{"id":43756,"date":"2022-10-21T11:32:33","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T15:32:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=43756"},"modified":"2022-10-21T11:40:07","modified_gmt":"2022-10-21T15:40:07","slug":"morse-patriots-vs-bears-week-7-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2022\/10\/21\/morse-patriots-vs-bears-week-7-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: Patriots vs Bears – Week 7 Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

This week’s opponent is the Chicago Bears.\u00a0 The storied franchise of the NFL is a long way from the old glory days.\u00a0 The Bears are 2-4 overall but 0-3 on the road.\u00a0 They do have the benefit of a couple of extra days rest, having played a snoozer on Thursday Night Football last week.\u00a0 The final was 12-7.\u00a0 QB Justin Fields has struggled and nobody knows why.<\/p>\n

Offense <\/strong><\/p>\n

3WR 1TE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QB<\/td>\nJustin Fields Q<\/td>\nTrevor Siemian<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RB<\/td>\nDavid Montgomery<\/td>\nKhalil Herbert<\/td>\nTrestan Ebner<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nDarnell Mooney<\/td>\nN’Keal Harry<\/td>\nByron Pringle IR<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nEquanimeous St. Brown<\/td>\nVelus Jones Jr<\/td>\n<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WR<\/td>\nDante Pettis<\/td>\nIsaiah Coulter<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TE<\/td>\nCole Kmet<\/td>\nRyan Griffin<\/td>\nTrevon Wesco<\/td>\nJake Tonges<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FB<\/td>\nKhari Blasingame<\/td>\nJake Tonges<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LT<\/td>\nBraxton\u00a0Jones<\/td>\nLarry Borom<\/td>\nRiley Reiff<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LG<\/td>\nJa’Tyre\u00a0Carter<\/td>\nCody Whitehair\u00a0IR<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
C<\/td>\nLucas\u00a0Patrick<\/td>\nSam Mustipher<\/td>\nDoug Kramer\u00a0IR<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RG<\/td>\nTeven Jenkins<\/td>\nLucas\u00a0Patrick<\/td>\nMichael Schofield III<\/td>\nAlex Leatherwood\u00a0O<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RT<\/td>\nLarry Borom<\/td>\nRiley Reiff<\/td>\nTeven Jenkins<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fields pass is sub-par.\u00a0 He has completed 63 passes on 115 attempts for a 54.8%.\u00a0 That was for 869 yards and a 7.6 average.\u00a0 As a team, they have scored 4 passing TDs, against 5 INTs.\u00a0 Fields has been sacked 23 times and blitzed 55% of the time.<\/p>\n

According to Warren Sharp, Chicago has the 6th <\/sup>toughest schedule and the 3rd<\/sup> worst net rest edge.\u00a0 The Patriots have the worst net rest edge at -12 days. \u00a0\u00a0This week the Bears enjoy a +3 because they played on Thursday Night.<\/p>\n

Under former Head Coach Matt Nagy, Chicago finished with 1.1 yards per play average, the worst in the league since 2004.\u00a0 Nagy assumed the play-calling duties halfway through the season.\u00a0 The Bears averaged 9.9 yards to go on 3rd<\/sup> down.\u00a0 Their 3rd<\/sup> down conversion rate was the worst in the league.<\/p>\n

Enter new head coach Matt Eberflus. \u00a0The former Defensive Coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts has no Offensive experience in his background.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Eberflus hired two rookie coordinators, a 37-year-old Defensive Coordinator, Alan Williams, and Luke Etsy as Offensive coordinator.\u00a0 \u00a0Getsy was the Packers QB coach and passing game coordinator.\u00a0 He played QB in college at Pittsburgh and then for two years at Akron.\u00a0 The coach’s inexperience and forcing a new playbook on a 2nd<\/sup> year QB has been very difficult on Fields.\u00a0 Sound familiar, doesn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

Some interesting insights were provided by Warren Sharp Analysis in his 2002 Football Preview.\u00a0 \u00a0Justin Fields started the season well but the brutal schedule the Bears were to face did them in.\u00a0 Fields missed most of the second half of the season with ankle, hip, and rib injuries.\u00a0 His struggles from his rookie year have not been corrected and have carried over into 2022.\u00a0 Teams are blitzing him at a 55% rate.\u00a0 Mac Jones faced the same pressure but learned to deal with it.\u00a0 In 6 games this year, Fields’ highest passing yards total was 208 yards.\u00a0 The Bears are a run-first team with 197 rushes for 1025 yards, 5.2 yards a carry, and 171 yards rushing a game.\u00a0 They only have 5 TDs and fumbled 7 times as a team, none by RBs but 4 by Fields.\u00a0 You know the Patriots are a run-first team, compare that to the Patriots’ 178 rushes for 788 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 8 TDs for 131 yards a game with 3 Fumbles, none by RBs, and the one by Zappe was a strip sack.<\/p>\n

Khalil Herbert leads the Bears in rushing with 63 carries for 403 yards, 6.4 average, 3 TDs, and 67.2 yards per game.\u00a0 David Montgomery has been the number 1 runningback but was hampered by injuries.\u00a0 His numbers are 62 carries for 246 yards, 4.0 average, 1 TD, and 49.2 yards per game.\u00a0 Justin Fields is a terrific athlete and he can beat you with his legs.\u00a0 He has 54 carries for 282 yards, 5.2 a carry, 1 TD, and 47 yards per game.\u00a0 The big stat with Fields is ball security, as he has fumbled 4 times in 6 games.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The receivers are led by Darnell Mooney who has 17 catches on 33 targets for 241 yards, a 14.2 YPC average, but no TDs.\u00a0 He is averaging a mere 40.2 yards a game.\u00a0 Mooney\u2019s game was supposed to step up with the loss of WR Allen Robinson to the Los Angeles Rams.\u00a0 It hasn\u2019t, but it\u2019s not his fault. \u00a0He has great speed (4.38) and runs precise routes. \u00a0The knock on Mooney is that he is under 6\u2019 tall and weighs just 176 lbs.\u00a0 In comparison, New England\u2019s Tyquan Thornton is 6\u20192\u201d and 183 lbs and runs between 4.21 (u) and 4.28(o) time in the 40.\u00a0 Mooney\u2019s shortcomings fall upon Justin Fields who just can\u2019t get him the ball.\u00a0 \u00a0Dante Pettis, enters his 5th<\/sup> year in the league and Chicago is the third team he has been with since being drafted by SF in 2nd<\/sup> rd (#44) in 2018. \u00a0He played two years with the Giants prior to signing with Chicago.\u00a0 The 6\u20191 195lbs speedster out of the University of Washington has only 5 catches on 13 targets in 6 games.\u00a0 He has accumulated 135 yards for a 27.0 YPC average, and 2 TDs.\u00a0 He is a threat whenever he touches the ball, he just doesn\u2019t get it enough.<\/p>\n

Cole Kmet, the golden domer from Notre Dame, is TE’s top target.\u00a0 Everyone expected a big year out of Kmet, especially with Robinson leaving for Los Angeles in Free Agency.\u00a0 It has materialized.\u00a0 He had 60 catches last year and a big jump was expected this season.\u00a0 He has 10 catches on 15 targets for 116 yards. 11.6 YPC, no TDs, and 19.3 yards per game. \u00a0He is vastly underutilized in this offense.<\/p>\n

David Montgomery is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.\u00a0 The reliable Montgomery has 10 catches on 11 targets for 113 yards, an 11.3 YPC, no TDs, and only 22.6 yards a game.<\/p>\n

The Offensive line is led by two second-year Tackles, Braxton Jones and Larry Borom.\u00a0 Borom replaced former 1st<\/sup> round pick, Riley Reiff, at RT.\u00a0 The 6\u20195\u201d 335 lb Borom was drafted in the 5th<\/sup> round of the 2020 Draft.\u00a0 Jones is a 5th<\/sup> round selection in this year\u2019s draft and a big surprise.\u00a0 Their inexperience can sometimes get Fields in trouble especially when teams scheme pass rushes for extra pressure.\u00a0 On the inside, That\u2019s 4 of 5 linemen drafted in the last three years.\u00a0 No wonder Fields has been sacked 23 times. Right Guard Teven Jenkins is a big guard at 6\u20196\u201d and 323 lbs.\u00a0 The Oklahoma product was also drafted last year in the 2nd<\/sup> round (#39).\u00a0 Lucas Patrick is at LG.\u00a0 The 6-year veteran played 5 years with Green Bay before signing a two-year contract in Free Agency with Chicago.\u00a0 Lucas left the Washington game last Thursday with a head injury but came back to finish the game.\u00a0 Sam Mustipher has been pressed into action with Cody Whitehair being added to the IR. \u00a0\u00a0He has started all 6 games and has not performed very well.\u00a0 Chicago Insider says he will be replaced this week by Lucas Patrick.\u00a0 Patrick has been playing with a cast on his right hand from a pre-season thumb injury.\u00a0 \u00a0Ja\u2019Tyre Carter is the primary backup at G.\u00a0 Carter is a good size at guard standing 6\u20193: and weighing 311 lbs.\u00a0 The 7th-round\u00a0pick (#226) from Southern, an HBCU school needs a redshirt year to get acclimated to the NFL.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Defense <\/strong><\/p>\n

Base 4-3 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LDE<\/td>\nAl-Quadin Muhammad<\/td>\nTrevis Gipson<\/td>\nKingsley Jonathan<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LDT<\/td>\nAngelo Blackson<\/td>\nMike Pennel Jr.<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RDT<\/td>\nJustin Jones<\/td>\nArmon Watts<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RDE<\/td>\nRobert\u00a0Quinn<\/td>\nDominique\u00a0Robinson<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WLB<\/td>\nJoe\u00a0Thomas<\/td>\nSterling Weatherford<\/td>\nMatthew\u00a0Adams IR<\/td>\nJavin\u00a0White IR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MLB<\/td>\nRoquan\u00a0Smith<\/td>\nJack Sanborn<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SLB<\/td>\nNicholas Morrow<\/td>\n\u00a0<\/u><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LCB<\/td>\nJaylon\u00a0Johnson O<\/td>\nJaylon\u00a0Jones<\/td>\nLamar Jackson<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SS<\/td>\nJaquan Brisker<\/td>\nDane Cruikshank<\/td>\n<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FS<\/td>\nEddie\u00a0Jackson<\/td>\nDeAndre\u00a0Houston -Carson<\/td>\nElijah Hicks<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RCB<\/td>\nKyler\u00a0Gordon<\/td>\nKindle Vildor<\/td>\nLamar Jackson<\/td>\nJosh Blackwell<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bears lost a huge part of their Defensive identity when they failed to re-sign former Patriots DT Akiem Hicks.\u00a0 They also lost DTs Eddie Goldman and Bilal Nicholas.\u00a0 They wanted to re-sign Larry Ogunjobi but he failed his physical.\u00a0 \u00a0Chicago moved on from LBs Alec Ogletree and Danny Trevathan.\u00a0 They never really got over trading away LB Khalil Mack.\u00a0 When talking about the Bears’ defense you start with Roquan Smith at MLB.\u00a0 He leads the team in tackles with 66.\u00a0 \u00a0Smith was the Bears’ 1st<\/sup> pick #8 in the 2018 draft.\u00a0 He has lived up to that selection.\u00a0 He is a tackling machine.\u00a0 The former Georgia LB is a two-time 2nd-team\u00a0All-Pro and was the SEC Defensive Player of the year.\u00a0 Smith requested a trade from Chicago during the off-season and held out of camp.\u00a0 He won\u2019t negotiate during the season.\u00a0 Nicholas Morrow is 2nd<\/sup> on the team in tackles with 46.\u00a0 Joe Thomas fills the Weakside LB spot. \u00a0He was an Undrafted Free Agent with Las Vegas for three years and then signed with Chicago.\u00a0 He is an undersized LB at 6\u20191\u201d and 216 lbs.\u00a0 Joe Thomas was originally signed as an Undrafted Free Agent by Green Bay, he finally cracked the 53-man roster in 2015 after he was signed off the Dallas Practice Squad in 2015. \u00a0He re-signed with Dallas on a two-year contract.\u00a0 He has bounced around the league and was signed back with Chicago earlier in March 2022, cut in training camp, resigned to Practice Squad, and then promoted to the active roster in September. \u00a0He is another 6\u20191\u201d 227 lb linebacker.\u00a0 They are all the small quick type of LB.\u00a0 \u00a0Rookie Jack Sanborn from Wisconsin is a player I liked coming out and has filled a backup role.\u00a0 \u00a0Robert Quinn was the second highest-rated DE at Pass Rush Win Rate.\u00a0 \u00a0Al-Quadin Muhammad is the other DE.\u00a0 At DT Justin Jones has 20 tackles, Muhammad 18 tackles, Aaron Watts 17 tackles, and Dominque Robinson 12.\u00a0 \u00a0As a defense, they rank 22nd<\/sup> against the run (120 yards per game).\u00a0 Against the pass, they are ranked 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 They are led by rookie Kyler Gorgon at CB with 37 tackles.\u00a0 The former Washington Huskie, Gordon was a player the Patriots were interested in.\u00a0 Starting LCB Jaylon Johnson has been ruled out for this game.\u00a0 Kindle Vildor will more than likely fill his spot.\u00a0 He has 23 tackles.\u00a0 \u00a0Safeties are Jaquan Brisker has 35 tackles, and Eddie Jackson’s 43 tackles lead the secondary.\u00a0 Jackson is a ball hawk and has 3 INTs on the season.\u00a0 The Defensive coordinator for the Bears is Allan Williams who brings 30 years of coaching experience, and 21 years in the NFL to the table.\u00a0 This is his 1st<\/sup> year as Defensive coordinator.\u00a0 He was the Colts’ Safeties coach for the last 5 seasons.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Special Teams<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nSTARTER<\/strong><\/td>\n2ND<\/strong><\/td>\n3RD<\/strong><\/td>\n4TH<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PK<\/td>\nCairo Santos<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
P<\/td>\nTrenton Gill<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H<\/td>\nTrenton Gill<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PR<\/td>\nVelus Jones Jr<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KR<\/td>\nVelus Jones Jr<\/td>\nKhalil Herbert<\/td>\nTrestan Ebner<\/td>\nByron Pringle IR<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LS<\/td>\nPatrick Scales<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trenton Gill is ranked as the #10 punter in the league with a very good 48.7 yards per kick average.\u00a0\u00a0 The kicking game is sub-par with Cairo Santos ranked 27th<\/sup>.\u00a0 In the return game rookie speedster (4.32 40 from Combine) from Tennessee Velus Jones is 28th in Kickoff Returns and 30th<\/sup> in Punt Returns.\u00a0 The Patriots will have a big advantage on Special Teams.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Morse\u2019s Morsels<\/strong><\/p>\n

Comings and Goings <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Patriots lost Special Teams ace Cody Davis to season-ending knee surgery.\u00a0 Davis led the team in Special Teams tackles last year.\u00a0 He was also the personnel protector for the punter.\u00a0 The Patriots didn\u2019t waste any time finding a replacement for Davis.\u00a0 They signed WR Raleigh Webb off the Ravens Practice Squad.\u00a0 Since he was signed from a Practice Squad, he must remain on the 53-man roster for three weeks.\u00a0 Webb is 6\u20192 204 lbs and runs a 4,58.\u00a0 He played his college ball at the Citadel.\u00a0 He played against the Patriots earlier this season as a special teams player.\u00a0 He had 2 ST tackles this season and even plated some at Safety in the game versus the Patriots.\u00a0 The Patriots also made a couple of moves on the Practice squad, waiving K Tristan Vizcaino and signing DE\/LB Ronn\u2019Dell Carter.\u00a0 He is a 6\u20193\u201d 269 pass-rush specialist.\u00a0\u00a0 The Rutgers transfer finished at James Madison and was the Conference and FCS Defensive Player of the Year in 2029.\u00a0 He has bounced around the league with 7 stops either on the Practice Squad or active rosters before signing with New England.<\/p>\n

These stats from Evan Lazar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bailey Zappe is the 1st<\/sup> rookie QB to win his 1st<\/sup> two starts while posting a QB rating over 100.\u00a0 In fact, if you include the extended time he played against Green Bay, which would make three straight games with a 100 or better rating. \u00a0He is leading the league in QB rating with 111.4.\u00a0 \u00a0Zappe was 7 of 8 when running play-action.\u00a0 This is from a QB who had never taken a snap under center until the Reese\u2019s Senior Bowl. \u00a0On these 7 play-action completions he averaged 20.6 ypc.<\/p>\n

Jack Jones continues to lead the league in CB Ratings per Pro Football Focus.\u00a0 JC Jackson, who was benched last week, sits at number 103.<\/p>\n

Mac Jones only had 11 dropbacks while under Center.\u00a0 He only dialed up 10.8% of play-action passes. Zappe was over 21% of his dropbacks under Center with 31.6% of those being play-action.\u00a0 I also like how Zappe extends the ball, making it look like a stretch run.\u00a0 Those stretch run plays are exactly what the zone blocking is for.<\/p>\n

QB with 85 dropbacks this season (36 QB qualified), who is the leader in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)?\u00a0 That would be Bailey Zappe at +8.9.\u00a0 He is also the EPA per play (+0.19).<\/p>\n

Nick Folk\u2019s kicking streak of 64 straight Field Goals inside 50 yards ended on Sunday.\u00a0 That was an incredible streak.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Injury Report<\/strong><\/p>\n

New England<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

DID NOT PARTICIPATE<\/strong><\/p>\n

WR Nelson Agholor – Hamstring<\/p>\n

LIMITED PARTICIPATION<\/strong><\/p>\n

DL Christian Barmore – Knee<\/p>\n

WR Kendrick Bourne – Toe<\/p>\n

DL Lawrence Guy – Shoulder<\/p>\n

CB Jonathan Jones – Ankle<\/p>\n

QB Mac Jones – Ankle<\/p>\n

G Mike Onwenu – Ankle<\/p>\n

TE Jonnu Smith \u2013 Ankle<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Chicago<\/strong><\/p>\n

No Injuries to Reports<\/p>\n

I find the Bears having no injuries hard to believe.\u00a0 N\u2019Keal Harry will be back in Foxboro and is listed as a Full Participant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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