{"id":60365,"date":"2025-05-20T09:45:50","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T13:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=60365"},"modified":"2025-05-20T09:45:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T13:45:50","slug":"morse-why-the-patriots-wont-win-11-games-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2025\/05\/20\/morse-why-the-patriots-wont-win-11-games-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: Why the Patriots Won’t Win 11 Games in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why the Patriots Won\u2019t Win 11 Games <\/strong><\/h3>\n

Offense <\/strong><\/h4>\n

Quarterback <\/strong><\/p>\n

2nd<\/sup> Year QB \u2013 Can Drake Maye make the jump in his 2nd<\/sup> year to be a quality NFL QB?\u00a0 Does Maye regress and doesn\u2019t improve his high turnover rate?\u00a0 A lot is being put on Maye\u2019s plate.\u00a0 He is learning his 2nd<\/sup> offensive playbook in two years, under the tutelage of a demanding Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels.\u00a0 McDaniels requires the QB to make a lot of pre-snap reads and then adjust on the fly.\u00a0 The QB and WRs need to be on the same page, seeing the same thing, and making the same adjustment.\u00a0 Drake Maye was surrounded by one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL as a rookie because the Offensive Line was a sieve and couldn\u2019t protect him. Many of the Interceptions were not his fault.\u00a0 He also fumbled quite a few times.\u00a0 If they are going to call QB runs, Run\/Pass Options (RPO) or QB sneaks, can he be a reliable runner?<\/p>\n

Offensive Line<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) lists the Patriots as one of 5 teams that have significantly upgraded their Offensive lines this off season. \u201cNew England was determined to improve that situation this offseason. The front office focused on the offensive line at the beginning of free agency by signing tackle\u00a0Morgan Moses, center\u00a0Garrett Bradbury\u00a0and guard\u00a0Wes Schweitzer.<\/p>\n

Moses was an above-average tackle from 2020 to 2023, with PFF overall grades of 78.6 or better during three of those four seasons. However, the 34-year-old lineman\u2019s play fell off precipitously in 2024 on his way to a 63.3 PFF overall grade for the\u00a0Jets. New England will hope that Moses has a few more good years left of protecting the edge during the beginning of Maye\u2019s career.<\/p>\n

Garrett Bradbury and third-round draft pick Jared Wilson will likely compete for the starting center job in 2025. Bradbury has had a bit of a disappointing career after the Vikings selected him in the first round in 2019, whereas Wilson may be one of the steals of this year\u2019s draft as the top center on\u00a0PFF’s big board.<\/p>\n

The Patriots also picked up PFF\u2019s top offensive tackle in the draft, selecting\u00a0Will Campbell\u00a0with the fourth-overall pick. While most of the pre-draft conversation was about the former LSU Tiger\u2019s arm length, he held up just fine at tackle in the SEC, ranking in the 95th percentile of FBS tackles in PFF pass-blocking grade on true pass sets since 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/p>\n
(PHOTO: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

However, Campbell is a rookie, and the best rookie Left Tackle last season was the Saints Taliese Fuaga as the #48 ranked Tackle overall.\u00a0 \u00a0His PFF Rating was 65.7.\u00a0 There were two other rookies ranked higher, but both played Right Tackle.\u00a0 Expect Campbell to have some issues with speed rushers.\u00a0 All rookies do have to make adjustments to the speed of the NFL.<\/p>\n

We have no idea who will be playing Left Guard for the Patriots.\u00a0 Will Layden Robinson beat out Cole Strange, Wes Schweitzer, Sidy Sow, and possibly Jared Wilson?\u00a0 Robinson was ranked 128th among offensive guards by Pro Football Focus. \u00a0\u00a0His Blocking grade was 43.6.\u00a0 Replacing Robinson could be easy.\u00a0 I have heard that Wes Schweitzer has been splitting 1st<\/sup> team reps in the OTAs.\u00a0 Schweitzer played the most in 2020 for Washington with over 1,000 snaps.\u00a0 His PFF Rating was 69.0 that year.\u00a0 Last season with the Jets he played in just 1 play.<\/p>\n

There is uncertainty at LG and you are starting a rookie at Left Tackle. What could go wrong?<\/p>\n

Garrett Bradbury is an upgrade over David Andrews and Ben Brown.\u00a0 Brown was signed off the Raiders Practice Squad last year and had a miserable season.\u00a0 He did his best but was ranked 54th<\/sup> amongst all Centers in the league.\u00a0 To make things worse, the Patriots Cole Strange and Nick Leverett were ranked worse than Brown. \u00a0Bradbury was great against the run with a 70.7 Run Blocking grade from PFF, but his Pass Blocking was awful with a 48.2 grade.\u00a0 Bradbury gave up 38 QB Pressures and 4 Sacks in 2024.\u00a0 He will be a big improvement but may be pushed by Draft Pick Jared Wilson.<\/p>\n

Morgan Moses is 34 years old.\u00a0 The four years prior to 2024 he was a very good Right Tackle.\u00a0 His ratings were 77.6, 78.1, 71 and 80. However, his play went down last year with a 63.3 rating and an overall blocking ranking of 64 amongst all Tackles.\u00a0 Is he on the downslope of his career?\u00a0 Caeden Wallace had a wasted year last year.\u00a0 He was injured and wasted his time by trying to play Left Tackle (which the Patriots quickly found out that he couldn\u2019t).\u00a0 He is expected to be the backup and eventually replace Moses at Right Tackle.<\/p>\n

Tight End <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Patriots got great seasons out of their pair of 31-year-old veteran TEs.\u00a0 Both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper came into the league together in 2016.\u00a0 Henry tied for 1st<\/sup> in receptions with 66 and led the team in receiving yards with 674 yards.\u00a0 Austin Hooper had 45 receptions good for 4th<\/sup> on the team for 474 yards.\u00a0 Can they expect that again in 2025. I don\u2019t think so.\u00a0 The team can\u2019t go into 2025 with two 32-year-old TEs.\u00a0 The older a player is, the more likely he is to get hurt.\u00a0 I am predicting that Hooper will not make the team (as long as Henry is healthy).\u00a0 The Patriots have a pretty good UDFA TE in CJ Dipre.\u00a0 They also have another UDFA FB that can play TE in Brock Lampe.<\/p>\n

Wide Receiver <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Patriots had one of the worst receiving corps in the league last year.\u00a0 Pop Douglas was tied for the team lead with 66 receptions.\u00a0 In my opinion Douglas was badly misused by Alex Van Pelt, and it wasn\u2019t until the media questioned the coach on Douglas\u2019 usage did Douglas start to become a part of the regular offense.\u00a0 Ja\u2019Lynn Polk was flat out awful, as was Javon Baker.\u00a0 What a disastrous trade when they gave up Ladd McConkey for this pair of misfits.\u00a0 Both are on the bubble for making this year\u2019s team.\u00a0 Their PFF Rankings were 221 and 191 respectively out of 223 receivers in the league.<\/p>\n

Newcomer Mack Hollins has never been a full-time starter in the league, although he started 13 times last season for the Bills.\u00a0 I like his size and experience.\u00a0 They signed Stephon Diggs, coming off of ACL surgery, which knocked him out of last season.\u00a0 When healthy, Diggs was a premier player. \u00a0He probably won\u2019t be ready or back to something near his former self until mid-season.\u00a0 The Patriots drafted an exciting WR, Kyle Williams, from Washington State.\u00a0 He has the speed and quickness for the X position to get open with separation and to get deep, especially off of press man coverage.\u00a0 However, Williams hasn\u2019t played a down in the NFL and proven that he can do those things.<\/p>\n

Kendrick Bourne had his best year of his career playing for Josh McDaniels.\u00a0 He is now a year and half removed from his ACL injury, which is just about the time it takes to get back to full playing strength.\u00a0 It\u2019s make or break for him this year.\u00a0 He could start, he could be traded or cut.\u00a0 Kayshon Boutte made a big improvement in his sophomore season, a far cry from his rookie season.\u00a0 Boutte had 43 receptions for 589 yards and a 13.7 YPC, and 3 TDs which both led the team. \u00a0There were rumors before the draft that Boutte was available for trade, which makes his status with the team questionable.<\/p>\n

Two UDFAs are in the mix in Efton Chism and Jeremiah Webb as is Practice Squad player John Jiles.\u00a0 All three looked god in shorts at the Rookie Camp, but how they play against NFL players come July in camp will show if they can play or not.<\/p>\n

Running Back<\/strong><\/p>\n

Will Rhamondre Stevenson still have the fumbling problem from last season?\u00a0 If so, I don\u2019t think he is long for this team.\u00a0 Mike Vrabel will not put up with that like Jerod Mayo did.<\/p>\n

Defense<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Milton Williams was the big acquisition in Free Agency.\u00a0 The Patriots saw the value in the Defensive Free Agents and concentrated on improving that unit.<\/p>\n

Defensive Line <\/strong><\/p>\n

Milton Williams was the #1 DT in getting pressure on the QB according to PFF with a 91.7 Pass Rush Grade.\u00a0 That was better than KC All-Pro Chris Jones.\u00a0 However, his run-stopping grade was 41, which knocked him down to #14 overall.\u00a0 Also, Williams only played on 40% of the Defensive snaps for the vaunted Eagles Defense.<\/p>\n

The return of Christian Barmore absolutely will help.\u00a0 Barmore let the media know this week that he has received full clearance to conduct football activities, and he is planning on being in the lineup for week 1.\u00a0 The combination of Barmore and Williams could be very dynamic.\u00a0 In 2023, Barmore was the #9 overall DT according to PFF with an 85.8 rating.\u00a0 He was #7 in Pass Rush grade with an 84.9 rating.\u00a0 They should wreak havoc on opposing QBs, making them very uncomfortable.\u00a0 My question is, can they consistently stop the run?<\/p>\n

Linebacker <\/strong><\/p>\n

I will be honest, I didn\u2019t know a lot about Robert Spillane because he played out West and for the Raiders, who were not a contending team.\u00a0 He is a tackling machine, having over 300 tackles in the last two years.\u00a0 Last season, his run-stopping grade was 85.4, 2nd behind Bobby Wagner.\u00a0 In 2023, he had 148 tackles, and in 2024, he added 158.\u00a0 He is on the smaller side at 6\u20191″, 229 pounds.\u00a0 He is not fast, running a 4.77 40-yard dash.\u00a0 In pass coverage, he is below average and can get picked on by Offenses. \u00a0Based on how this Defense is being structured, Spillane is going to be counted on to make a lot of tackles.\u00a0 The New Defense is smaller across the front seven, and I am concerned about how they will hold up against a team that wants to run the ball like Buffalo and Baltimore.<\/p>\n

Secondary\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

I never want to see Kyle Dugger at Free Safety again. \u00a0He can\u2019t play the position and doesn\u2019t have the speed or the instincts to play there.\u00a0 The Patriots brought in Marcus Epps from the Raiders, but he is recovering from an ACL injury last season. They drafted Craig Woodson, an experienced Free Safety who can play multiple positions in the backfield.\u00a0 However, he was considered a reach as an early 4th-round pick.\u00a0 We shall see in Training Camp.\u00a0 I would like to see Marte Mapu and Kyle Dugger move to the Linebacker \/ Big Nickel position.\u00a0 Many teams start with three wideouts, and teams counter with 5 DBs.\u00a0 Leave Peppers at Strong Safety and out Duggers at the Big Nickel.\u00a0 Duggers has trouble in coverage and can get exposed no matter where he plays.<\/p>\n

Carlton Davis is a good signing and should lock down the Right CB spot opposite of budding star Christian Gonzalez.\u00a0 But where is the depth?\u00a0 Will Alex Austin emerge as a suitable backup, because Carlton Davis has never played a full season in his 7-year NFL career?\u00a0 He has only played 12, 13 and 13 games in the last three years.<\/p>\n

There is no backup for Marcus Jones in the slot corner position.<\/p>\n

Special Teams<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A rookie kicker, Andres Borregales, with some competition from John Parker-Romo, a holdover from the Practice Squad last year.\u00a0 They will have an unproven rookie long-snapper, and neither the long-snapper nor the kicker has played in the wild northeast weather.<\/p>\n

Coaching Staff <\/strong><\/p>\n

This is a much better, more experienced coaching staff than the Patriots had last season. \u00a0Josh McDaniels is a well-regarded Offensive Coordinator.\u00a0 Doug Marrone is a veteran Offensive Line coach and is another highly regarded coach.\u00a0 Two other coaches were Offensive Coordinators, and one was an Interim Head Coach.<\/p>\n

On the Defensive side, Terrell Williams has been dealing with a Health scare but has been participating in team meetings and working with his coaching staff.\u00a0 He is another coach who is admired throughout the league, but he has never been a Defensive Coordinator.\u00a0 Will this health issue prevent Williams from joining the team?<\/p>\n

\"Drake<\/p>\n
(PHOTO: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images)<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Oddsmakers have Patriots Favored to Win in 11 Games<\/strong><\/h3>\n

I didn\u2019t know this fact when making my prediction of 11 wins.\u00a0 Curious we are looking at the schedule the same.\u00a0 In two games, they are 8-point Underdogs, at Buffalo and at Baltimore.\u00a0 Last season, the Patriots were not favored in any of their games.\u00a0 To start the season, they have a relatively easy schedule with 3 of the first 4 games at home. \u00a0The lone loss in the 1st<\/sup> four games is in the heat of South Florida in week 2.<\/p>\n

UDFA Lan Larison Decided to Sign with Patriots Before Draft Was Complete\u00a0 <\/strong><\/h3>\n

According to Sean T. McQuire of NESN, he spoke with UC Davis Head Coach Tim Plough, and he stated that Lan Larison called him before the Draft was over and told him he was signing with the Patriots.\u00a0 \u201cI thought he was calling me because he got drafted,\u201d Plough told NESN.\u00a0 Larison stated that the reason he decided to sign with New England was because Head Coach Mike Vrabel had called him directly and asked if he would be interested in joining the Pats as a UDFA.\u00a0 It didn\u2019t hurt that the Patriots offered him a significant guaranteed salary and signing bonus.<\/p>\n

You Need To Watch \u201cForged In Patriots\u201d <\/strong><\/p>\n

This video was produced by Patriots.com staff and is 1 hour and 13 minutes long.\u00a0 It is a fascinating view behind the scenes of Vrabel taking over as Head Coach, building the coaching staff, Free Agency, College scouting, and ultimately the draft.\u00a0 What I took away was how seamlessly Mike Vrabel, Eliot Wolf, and Ryan Cowden worked together, collaborated, and came away with the same conclusion.\u00a0 Wolf was clearly in charge of the Draft, but Vrabel asked both Wolf and Cowden\u2019s opinions, and they agreed on the course of action.\u00a0 As Director of College Scouting, you could see Cam Williams at work.\u00a0 I think he will be missed, but this is an opportunity for someone like Matt Evans for a promotion.\u00a0 The former NH Wildcat Linebacker is a National Scout and former Southeast Area scout.\u00a0 He was very animated about the Patriots’ selection of Jared Wilson.\u00a0 An interesting quote by Ryan Cowden before the Patriots made their 1st<\/sup> selection in Round 3.\u00a0 Cowden said pick #69 is a \u201cTrust your board and process pick.\u201d \u00a0\u00a0Another interesting thing is that all the scouts were in attendance, kind of a reward for all the work they have done the past year.\u00a0 Eliot Wolf, just as the draft was starting, stood and thanked all the scouting staff for the work they accomplished coming into this day.<\/p>\n

\"Christian<\/p>\n
(PHOTO: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports)<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Christian Gonzalez Omitted from PFF Top Players under 25 Years Old<\/strong><\/h3>\n

What a sin it is to leave Gonzalez, who will turn 23 in June, off the list of 25 top players under 25.\u00a0 There are 5 DB\u2019s on the list.\u00a0 Gonzalez, with just 20 starts in the NFL after missing all but the first 4 games of his rookie season, Gozalez was selected as 2nd<\/sup> Team All-Pro last year as was Trent McDuffie.\u00a0 Derek Stingley was selected 1st<\/sup> Team All-Pro.\u00a0 However, Chris Beneford of Buffalo and Cooper DeJean (S) of the Eagles were not All-Pros.\u00a0 Further, the Patriots played Man Defense at the 2nd<\/sup> highest rate (45.3%) last season per Patriots.com Evan Lazar. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Last season Gonzalez faced a gauntlet of top-rated Wide Receivers.\u00a0 These are the players he faced:<\/p>\n

Jamar Chase<\/p>\n

DK Metcalf<\/p>\n

Brandon Aiyuk<\/p>\n

Tyreek Hill \/ Jaylen Waddle (2x)<\/p>\n

Nico Collins \/ Stefon Diggs<\/p>\n

Brian Thomas<\/p>\n

Garrett Wilson (2x)<\/p>\n

Calvin Ridley<\/p>\n

DJ Moore<\/p>\n

Puka Nacua<\/p>\n

Marvin Harrison<\/p>\n

Fourteen of these wideouts reached the 1,000-yard mark for the season.\u00a0 Gonzalez absolutely ate Marvin Harrison\u2019s lunch against Arizona and dominated him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye make the jump in his 2nd year to be a quality NFL QB?\u00a0 Does Maye regress and doesn\u2019t improve his high turnover rate?\u00a0 A lot is being put on Maye\u2019s plate.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":55473,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-news"],"yoast_head":"\nMORSE: Why the Patriots Won't Win 11 Games in 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Can New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye make the jump in his 2nd year to be a quality NFL QB?\u00a0 Does Maye regress and doesn\u2019t improve his high turnover rate?\u00a0 A lot is being put on Maye\u2019s plate.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2025\/05\/20\/morse-why-the-patriots-wont-win-11-games-in-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MORSE: Why the Patriots Won't Win 11 Games in 2025 | PatsFans.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Can New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye make the jump in his 2nd year to be a quality NFL QB?\u00a0 Does Maye regress and doesn\u2019t improve his high turnover rate?\u00a0 A lot is being put on Maye\u2019s plate.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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