{"id":41480,"date":"2022-05-14T11:08:41","date_gmt":"2022-05-14T15:08:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=41480"},"modified":"2022-05-14T11:08:41","modified_gmt":"2022-05-14T15:08:41","slug":"morse-patriots-schedule-analysis-how-i-would-have-drafted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2022\/05\/14\/morse-patriots-schedule-analysis-how-i-would-have-drafted\/","title":{"rendered":"MORSE: Patriots Schedule Analysis, How I Would Have Drafted"},"content":{"rendered":"

Patriots Schedule <\/strong><\/p>\n

The schedule is out and it is brutal.\u00a0 \u00a0The Patriots have 5 Prime Time night games, probably the result of being a playoff team last year.\u00a0 Thanksgiving Eve against the Vikings highlights the schedule. \u00a0\u00a0The Patriots made the playoffs and finished 2nd<\/sup> in the division so they will play the top two teams against the other divisions.\u00a0Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Patriots at 8.5 wins.<\/p>\n

The Strength of Schedule is right in the middle of the league (16).\u00a0 \u00a0That was determined before the schedule came out based upon the winning percentage of their opponents from the previous season.\u00a0 Warren Sharp of NBC Sports Edge https:\/\/www.nbcsportsedge.com\/article\/offseason-research\/who-was-hurt-most-nfl-schedule-release has an excellent and extensive article about who got hurt the most by the schedule.\u00a0 Sharp looks at the days of rest each team gets.\u00a0 The Patriots have a -13 Days rest, 2nd worst in the league.\u00a0 This translates into about a month less rest time than the remainder of the league.\u00a0 The Dolphins on the other hand have one of the most favorable schedules with a +5 Net Rest.\u00a0 The Bills have a +12 Net Rest (like they need it).\u00a0 Another area that hurt the Patriots is that they got no advantage other than rest after their Bye week because their next opponent (NY Jets) also has the same Bye Week.<\/p>\n

Week 1 – They open in Miami again.\u00a0 This is such an unfair advantage for Miami.\u00a0 They will have practiced for 6 weeks in the heat and humidity of South Florida and to ask a Northern team to come down there and play under those conditions is criminal.\u00a0 By the 4th<\/sup> quarter, they will be spent and it will be a cakewalk for the Dolphins.\u00a0 Put that in the loss column.<\/p>\n

Week 2 – It doesn\u2019t get any better in week two having to travel to Pittsburgh.\u00a0 Yeah, they will have a new Quarterback (maybe rookie Kenny Pickett) but I think they will hold with home-field advantage and the Patriots Defense not yet gelled.\u00a0 give the Pats another L.<\/p>\n

Week 3 –\u00a0 This will be the Patriots’ Home Opener with the Baltimore Ravens, at a decent 1:00 start.\u00a0 Baltimore is coming off an injury-filled season that completely derailed any chances of seriously contending in the AFC. With those players — including Lamar Jackson returning.\u00a0\u00a0 The Ravens always play the Pats tough at Gillette and I think they will go down again.<\/p>\n

Week 4 \u2013 Travel to Green Bay for Week 4 tilt with the Packers. \u00a0Aaron Rodgers has re-upped with the Packers, but Green Bay did lose a key piece to its offense when they traded Davante Adams to the\u00a0Raiders. \u00a0They selected WR Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in the draft for immediate impact. Still, they should be one of the favorites in the NFC thanks to the back-to-back MVP still lining up under center. This will be a fun destination for fans that like to travel with the team if they can get tickets.\u00a0 However, another loss is in orders there.<\/p>\n

Week 5 \u2013 Finally, in week 5 the schedule tilts in the Pats’ favor with the Detroit Lions coming to town. \u00a0\u00a0Detroit’s 3-13-1 record doesn’t exactly reflect how competitive this team was in 2021. Dan Campbell’s team was a tough out every single week and have now just added the likes of pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and wideout Jameson Williams.\u00a0 This should be the 1st<\/sup> win for the Patriots.\u00a0 Their schedule is a bit unfair but it is the own doing of the Patriots management.\u00a0 They have weekend dates booked for the stadium the 1st<\/sup> two weeks of September, forcing the Pats on the road.\u00a0 I feel bad for the fans that really enjoy those warm September days for viewing the game and enjoying their tailgates.<\/p>\n

Week 6 – is at Cleveland and is a winnable game.\u00a0 Welcome to Cleveland, Deshaun Watson. The Browns pulled off the blockbuster to land the former\u00a0Texans quarterback, but now the question remains if he’ll see the field or face punishment from the league stemming from his multiple civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct. Put another in the win column.<\/p>\n

Week 7 \u2013 Home vs the Bears Chicago appears to be in a full rebuild as they are rolling out a new GM in Ryan Poles and a new head coach in Matt Eberflus. The roster doesn’t leave much to be desired other than promising second-year quarterback Justin Fields.\u00a0 This should be a victory for the Pats. If the Bears plan to content in 2022, it’ll take a Herculean effort by Fields.\u00a0 Field’s lack of development gives the Patriots another W.<\/p>\n

Week 8 \u2013 At the New York Jets. \u00a0Don’t look now, but the Jets are putting a solid foundation together. They hit a home run at the draft by selecting cornerback “Sauce” Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson and pass rusher Jermaine Johnson in the first round. If Zach Wilson can continue to develop.\u00a0\u00a0 I loved what they did in the draft with those three 1st<\/sup> round picks and top running back Breece Hall in the 2nd<\/sup>.\u00a0 \u00a0These are still the Jets and I think this is a road game the Pats should win.<\/p>\n

Week 9 –\u00a0 Indianapolis Colts at Gillette.\u00a0 A tough home game against an excellent team.\u00a0 The big change in Indianapolis comes under center. After the Carson Wentz experiment went up in flames, they were able to trade him to Washington and eventually acquire Matt Ryan from the Falcons. That addition alone has them as the favorite to win the AFC South and that’s not even mentioning the signing of cornerback Stephon Gilmore.\u00a0The Colts can and will run the ball and the improvement at QB makes Indy a contender.\u00a0 Expect another loss here.<\/p>\n

Week 10 \u2013 BYE \u2013 the bye comes at a good point for the Pats about the midway point of the season.<\/p>\n

Week 11 NY Jets at Gillette \u2013 Both teams are coming off their bye.\u00a0 I expect the Patriots to win at home.\u00a0 Interesting the league scheduled the two teams to play again just three weeks later.<\/p>\n

Week 12 \u2013 A prime time game on Thanksgiving eve at Minnesota. \u00a0I have always felt the Thanksgiving games are an incredible home-field advantage.\u00a0 Minnesota is another team that is under new management as Kevin O’Connell is now manning the sidelines as the head coach. For the most part, it’s the same cast of characters on the roster with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook headlining the offense.\u00a0 Short week and another loss for the Patriots.<\/p>\n

Week 13 \u2013 Thursday Night broadcast by Amazon Prime – Buffalo Bills at Gillette \u2013 The Patriots haven\u2019t done enough to slow down the Bills’ Offense.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0There’s no denying that the Bills are the class of the AFC East at the moment. While the Patriots split with them in the regular season, they were completely shelled in the playoffs truly showing how far apart they really are. Buffalo is the current Super Bowl\u00a0favorite heading into the season and has made some key additions — wideout Jameson Crowder and first-round corner Kairr Elam — to further bolster this already deep roster.\u00a0Put another one in the loss column.<\/p>\n

Week 14 \u2013 At the Arizona Cardinals \u2013 The Cards are coming off their bye week which should make this an even more difficult task.\u00a0 \u00a0To start the season, Arizona will be without star receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season due to a failed PED test.\u00a0 He will be back by the time they play the Patriots.\u00a0 They did acquire former Ravens wideout Marquise Brown at the draft to help cushion that loss. Kyler Murray’s contract has been a point of discussion throughout the offseason, but under the assumption they get that figured out, this will still be one of the tougher offenses in the league.\u00a0 Third of 4 straight Primetime games on Monday night.<\/p>\n

Week 15 – \u00a0At Las Vegas Raiders – Las Vegas has seen an overhaul of the front office and now head coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler are running the show. Not only have the Raiders re-tooled the masthead, but they’ve also dove head-first into the open market, trading for Davante Adams and signing former Patriots pass rusher Chandler Jones to a contract to pair with Maxx Crosby. \u00a0 Tough assignment against what appears to be an improved Raiders team.\u00a0 Very popular away game for those inclined to attend an away game.\u00a0 Fourth Prime Time game in a row for the Pats on this Sunday night clash.\u00a0 Predict another loss.<\/p>\n

Week 16 \u2013 Cincinnati Bengals at Gillette – Cincinnati is coming off a remarkable season in 2021 where they were able to win the AFC and reach Super Bowl LVI.\u00a0 Joe Burrow looks to be among the elite quarterbacks in the conference and will now have a sturdier offensive line in front of him after the front office addressed that area this offseason.\u00a0 Another tough game for the young Pats to overcome.<\/p>\n

Week 17 \u2013 Miami Dolphins at Gillette – The Dolphins roster has had quite the glow-up this offseason. Not only did they surround Tua Tagovailoa with new weapons like Tyreek Hill, but they also got him protection upfront by inking tackle Terron Armstead to a lucrative deal in free agency. While Miami has a revamped roster, it’ll be interesting to see how the team transitions to Mike McDaniel after the firing of Brian Flores.\u00a0\u00a0 If my predictions hold true the Patriots will only be playing for pride here.\u00a0 Put one in the win column.<\/p>\n

Week 18 \u2013 At Buffalo Bills \u2013 The Bills Mafia will love this late-season game in the elements of Buffalo.\u00a0 The game is listed as a possibility for flexing to either Saturday or Sunday, at a time TBD.\u00a0 I doubt this game will mean anything in the standings.\u00a0 Unless the defense vastly improves from last season this will be another loss.<\/p>\n

Given the uncertainty of how the coaching duties will be divided (QB coach, Offensive Coordinator) \u00a0I think this is going to be a rebuilding year.\u00a0 The defense will have quite a few new faces and it will take some time for them to gel.\u00a0 \u00a0Sad to report, I am predicting a 6-11 season.\u00a0 I hope I am wrong.<\/p>\n

Who I Would Have Taken\u00a0 <\/strong>\u00a0I have taken a look at how the draft fell out and I examine the moves the Patriots made.\u00a0 I have the benefit of hindsight and have no knowledge of teams that would have selected players if the Patriots hadn\u2019t made the selections they did.<\/p>\n

Round 1 Pick #21<\/strong> \u2013 I would not have taken Cole Strange in the 1st<\/sup> Round.\u00a0 That\u2019s not to say that I don\u2019t like Strange.\u00a0 Just that they took him a round too early.\u00a0 Funny how leaks of other teams interested in Strange as a second-round possibly come out after the Patriots were criticized for reaching to select Strange.\u00a0 The Patriots, once their top Defensive targets were all taken before pick #29,\u00a0 switched to the next priority and that was OG.\u00a0 I felt a #1 shutdown CB was a much bigger priority.\u00a0 McDuffie was my target but if they had taken Kaiir Elam I would have been happy with him.<\/p>\n

Round 2 Pick #54<\/strong> \u2013 I would not have traded up to 50.\u00a0 I believe the Patriots love Cole Strange and there was a 96% chance he would have been available here.\u00a0 Troy Andersen LB from Montana State was my draft binky and he was available.\u00a0 The Patriots’ coaching staff appears satisfied with the Linebackers they have on the roster.\u00a0 I think that is very short-sighted, especially given the number of Linebackers that are coming off major surgery.\u00a0 The Patriots lost three of their top 5 linebackers from last season.\u00a0 If the Patriots were trying to get more athletic, as evident by their actual selections, Andersen had a 10.0 Relative Athletic Score.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 As for the selection of Tyquan Thornton, he is very athletic but had a slow 3-cone drill time.\u00a0 In previous drafts, the Patriots required their WR to run under 7.00.\u00a0 If that is a change of philosophy, then I would rather have Skyy Moore than Thornton.\u00a0 Interesting that KC selected Moore with the Patriots’ pick at #54.\u00a0 The rumor came out after the draft that Pittsburgh wanted Thornton at pick #52, which is why the Patriots made the move up to #50.\u00a0 If that was the case, given the Steelers’ excellent history of drafting WRs, the Thornton pick bodes well for the Patriots.\u00a0 Who are we getting Bethel Johnson or Robbie Anderson?\u00a0 Thornton has a tendency to drop passes, especially with his small hands.<\/p>\n

Round 3 Pick# 85<\/strong> \u2013 No issues with taking Marcus Jones.\u00a0 They needed a Punt Returner and a better slot corner.\u00a0 I would have no issues taking a 2nd<\/sup> CB so early.<\/p>\n

Round 4 Pick #127<\/strong> \u2013 Pierre Strong RB South Dakota State.\u00a0 I loved this pick as well.\u00a0 I originally had Strong going to the Patriots but had to change my prediction when they made the trade with Houston and they lost a pick.\u00a0 Strong is a very good and underrated pass blocker and if James White is not ready to start the season, as has been suggested, Strong will take over that role.<\/p>\n

Round 5 Pick # 158<\/strong> \u2013 Was a backup QB or backup WR a bigger priority for the Patriots?\u00a0 Since I didn\u2019t take a WR with the 2nd<\/sup> round selection I would have selected Kyle Philips WR UCLA.\u00a0 Philips is a true slot receiver and was one of three WR that had a 3-cone drill under 7.00.\u00a0 I really didn\u2019t have an issue with Zappe, just didn\u2019t see the need for a QB that is a shade over 6\u2019 (6.04).<\/p>\n

Round 6 Pick #183<\/strong> \u2013 I didn\u2019t understand the selection of RB Kevin Harris at #183.\u00a0 Yes, Harris led the SEC in rushing in 2020.\u00a0 A back injury needed surgery and Harris played in pain all of the 2021 season and his stats reflected that.\u00a0 He is a big back at 5\u20199.7\u201d 222lbs.\u00a0 He was projected to run a 4.56 40 but pulled a hamstring in running a 4.62 at his Pro Day.\u00a0 Harris is one of the younger draft picks at 21.5 years old. \u00a0Will he fill the Brandon Bolden role on Special teams?\u00a0 He has good recognition as a runner and pass blocker.\u00a0 Natural receiver with versatility as a route runner.\u00a0 I am not sure Zappe would last until pick #183, but if he did I would have no issue with the Patriots selecting him. In hindsight, the Patriots had determined that Stidham had not progressed and were ready to make a change.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Darrian Beavers LB Cincinnati was taken by the Giants just before the Pats at #182.\u00a0 That is a player I would have liked to see on the Pats.\u00a0 Beavers ran a 6.93 3-cone drill.\u00a0 The next best LB was Malcolm Rodriquez from Oklahoma State.\u00a0 All he did was tackle. His issue is that he is under 6\u2019 tall.\u00a0 He ran a 4.52 40 at the combine despite pulling a hamstring.\u00a0\u00a0 The converted Safety had 408 tackles in his 5 years for the Cowboys.\u00a0 Rodriquez was the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year.\u00a0 He immediately contributes to all 4 Special Teams units and could carve out a Larry Izzo role for himself at a minimum.\u00a0 Compared to former Dolphin LB Zach Thomas.<\/p>\n

Round 6 Pick #200<\/strong> \u2013 I didn\u2019t know a lot about Sam Roberts before the Patriots drafted him, but the DII Defensive Player of the Year intrigues me.\u00a0\u00a0 I don\u2019t have an issue with taking a flyer on him late in the draft.\u00a0 At this point in the draft, the Patriots have probably exhausted their draft board.\u00a0 These last three picks are actually like securing UDFAs by drafting them rather than having to compete for them with other teams.<\/p>\n

Round 6 Pick #210<\/strong> \u00a0– Chasen Hines G LSU\u00a0 No issues\u00a0 He is a massive Left Guard.\u00a0 Has some weight issues, and needs to slim down to be effective in the NFL.<\/p>\n

Round 7 Pick # 245<\/strong> \u2013 Andrew Steuber T Michigan\u00a0 I liked this selection.\u00a0 Michigan\u2019s O-line was selected for the Joe Moore Award for the nation\u2019s Best Offensive Line.\u00a0 Steuber had a lot to do with that.\u00a0 I think a year on the Practice Squad will help him.\u00a0 Some think his lack of athleticism might mean a switch to OG.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Passing of Gino Cappelletti\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

I was saddened by the news of longtime Patriots Radio Analyst and player Gino Cappelletti’s death.\u00a0 The Patriots Hall of Famer was the AFL MVP in 1964, a 5-time All-Star, 4-time 2nd Team All-Star, and Most Seasons Leading the League in Scoring 5 times (tied with Don Hutson and Stephen Gostkowski).\u00a0 Gino belongs in the NFL Hall of Fame and it is a shame that he didn’t live long enough to see that happen.\u00a0 \u00a0At the time of his death, he was 88.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The schedule is out and it is brutal.\u00a0 \u00a0The Patriots have 5 Prime Time night games, probably the result of being a playoff team last year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":34565,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22766],"tags":[22830,23022,44],"class_list":["post-41480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2022-patriots-offseason","tag-2022-patriots-draft","tag-2022-patriots-schedule","tag-new-england-patriots"],"yoast_head":"\nMORSE: Patriots Schedule Analysis, How I Would Have Drafted<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The schedule is out 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