{"id":4639,"date":"2016-01-22T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2016-01-22T11:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=4639"},"modified":"2016-01-22T18:43:22","modified_gmt":"2016-01-22T23:43:22","slug":"patriots-broncos-key-matchups-who-has-the-razors-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2016\/01\/22\/patriots-broncos-key-matchups-who-has-the-razors-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots, Broncos Keys to the AFCCG, Who Has the Razor’s Edge?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> need one more win to get back to the Super Bowl with a chance to repeat as champions. But to do so, they face a familiar nemesis in the Denver Broncos.<\/p>\n

The game will be televised by CBS with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms on the call. The game will also be on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak doing the play-by-play and analysis. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET<\/p>\n

The Patriots defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round 27-20 as Tom Brady threw for 302 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski. The team welcomed back Julian Edelman and his presence ignited the short passing game. Edelman missed the final seven games but had 10 catches for 100 yards on Saturday.<\/p>\n

The Broncos made a big fourth quarter comeback and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 23-16. Trailing 13-12, it appeared as if the Steelers were driving for clinching touchdown when a fumble turned the game around. The Broncos scored the next 11 points in the final four minutes to pull away for the win.<\/p>\n

We here at\u00a0PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0are continuing our playoff edition of the\u00a0\u201cRazor\u2019s Edge\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0column in 2016 to give a quick break down on some of the key match-ups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.<\/p>\n

Series History:<\/strong>
\nThe Patriots and Broncos will meet for the 51st<\/sup> time in their history, the most the Patriots have faced an opponent that has been outside their division. The Patriots never seem to play their best football in the altitude there as they\u2019ve been 9-20 in Denver\u00a0since the early days of the NFL. There was one stretch from 1984 -1998 that the teams met 11 times, nine of them in Denver and the Pats lost them all.<\/p>\n

The two teams met in November in Week 12 with the Broncos taking a 30-24 win in OT.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key match-ups and who holds the Razor\u2019s Edge.<\/p>\n

First up is the Patriots offense:<\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs Broncos Front Seven – <\/strong>Razor\u2019s Edge Denver
\n<\/em>The Patriots running game was virtually non-existent (87.8ypg), this season and don\u2019t expect that to change against the #3 rated run defense in the NFL. The offensive line gave no one, be it LaGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, Brandon Bolden or Steven Jackson much room to run this season. And they won\u2019t attempt a bunch on Sunday as well.<\/p>\n

The Broncos allow only 83.6 yards per game on the ground with the 3-4 defense they operate in under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Their front three has the underrated DL Sylvester Williams flanked by Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson and they are good at the point of attack and allow an athletic group of linebackers led by Danny Trevathan to fly up and make plays.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to run a few plays to keep the defense honest and try to catch them off-guard with a couple of traps and an occasional Jet-sweep hoping to catch the line in a stunt. But that is about it\u2026for them to go to Santa Clara it will have to be thru the air.<\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs Broncos Secondary – <\/strong>Razor\u2019s Edge New England<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
\nJames White could see an expanded role in the passing offense.
\n(USA TODAY Images)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The long-awaited return of Julian Edelman couldn\u2019t have come at a better time. He jump started\u00a0the Patriots short passing game which in turn, helped a beleaguered offensive line and allowed the other receivers more room to operate. It was a snow-ball effect that aided\u00a0the entire offense.<\/p>\n

In the first meeting this season, the Pats were without Edelman and Danny Amendola and they lost TE Rob Gronkowski in the second half. James White wasn\u2019t yet a trusted member of the offense and it ultimately cost them when their top receivers outside were Brandon LaFell, Chris Harper and Keshawn Martin.<\/p>\n

Denver has the #1 defense in the NFL against the pass and besides having one of the top secondaries in the league, boast an outstanding pass rush featuring DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. Phillips loves to blitz and Denver led the league in sacks with 52. Ware is back, having missed the first game and he gives Denver the bookend pass rushers that make them hard to block. Don\u2019t go to sleep on Shaq Barrett either,\u00a0as\u00a0the 2nd<\/sup> year OLB filled in admirably in Ware\u2019s absence and chipped in with 5.5 sacks.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to spread them out similar to what they did last week against the Chiefs. With four and at times five wide receivers, the Broncos will have to match up and with White out of the backfield, they\u2019ll attempt to put Denver\u2019s linebackers in space and force them to cover something they attempted in the first meeting.<\/p>\n

Next up the Denver offense:<\/p>\n

Broncos RBs vs NE Front Seven –\u00a0<\/strong>Razor\u2019s Edge Denver<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
\nDont’a Hightower is the key element in the Patriots ability to stop the run.
\n(USA TODAY Images)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The Broncos run the zone blocking scheme that Gary Kubiak has used in his various stops in the league. They got it figured out in the second half of the season and don’t be misled by\u00a0Denver\u2019s 107.4 average on the season. In their last seven games, Denver averaged 134.8 yards per game. Much of it\u00a0had to do with Manning\u2019s injury and the shotgun and Pistol formations they had to compromise\u00a0with went by the wayside once Brock Osweiler took over and played under center.<\/p>\n

Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson have done a great job for the Broncos down the stretch. They will be guys the Patriots defense has to stop if they want to be successful.<\/p>\n

The Patriots defense has been generally very good against the run this season. Led by veteran Alan Branch and rookie Malcom Brown, the front line has done a good job of defeating runs at the point of attack. The key for the Patriots has been the play of the linebackers Dont\u2019a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo. When those three were healthy and in the game, the run defense was outstanding. When they were out hurt, it suffered.<\/p>\n

In the first meeting Denver rushed 15 times for 43 yards (2.9 avg) while Hightower was in the game. After he was injured, the Broncos rushed 15 more times for 132 yards (8.8 avg), and three touchdowns. Mayo was placed on IR after injuring his shoulder against KC and both Collins and Hightower are hurt. The Patriots need both of them to play and play well this week.<\/p>\n

This Broncos zone blocking scheme will be a familiar foe as they faced it earlier this season and with the Ravens in the playoffs last year as Kubiak was the OC for Baltimore. The Broncos offensive line is getting healthier now and they’ve done a great job of opening up those cut-back lanes.<\/p>\n

Broncos WRs vs NE Secondary- <\/strong>Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em>Manning is back under center but he\u2019s not the same player that he was just a few years ago. He struggles to put the zip on the ball that he\u2019ll be required to in order to make all the throws. The Broncos now run first and with a complimentary, albeit dangerous passing game. They have Emmanuel Sanders who gave Malcolm Butler fits in the November game as well as Demaryius Thomas, whom Logan Ryan did an outstanding job on in the earlier matchup.<\/p>\n

The Patriots pass defense was much better than anticipated in 2015. CBs Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan have been \u00a0solid and the pass rush, although much less heralded than the Broncos was second in the league with 49 sacks. Edge rushers Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard combined for 27 sacks. If Collins (who also missed the November game), and Hightower can play, it not only increases their coverage capability for tight ends and backs, but allows them to blitz the A-gap something they\u2019ve both been very good with.<\/p>\n

The key here for New England is similar to what Denver will also attempt to do. Try to bring pressure on the QB and do so up the middle. Akiem Hicks who came over from the Saints has done a good job of doing just that. \u00a0If the Patriots can do this, they can force Manning off his spot where he doesn\u2019t move well. Sanders and Thomas will attempt to work the short area of the field and run some crosses and outside routes with an occasional deep shot.<\/p>\n

Special Teams- <\/strong>Razor\u2019s Edge Denver
\n<\/em>The Patriots have the best kicker in the game with Stephen Gostkowski. He\u2019s as close to automatic as they come and has as strong a leg as anyone. Ryan Allen didn\u2019t have a strong game against the Chiefs and ended up with a net punting average of 26.3 The coverage units weren\u2019t stellar and Danny Amendola took a bad penalty that put the Pats back on their two-yard line to start a drive. Amendola did jump start the offense with a 22-yard punt return.<\/p>\n

The Broncos have a solid kicker in Brandon McManus who scored all their points until late in the fourth quarter. He booted five field goals on the day. Punter Brandon Colquitt single-handedly kept them in the game with some excellent directional punting. Denver\u2019s coverage units are solid and they have the dangerous Sanders to run back punts. Denver’s playing at home and with the conditions that could involve some wind again, they get the nod here.<\/p>\n

Next up, who wins and why\u2026<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
\nThe return of Julian Edelman to the Patriots offense gives them a big boost this time around.
\n(USA TODAY Images)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

This one was the only conference championship game that was a correct fit as the two teams were the best in the AFC all season. The contrast is perfect as the Broncos were doing it with defense and the Patriots with offense. New England stumbled down the stretch with injuries and it cost them a home game on Sunday\u2026something that may come back to haunt them.<\/p>\n

With the additions of Edelman and Amendola this time around, it should make the Patriots offense much harder to stop, especially on third down. With Edelman in the lineup the team was right around 50 percent, and after he went down with his foot injury that fell to around 33 percent. Last week it was right back up to 50 percent again. The Patriots were awful in Denver back in November on third downs, putting too much pressure on the defense.<\/p>\n

The other thing Edelman brings which we mentioned above is the quick passing game. Last week Brady\u2019s 10\u00a0completions to Edelman averaged 1.57 seconds from snap to throw. The six completions to Gronkowski outside the numbers were an even faster 1.48 seconds (courtesy of Mike Giardi<\/strong> CSNNE). This should give the Patriots the ability to move the chains this time. The injury to Chris Harris is the \u201cX-Factor\u201d here. He can cover the short underneath routes and match Edelman\u2019s quickness. If he can\u2019t go, putting Aqib Talib on him would be a win for the Patriots\u2026Talib’s strength is covering the bigger, more physical WRs, not the smaller, shiftier ones.<\/p>\n

The Broncos will try to run those stretch plays where they have a big cutback lane in the running game that they\u2019ve been so successful with. That will accomplish two things; it get the linebackers to cover more ground in space and it will allow the tight end (Owen Daniels) more room to run in.<\/p>\n

The Broncos, with Manning\u2019s arm strength an issue, don\u2019t want to get into a shoot-out situation. Rather they’ll want\u00a0to run the ball effectively and limit Brady\u2019s snaps, and control the clock. He’ll lean on Sanders on both the short passing game and take a few shots when they become available.<\/p>\n

One interesting tidbit this week, Brady in the postseason has faced the #1 defense three times, all of them on the road. The Patriots are 3-0 in those games and in all three instances went on to win the Super Bowl. Patriots 27-20<\/strong><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter\u00a0<\/em>@SteveB7SFG<\/em><\/a>\u00a0or email me at\u00a0<\/em>stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our\u00a0<\/em>Patriots 4th<\/sup>\u00a0and 2<\/em><\/a>\u00a0podcast on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from\u00a0<\/em>PatsFans.com<\/em><\/a>\u00a0discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brady in the postseason has faced the #1 defense three times, all of them on the road. The Patriots are 3-0 in those games and in all three instances went on to win the Super Bowl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[778,185,464,792,607,34,132,148,785,37,615,18,603,147,277,786,204,606,614,16,17,44,70,793,8,38,329,201,248,117,36,604,790,608,13,602,794],"class_list":["post-4639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-commentary","category-patriots-news","tag-2015-nfl-post-season","tag-2015-nfl-season","tag-2015-patriots-season","tag-afc-championship-game","tag-aqib-talib","tag-bill-belichick","tag-brandon-lafell","tag-brandon-marshall","tag-c-j-anderson","tag-chandler-jones","tag-chris-harris","tag-danny-amendola","tag-demarcus-ware","tag-demaryius-thomas","tag-denver-broncos","tag-derek-wolfe","tag-dion-lewis","tag-emmanuel-sanders","tag-gary-kubiak","tag-jabaal-sheard","tag-julian-edelman","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-nfl","tag-owen-daniels","tag-patriots","tag-patriots-edge-rushers","tag-peyton-manning","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-predictions","tag-rob-gronkowski","tag-rob-ninkovich","tag-ronnie-hillman","tag-shaq-barrett","tag-t-j-ward","tag-tom-brady","tag-von-miller","tag-wade-phillips"],"yoast_head":"\nPatriots, Broncos Keys to the AFCCG, Who Has the Razor's Edge?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brady in the postseason has faced the #1 defense three times, all of them on the road. 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