is with the Patriots or another team.\u00a0 Dixon\u2019s guarantee is nearly for the entire season on the Practice Squad so that isa similar deal of guaranteeing a spot on the Practice Squad for the season.\u00a0 These figures are reported from the NFLPA and were compiled by Ben Volin.<\/p>\n

      RB Myles Montgomery – $272,500 ($247, 500 base, $25k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      CB Channing Canada – $267,500 ($247,500 base, $20k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      WR Kyle Dixon \u2013 $252,500 ($235,000 base, $17.5k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      TE Tanner Arkin \u2013 $162,500 ($145k base, $17.5k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      OL Jake Rizy – $85,000 ($75k base, $10k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      WR Cameron Dorner – $40,000 ($30k base, $10k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      WR Nick DeGennaro – $35,000 ( $25k base, $10k Signing Bonus)<\/p>\n

      OL Jon\u2019Darius Morgan – $10k Signing Bonus<\/p>\n

      CB Kenneth Harris – $7.5k Signing Bonus<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Projecting the Patriots’ 2024 season, this article breaks down their schedule, offers a 12-5 win total, and reveals UDFA guaranteed bonuses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":65595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10],"tags":[46,23467,23984,610,23269,277,375,23466,478,276,45,656,47,1437,23931,8,23966,24662,23916,374,24664,24663,24661,24665,24660],"class_list":["post-66670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-news","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-caleb-williams","tag-chargers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-christian-gonzalez","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-drake-maye","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl-schedule","tag-offensive-line","tag-patriots","tag-practice-squad","tag-pre-season-schedule","tag-prime-time-games","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-signing-bonus","tag-team-travel","tag-udfa-bonuses","tag-warren-sharp","tag-win-projection"],"yoast_head":"\nMORSE: 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