{"id":50349,"date":"2023-12-29T12:30:49","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T17:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=50349"},"modified":"2023-12-29T12:30:49","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T17:30:49","slug":"morse-patriots-week-17-preview-buffalo-bills","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2023\/12\/29\/morse-patriots-week-17-preview-buffalo-bills\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: Patriots Week 17 Preview: Buffalo Bills"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bills sit at 9-6 and are in great position to make the playoffs.\u00a0 They have won three games in a row against some impressive opponents.\u00a0 The Bills won at Kansas City, beat the Cowboys at home and then went out to LA and beat the Chargers.\u00a0 They are peaking at the right time and a far cry from the team that lost to the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

The Patriots are a different team now as well.\u00a0 Bailey Zappe has given the team some stability at QB while the Patriots Defense has legitimately ascended to one of the best in the league.\u00a0 This was Bill Belichicks plan all along, establish a dominant Defense that would keep the team in games while the Offense matures.\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Unfortunately, that plan has been delayed by the poor play of the Offensive line due to the numerous injuries.\u00a0 Last week\u2019s starting Offensive line combination was the 8th<\/sup> different starting line of the season.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t until the coaches inserted rookie Atonio Mafi and Trent Brown back into the lineup could the team perform.\u00a0 \u00a0The line play cost them a good young Quarterback in Mac Jones who is now broken and may never recover from this mismanagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nOFFENSE<\/strong><\/td>\n3 WR 1TE<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QB<\/td>\nJosh Allen<\/td>\nKyle Allen<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RB<\/td>\nJames Cook<\/td>\nLatavius Murray<\/td>\nTy Johnson Q<\/td>\nDamien Harris IR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nStefon Diggs<\/td>\nTrent Sherfield<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nGabe Davis<\/td>\nDeonte Harty<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nKhalil Shakir<\/td>\nJustin Shorter IR<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TE<\/td>\nDalton Kincaid<\/td>\nDawson Knox<\/td>\nQuintin Morris<\/td>\nZach Davidson IR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FB<\/td>\nReggie Gilliam<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LT<\/td>\nDion Dawkins<\/td>\nRyan Van Demark<\/td>\nTommy Doyle\u00a0IR<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LG<\/td>\nDavid\u00a0Edwards<\/td>\nConnor McGovern<\/td>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nMitch Morse<\/td>\nRyan Bates<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RG<\/td>\nO’Cyrus Torrence<\/td>\nGermain Ifedi<\/td>\n<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RT<\/td>\nSpencer Brown<\/td>\nAlec\u00a0Anderson<\/td>\n<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the Sports Illustrated QB Rankings Josh Allen is ranked 3rd<\/sup>.\u00a0 NFL.com has Allen ranked 4th<\/sup> with the following stats: 15 games, 340 of 511 for 66.5 Completion %, 3,778 pass yds, 7.4 ypa, 27 pass TD, 15 INT, 413 rush yds, 13 rush TD, and 4 fumbles.\u00a0 Nick Shook writes \u201cYou\u2019re going to want me to ding Allen for the Interceptions he threw trusting his arm too much and attempting a pass that would be impossible for most QBs on Earth.\u00a0 I won\u2019t do that, though, because Allen followed a similar route when he threw a Touchdown pass to Gabe Davis.\u00a0 The one difference: He targeted the outer third on the pass to Davis instead of attempting to throw it down the middle of the field. This is part of what Bills fans sign up for when Allen is their quarterback, and in Week 16, it worked out. If it continues to work, the Bills will find themselves at the end of a table they\u2019ve run right to the playoffs.\u201d\u00a0 Which QB will show up on Sunday?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

James Cook has had a breakout sophomore season.\u00a0 We all knew that he could catch coming out of Georgia. \u00a0\u00a0Though 15 games he has 208 carries for 1,038 yards rushing and a 5.0 average, 2 TDs and 3 Fumbles.\u00a0 Receiving he has 40 catches on 47 targets for 433 yards, (10.8 avg) 4 TDs.\u00a0 \u00a0Cook is the man since Damien Harris went on IR.\u00a0 Latavious Murray is the backup with 78 carries for 300 yards (3.9 Avg), and 4 TDs.\u00a0 He is a bigger back and gets the short yardage touches.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Stephon Diggs is a generational talent and a Prima Donna.\u00a0 He sulks when he doesn\u2019t get his touches. This season he has 95 catches on 145 targets for 1,070 yards (11.1 avg), and 8 TDs.\u00a0 Gabe Davis has been a disappointment with 43 catches on 75 targets for 725 yards, (16.9 Avg) 7 TDs.\u00a0 He is closer to a 50\/50 guy when targeted and is losing playing time to Khalil Shakir.\u00a0 The 2022 5th<\/sup> round (#148) pick out of Boise State, has outplayed Davis in the second half of the season.\u00a0 Shakir\u2019s stats are 29 catches on 35 targets, for 467 yards, (16.1 Avg), and 2 TDs.\u00a0 If you have read my articles, you know that I love Deonte Harty from Assumption University.\u00a0 The diminutive (5\u20196\u201d, 170 lbs) wideout is a former All-Pro and Pro Bowl Punt Return Specialist (2019).\u00a0 He set numerous NCAA Division II records at Assumptions for Punt and Kick Returns.\u00a0 I\u2019ll sum it up quickly. He holds the NCAA record (regardless of division) as college football’s all-time leader for combined touchdown returns (14).\u00a0 I had the pleasure of watching him for 4 years at Assumption and every time he touched the ball, he was likely taking it to the house.<\/p>\n

The Bills drafted a great young Tight End in Dalton Kincaid.\u00a0 The 2023 1st<\/sup> round pick (#23) has had a terrific rookie season with 62 catches on 76 targets for 502 yards (8.1 avg), and 2 TDs.\u00a0 \u00a0Dawson Knox has been very serviceable at TE for years.\u00a0 He has 20 catches on 33 targets for 164, (8.1 avg), and 1 TD.<\/p>\n

The Offensive Line is anchored by Left Tackle Dion Dawkins.\u00a0 The two-time Pro Bowler was a 2017 2nd<\/sup> round (#63) selection out of Temple.\u00a0 The 6\u20195\u201d 320lb behemoth is 29 in his 7th<\/sup> year.\u00a0 Next to him at LG has been Connor McGovern who has started all 15 games coming into Sunday.\u00a0 ESPN has David Edwards listed as the starter.\u00a0 Edwards is a 2019 5th<\/sup> Round selection (#169) originally taken by Los Angelas Rams. He has not started one game this year.\u00a0 McGovern does not appear on the injury report.\u00a0 The 2019 3rd<\/sup> round (#90) selection was a Cowboys selection who signed as a Free Agent with Buffalo this year.\u00a0 The Guard out of Penn State is 6\u20195\u201d 318 lbs. and has started all 15 games. \u00a0\u00a0Center is veteran Mitch Morse. \u00a0The 6\u20196 (very tall for the position) 315 lb. Center from Missouri was a 2015 pick by Kansas City in the 2nd<\/sup> Rond (#49).\u00a0 He was signed away from KC in 2019 as a Free Agent.\u00a0 Morse is old for an O-lineman at age 31.\u00a0 He was selected to the Pro Bowl for the first-time last season.\u00a0 \u00a0Right Guard O\u2019Cyrus Torrence out of Florida. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The 2023 2nd<\/sup> round (#59) selection played three years at Louisiana-Lafayette before finishing his college career at Florida.\u00a0 He was selected as 1st<\/sup> team all-conference at both schools.\u00a0 Guard is a weakness of the Bills with McGovern ranked # 44 and Torrence #66 by Pro Football Focus.\u00a0 Compare this to Cole Strange (#26) and Sidy Sow (#36).\u00a0 Torrence \u2018s rating isn\u2019t even starter quality since there are only 64 starters in the league.\u00a0 Right Tackle has Spencer Brown manning the position.\u00a0 He is a large man at 6\u20198, 315 lbs.\u00a0 The 2021 3rd<\/sup> round pick (#93) played for Northern Iowa.\u00a0 He has started all 15 games this year and 39 of 42 games in his career. \u00a0Brown has a 69.2 rating and is ranked #33 among tackles. \u00a0Buffalo has had the same starting 5 on the line for every game this season and they have played 96% of the snaps. \u00a0Having that consistency along the offensive line goes a long way.\u00a0 Consequently, the Patriots just used their 8th<\/sup> different starting combination.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nDEFENSE<\/strong><\/td>\nBase 4-3 D<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LDE<\/td>\nGreg Rousseau<\/td>\nAJ Epenesa\u00a0Q<\/td>\nKingsley Jonathan<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LDT<\/td>\nEd\u00a0Oliver<\/td>\nPoona\u00a0Ford<\/td>\nJordan Phillips\u00a0IR<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RDT<\/td>\nTim Settle<\/td>\nLinval\u00a0Joseph<\/td>\nDaQuan\u00a0Jones IR<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RDE<\/td>\nVon\u00a0Miller<\/td>\nLeonard Floyd<\/td>\nShaq Lawson<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WLB<\/td>\nTyrel Dodson<\/td>\nTyler Matakevich<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MLB<\/td>\nTerrel\u00a0Bernard Q<\/td>\nBaylon Spector<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLB<\/td>\nDorian\u00a0Williams<\/td>\nMatt Milano\u00a0IR<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LCB<\/td>\nTaron\u00a0Johnson<\/td>\nDane\u00a0Jackson<\/td>\nCam\u00a0Lewis<\/td>\nTre’Davious\u00a0White IR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nJordan\u00a0Poyer<\/td>\nTaylor\u00a0Rapp<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FS<\/td>\nMicah\u00a0Hyde Q<\/td>\nDamar Hamlin\u00a0Q<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RCB<\/td>\nRasul\u00a0Douglas<\/td>\nChristian Benford<\/td>\nKaiir Elam<\/td>\nSiran Neal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bills Defense can put pressure on the QB.\u00a0 Their Pass Rush Win Rate as a team is ranked 4th<\/sup> per ESPN.\u00a0 The Defense starts with RDE Von Miller.\u00a0 The 2011 1st<\/sup> round pick #2 overall was taken by Denver where he played 11 seasons.\u00a0 He was traded in 2021 and then signed as a Free Agent by Buffalo in 2022.\u00a0 He is 34 and not the player he once was but is still a dominant edge player.\u00a0 The highly decorated player was a two-time Super Bowl champ and one of the few Defensive Players to be selected Super Bowl MVP.\u00a0 He has been 1st<\/sup> team All-Pro 3 times and 2nd<\/sup> team 4 times. \u00a0\u00a0Let\u2019s add 8-time Pro Bowl selections to that list. \u00a0Can the future Hall of Famer still play.\u00a0 In 11 games he has no sacks and just 3 tackles!\u00a0 \u00a0LDE\u2019s Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa can get after the QB too.\u00a0 Rousseau has 5 sacks, Epenesa has 6.5, Leonard Floyd has 10.5 sacks, and Ed Oliver 8.5 from the inside. \u00a0\u00a0Tim Settle also puts pressure on the QB by pushing the pocket and taking up space.<\/p>\n

Inside Linebacker Terrell Bernard leads the team in tackles with 124 tackles. Bernard was a 2022 3rd<\/sup> round (#89) pick out of Baylor.\u00a0 Tyrel Dodson starts on the outside at WLB.\u00a0 He went undrafted in 2019 out of Texas A&M.\u00a0 He has 66 tackles this season and has started just 8 games.\u00a0 Dorian Williams was a linebacker I liked coming out for the draft last season.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> round (#91) pick from Tulane is 6\u20191\u201d 228 lbs. and runs a sub 4.5 40-yard dash.\u00a0 He has added 40 tackles from his SLB position.\u00a0 The play of Williams has really lessened the blow of Matt Milano’s season ending injury.<\/p>\n

The Bills made a great trade before the deadline acquiring Rasul Douglas from the Green Bay Packers. \u00a0The Bills lost Tre\u2019Davious White to IR and replaced him with Douglas who is ranked by PFF as the #8 CB in the league this year.\u00a0 Douglas is signed through next year at a reasonable $7M.\u00a0 Taron Johnson is the other CB.\u00a0 The 2019 4th<\/sup> round selection (#121) played at Weber State.\u00a0 His 85 tackles are tied for 2nd<\/sup> on the team.\u00a0 Johnson is ranked 13th<\/sup> by PFF.\u00a0 There may not be a better pair of safeties in the league than Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.\u00a0 Poyer, ranked 16th<\/sup> by PFF, was a 2013 7th<\/sup> round selection (#217) by Philadelphia that has worked his way to the top of the league.\u00a0 The Oregon State grad has been the starting SS with Buffalo since 2017.\u00a0 This season he has 85 tackles.\u00a0 The 32-year-old safety has been selected as an All-Pro in 2021 and Pro Bowl in 2022.\u00a0 Hyde was a 2015 draft pick in the 5th<\/sup> round (#159) by Green Bay.\u00a0 He has contributed 49 tackles this season.\u00a0 His overall ranking by PFF is #44. In 2017 and 2021 he was selected as a 2nd<\/sup> team All-Pro and in 2017 he was a Pro Bowl selection.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nSpecial Teams<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PK<\/td>\nTyler Bass<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nSam\u00a0Martin<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H<\/td>\nSam Martin<\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PR<\/td>\nDeonte Harty<\/td>\nKhalil Shakir<\/td>\nNyheim Hines O<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KR<\/td>\nTy Johnson Q<\/td>\nDeonte Harty<\/td>\nKhalil Shakir<\/td>\nNyheim Hines O<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LS<\/td>\nReid\u00a0Ferguson<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bills Special Teams are ranked 12th<\/sup> in Kickoff and Punt Returns.\u00a0 As I stated before Deonte Harty can take it to the house from anywhere on the field and is a dangerous return man.\u00a0 Tyler Bass is ranked as the #6 kicker in the league.\u00a0 Punter Sam Martin is not good and is ranked 31st<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What to expect on Sunday.\u00a0 Buffalo has a lot to play for and they have been hot.\u00a0 That loss in Foxboro is enough motivation to stir them up.\u00a0 I look for a competitive game from the Patriots but I think the Bills have too much going for then playing at home.\u00a0 Weather must always be a concern in Buffalo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Patriots made an interesting waiver wire claim this week of cornerback Marco Wilson.\u00a0 The 2021 4th<\/sup> round selection (#136) was waived by Arizona.\u00a0 \u00a0He had outstanding testing numbers at his Pro Day.\u00a0 The Florida product ran a 4.36 40, 6.83 3-cone drill, 43.5\u201d Vertical Leap and 11\u201904\u201d Broad Jump.\u00a0 Arizona expected him to be their #1 CB this season.\u00a0 He has had a disastrous season giving up over 700 yards in pass receptions through 7 games and was subsequently benched.\u00a0 Given the state of the Patriots secondary he was worth the no-risk look.\u00a0 His 6.83 3-cone would be the best on the Patriots team.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bills sit at 9-6 and are in great position to make the playoffs.\u00a0 They have won three games in a row against some impressive opponents.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":48933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-commentary"],"yoast_head":"\nMORSE: Patriots Week 17 Preview: Buffalo Bills<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Bills sit at 9-6 and are in great position to make the playoffs.\u00a0 They have won three games in a row against some impressive 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