{"id":64175,"date":"2026-01-02T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T10:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=64175"},"modified":"2026-01-01T20:10:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T01:10:23","slug":"patriots-dolphins-key-matchups-the-1-seed-is-still-a-possibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2026\/01\/02\/patriots-dolphins-key-matchups-the-1-seed-is-still-a-possibility\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots – Dolphins Key Matchups, The #1 Seed Is Still A Possibility"},"content":{"rendered":"

We hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Here’s to a happy, healthy 2026.<\/p>\n

The Patriots have locked up the AFC East and still have an outside shot at the #1 overall seed and a Wild Card Weekend bye if they beat Miami and the Chargers beat Denver.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, that seems remote now as the Chargers, with nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding, have decided to rest QB Justin Herbert and several banged-up starters.<\/span><\/p>\n

FOX will broadcast this week’s game and can be seen locally in Boston on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Joe Davis will handle play-by-play duties with Greg Olsen as the color analyst. Pam Oliver will work from the sidelines.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Patriots want to at least clinch the #2 seed with a victory over Miami, which is playing much better after a disastrous 1-6 start. They\u2019ve benched Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers, who has played well thus far.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami still has De\u2019Von Archane, who is having a monster year and who is a threat every time he gets his hands on the ball.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, let’s quickly get to the matchups.<\/span><\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs. Dolphins Front Seven <\/b>\u2014<\/b> Edge New England<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

The Patriots’ running game has definitely shown signs of life in the past five weeks, averaging 141.2 yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson has rounded back into form and is playing very well. TreVeyon Henderson has turned it on and has become a legitimate threat for a big play every time he touches the ball.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, since Miami\u2019s bye week, they\u2019ve allowed only 85.2 yards per game on the ground in the past five weeks. That has allowed them to hang tough in their games, except for the Cincinnati game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to keep things balanced and try to keep Miami guessing. I expect Stevenson, Henderson, and D\u2019Ernest Johnson will see plenty of reps here as they try to wear down Miami in the Northeast cold.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs. Dolphins Secondary <\/b>\u2014<\/b> Edge New England<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

The Patriots’ passing game ranks #3 in yards gained but 22nd in passes thrown. What does that mean? It means Drake Maye has been darn efficient throwing the ball. Maye leads the league or is in the top five of most passing categories in the NFL in 2025, including completion percentage (71.7), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (112.9).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He\u2019s been using the entire field and spreading the ball around.\u00a0 Expect more of that on Sunday, with Stefon Diggs needing just 30 yards for a 1,000-yard season, Hunter Henry, and Kyle Williams, with the good news that Kayshon Boutte was a full participant, meaning he should play on Sunday, as well as Demario Douglas, who has been limited with a hamstring.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Miami\u2019s pass rush will have to get home and affect the timing for Maye or the Patriots should find plenty of success throwing the ball. S Minkah Fitzpatrick and LB Jordyn Brooks haven\u2019t practiced this week due to injuries.<\/span><\/p>\n

Next up is the Dolphins\u2019 offense.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolphins RBs vs. NE Front Seven <\/b>\u2014<\/b> Edge Miami<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

The Patriots’ run defense has been steadily sliding down the league rankings. Currently, they\u2019re ranked #8, allowing 104.1 yards per game. And the front seven is really banged up. LB Harold Landry – Knee, LB Robert Spillane – Ankle, and DL Khyiris Tonga – Foot, were all missing from practice again. Milton Williams has not yet been activated from IR.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And Miami\u2019s running game is the team’s strength. De\u2019Von Archane is #1 in the league, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He leads the league in explosive runs. Miami runs the ball at a 50 percent rate and runs a ton of play-action off the running game.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Achane is dealing with a shoulder injury and hasn\u2019t practiced this week. It will be interesting to see if he can suit up on Sunday. He\u2019s the guy who can keep this game interesting.\u00a0 Not only is he Miami\u2019s leading rusher with 1,350 yards, but is also their leading receiver with 67 catches, and is second with 488 yards receiving. He accounts for 36 percent of Miami\u2019s total offense in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dolphins WRs vs. NE Secondary <\/b>\u2014<\/b> Edge New England<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

The Dolphins have Jaylen Waddle, who has 910 yards receiving this season. With 90 yards on Sunday, he\u2019d break the 1,000-yard barrier this season. With Achane banged up, Quinn Ewers may also have to do without TE Darren Waller, who hasn\u2019t practiced this week with a groin injury.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ewers has played well in his starts thus far, but he has Malik Washington and Theo Wease, who scored on a 63-yard touchdown last week against the Bucs. The Patriots\u2019 secondary should match up well against this group, especially if Achane and Waller are missing.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pass rush, however, is missing Landry, and this could play a role if they can\u2019t get home with their pressure. Perhaps getting Williams back this week would help that.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Special Teams <\/b>\u2014<\/b>\u00a0 <\/b>Edge Miami<\/span><\/i><\/h3>\n

The Patriots’ special teams is in need of a big game soon. The return game, especially with PR Marcus Jones, has been held in check. And with former Patriot punter Jake Bailey returning to Foxboro, that may be difficult.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Dolphins have a slight advantage in kick return average, and Bailey\u2019s net punting average is two yards better than Bryce Barringer\u2019s\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prediction:\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n

The Patriots should take care of business on Sunday.\u00a0 Miami is just 2-5 on the road, and they are a notoriously poor cold-weather team. The game plan for New England is simple: start fast, get out to a good lead, and get the Dolphins thinking about tee times and Caribbean vacations by halftime.<\/span><\/p>\n

They don\u2019t want to let the Dolphins hang around and then play loose with house money, throw the kitchen sink at them with nothing to lose.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mike Vrabel knows what is still at stake (#1 seed). The Patriots won\u2019t take the Dolphins lightly, and Drake Maye should have another big day.<\/span><\/p>\n

Patriots 31-20<\/b><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter @SteveB7SFG or email me at<\/span><\/i> stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/span><\/i><\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our<\/span><\/i>\u00a0 <\/span>PatsFans.com<\/span><\/a> Patriots No Huddle <\/span><\/i><\/a>podcasts on Apple and YouTube as Derek Havens, Mike D\u2019Abate, and I discuss the latest Patriots news and game analysis<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Maye leads the league in completion percentage (71.7), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (112.9) in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":62643,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23757,23295,23494,11,274,552,10],"tags":[254,23619,23466,162,22241,45,664,44,746,23981,22588,319,23738,2258],"class_list":["post-64175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-patriots-season","category-miami-dolphins","category-new-england-patriots","category-patriots-commentary","category-patriots-film-room","category-patriots-injuries","category-patriots-news","tag-afc-east","tag-devon-achane","tag-drake-maye","tag-injuries","tag-justin-herbert","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-mike-vrabel","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-playoffs","tag-quinn-ewers","tag-rhamondre-stevenson","tag-special-teams","tag-treveyon-henderson","tag-tua-tagovailoa"],"yoast_head":"\nPatriots 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