{"id":46379,"date":"2023-05-13T11:05:46","date_gmt":"2023-05-13T15:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=46379"},"modified":"2023-05-13T11:05:46","modified_gmt":"2023-05-13T15:05:46","slug":"morse-patriots-schedule-analysis-and-won-loss-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2023\/05\/13\/morse-patriots-schedule-analysis-and-won-loss-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: Patriots Schedule Analysis and Won\/Loss Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

Now that the Patriots’ Official Schedule is out, we can look at it and project wins and losses.\u00a0 The Patriots have a brutal schedule according to NBC Analyst Warren Sharp.\u00a0 He states the Patriots have the worst schedule based on the projected wins by the Las Vegas Oddsmakers.<\/p>\n

Now we know when the Patriots will be playing these teams and how many days off they will have.\u00a0 Last season Sharp declared the Patriots had the worst schedule based on the number of days off.<\/p>\n

The Patriots lost 12 days of rest over the course of the season and gained no advantage of having the BYE week (except the rest) because the schedule makers gave the Jets the same BYE week and that was the Patriots’ opponent the next game.<\/p>\n

This appears at 1st<\/sup> glance to be a fair and balanced schedule with a few hiccups along the way.\u00a0 I will go game by game and assign a win or loss to each.<\/p>\n

Warren Sharp had done a schedule analysis for the league and has the Patriots’ schedule ranked #23.\u00a0 That is better than the #32 he predicted after the Vegas Won\/Loss prediction came out.\u00a0 The biggest reason is the number of excellent QBs the Pats will face over the course of the season.\u00a0 Perhaps this is the reason that Bill Belichick used his 1st three draft picks this season on Defense.<\/p>\n

Week 1 PHI @ NE \u2013 Tough opening match.\u00a0 I expect the offense to be greatly improved from last year. However, I don\u2019t think the Pats are ready to hang with the Eagles.\u00a0 Nice to have the GOAT in the house but that\u2019s not going to be enough.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 2 MIA @ NE \u2013 How do you match up with all that speed the Miami offense has?\u00a0 The Patriots’ defense was #11 in the league last season and I think they may be even better this year with the addition of Gonzalez, White, and Mapu.\u00a0 This has always been a rivalry game.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t like that we have to play at home so early in the season.\u00a0 That\u2019s a big advantage to Miami, who doesn\u2019t have to play in the cold.\u00a0 Despite this, I think the Patriots will prevail in this game. WIN<\/p>\n

Week 3 NE @ NYJ \u2013 How much of an impact will Aaron Rodgers have on the Jets?\u00a0 I don\u2019t think it is going to be as much as people think.\u00a0 Rodgers is crafty but he is also old.\u00a0 Jets O-line is a mess and have not established a running game.\u00a0 This is a game the Patriots can snatch on the road.\u00a0 WIN<\/p>\n

Week 4 NE @ DAL \u2013 Great game to attend if you are interested in going on the road with the Patriots.\u00a0 The house that Jerry built is magnificent.\u00a0 My wife and I went with a Patriots Tailgating group the last time they played in Big D and had a ball.\u00a0 Now about the game.<\/p>\n

I think the Cowboys will have a slight edge in this game by playing at home.\u00a0 It will be close.\u00a0 Injuries start to crop up around this time and could affect the final outcome.\u00a0 The Cowboys will come out on top.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 5 NO @ NE \u2013 The Saints are in a bigger rebuilding role than the Patriots are.\u00a0 The Pats, despite poor offensive coaching, nearly won 11 games.\u00a0 The Patriots are just plain better than the Saints and are playing at home.\u00a0 WIN<\/p>\n

Week 6 NE @ LV \u2013 Jimmy Garoppolo has some nice weapons.\u00a0 Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Jakobi Meyers along with rookie TE Michael Mayer give the QB options.\u00a0 Josh Jacobs gives them a reliable running game to set up Garoppolo and play action passes.<\/p>\n

The game is in Las Vegas and that is West Coast travel.\u00a0 I am giving the Raiders the nod because they are playing at home.\u00a0 Just remember the Patriots were in control of that game last year in Las Vegas before they threw up on themselves.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 7 BUF @ NE \u2013 Josh Allen \u2026 enough said.\u00a0 I think the Bills have actually gotten better this year.\u00a0 Love their signing of Damien Harris.\u00a0 He is a reliable backup.\u00a0 They have added former All-Pro Punt Returner Deonte Harris and drafted TE Dalton Kincaid.<\/p>\n

The Deonte Harris signing was a sneaky good signing and he easily replaces Isaiah McKenzie.\u00a0 James Cook is now the number 1 RB.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 8 NE @ MIA \u2013 The Patriots wilt when they have to play in the heat of Miami.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 9 WAS @ NE \u2013 Another team in transition.\u00a0 Who is afraid of Sam Howell at QB?\u00a0 They have a nice receiving core but the QB play is not good enough.\u00a0 Dotson, Samuel, McLaurin, and Gibson are above-average receiving corps.\u00a0 The Commanders’ defense is good but that\u2019s not enough to beat the Patriots at home. WIN<\/p>\n

Week 10 IND @ NE in Frankfurt Germany \u2013 The fact they are playing in Germany neutralizes the home-field advantage.\u00a0 However, the Colts QB situation bears watching.\u00a0 If Richardson is the QB, then Belichick can do his magic and play with his head.\u00a0 Bill has a great record against rookie QBs.\u00a0 WIN<\/p>\n

Week 11\u00a0 BYE\u00a0 The BYE is placed at a good time, but the next stretch of 6 games is brutal.<\/p>\n

Week 12 NE @ NYG \u2013 This is an interesting game between what looks like it could be evenly-matched teams.\u00a0 Daniel Jones has elevated himself into the top 10 QBs in the league, especially with his mobility.\u00a0 Playing the game at the Meadowlands is the difference.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 13 LAC @ NE \u2013 Another great QB in Justin Herbert.\u00a0 Good receiving corps in Allen, Williams, and rookie Quentin Johnson.\u00a0 This may be the last roundup with Austin Ekeler as he will be an Unrestricted Free Agent next year at age 29.\u00a0 \u00a0Too much firepower!\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 14 NE @ PIT Thursday Night Football \u2013 Short week and playing at Pittsburgh doom the Pats.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 15 KC @ NE Monday Night Football \u2013 The Defending Super Bowl Champs come to Foxboro.\u00a0 The Patriots will benefit from the mini-bye and having an extra day to prepare.<\/p>\n

However, they are playing the champs.\u00a0 Too much Mahomes and company.\u00a0 The receivers don\u2019t impress me but Patrick Mahomes ability to extend plays and get them the ball does.\u00a0 Travis Kelce is a beast but I would think the Patriots could neutralize him.\u00a0 Close game but the Champs come out on top.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 16 NE @ DEN Short week for the Pats plus west coast travel.\u00a0 Mile High Stadium is a house of horrors for the Patriots.\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 17 NE @ BUF\u00a0 Bills Mafia and home field\u00a0 LOSS<\/p>\n

Week 18 NYJ @ NE I wonder if this game will mean anything for either team?\u00a0 The Jets have to prove to me they are a better team and the Pats are playing at home.\u00a0 WIN<\/p>\n

Overall record 6-11.\u00a0\u00a0 The Patriots will be an improved team, especially on Offense, but the Defense is not good enough to stop the onslaught of good Offensive teams.<\/p>\n

Two games stand out to me.\u00a0 The week 14 Thursday Night game at Pittsburgh and the Week 16 game versus Denver.\u00a0 The short week in both games is working against the Patriots in away games that I would normally put in the win column.\u00a0 Last season I predicted the same win\/loss record and the Patriots did much better than I thought they would have with the inexperienced Offensive Coaches.\u00a0 Bill O\u2019Brien\u2019s influence is already being felt.<\/p>\n

If the Defense can stop some of these high-powered offenses and the Patriots’ Offense improves as I expect they will, they may have a chance for some upsets.\u00a0 Despite the win\/loss projection, I am optimistic for the upcoming season.<\/p>\n

Morse\u2019s Morsels<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lynn Bowden Waived <\/strong><\/p>\n

The corresponding move to Trae Hayes signing was the release of Lynn Bowden.\u00a0 The WR was on the Patriots Practice Squad last season.\u00a0 The signing of UDFA Malik Cunningham made Bowden expendable.\u00a0 \u00a0Bowden was a WR for two seasons at Kentucky and then as a senior, they asked him to take over at QB.\u00a0 He was an elusive running QB and he led Kentucky to a Bowl Game.<\/p>\n

In 2020, Bowden was drafted as a running back in the 3rd<\/sup> Round (#80) as a selection of the Las Vegas Raiders.\u00a0 He was traded to the Miami Dolphins at cutdown day.\u00a0\u00a0 Bowden had a 7 catch game for the Phins in 2020.\u00a0 The following season on cutdown day, he was put on IR and was out for the 2021 season.\u00a0 The Patriots picked him up for their Practice Squad after he was waived on cutdown day in 2022.<\/p>\n

Two More Rookies Signed \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

The other two 6th-round picks signed.\u00a0 Bryce Barringer, P, Michigan State, signed as did Demarius Douglas WR Liberty.\u00a0 Barringer holds the Michigan State record with a 49-yards per punt average for a season (2022).\u00a0 He also holds the Big 10 career record of 46 yards per punt for a career.\u00a0 Douglas played at the East-West Shrine game for WR position coach Troy Brown.<\/p>\n

Douglas is fearless on crossing routes despite his 5\u2019 8\u201d size.\u00a0 He also doesn\u2019t drop the ball.\u00a0 He had only 4 drops in over a hundred targets. Douglas is also an accomplished kickoff return man.\u00a0 You know that Bill Belichick likes those players that can play more than one position.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now that the Patriots’ Official Schedule is out, we can look at it and project wins and losses. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":42998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23229],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2023-patriots-offseason"],"yoast_head":"\nMORSE: Patriots Schedule Analysis and Won\/Loss Prediction<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Now that the Patriots' Official Schedule is out, we can look at it and project wins and losses.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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