{"id":3937,"date":"2015-12-29T07:00:14","date_gmt":"2015-12-29T12:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=3937"},"modified":"2015-12-29T02:10:46","modified_gmt":"2015-12-29T07:10:46","slug":"nfl-week-17-playoff-picture-and-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2015\/12\/29\/nfl-week-17-playoff-picture-and-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture and Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture<\/strong><\/h1>\n

with Clinching and Elimination Scenarios<\/strong><\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

While many of the top NFL teams such as New England, Seattle, Carolina and Green Bay lost in Week 16, nobody was more negatively affected than Pittsburgh. A shockingly flat performance against an injury-riddled Baltimore team<\/a> that was forced to turn to a recently out-of-work Ryan Mallett as their fourth starting quarterback this season<\/a>, will most likely keep the Steelers out of post-season play. Losses by the Patriots and Panthers prevented those teams from securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but did not drop them in the playoff standings. Seattle’s loss at worse means only the difference between a fifth and sixth seed, and despite the Packers looking abysmal on Sunday night, they are still in the driver’s seat to win the division and claim the number three seed in the NFC.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We know which teams will represent the NFC in the playoffs, but only one of the six slots (Washington, #4) is determined yet. In the AFC there are still eight clubs alive, though one of them – the Indianapolis Colts – needs so very many things to happen they are nothing more than a humorous anecdote. Who knows, maybe Jim Irsay will hang a banner congratulating the team for remaining alive until the final week of the season.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Here is a look at all of the remaining playoff clinching and elimination scenarios, no matter how minute. For the sake of clarity and the attempt to avoid mind-numbing confusion, I have not forgotten – but instead have avoided scenarios involving ties.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture<\/strong><\/h2>\n

1. New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span>
\n12-3 [9-2 conference]
\nClinched AFC East and a first-round bye
\nat Dolphins<\/em>
\n85% chance for #1 seed
\n– Clinch #1 seed with either a win, or a Broncos loss
\n– Drop to #2 seed with a loss, plus Broncos win<\/p>\n

2. Denver Broncos<\/strong><\/span>
\n11-4 [7-4 conference, 3-2 division]
\nClinched playoff spot with Monday night win over Bengals
\nat Chargers<\/em>
\n15% chance for #1 seed; 78% chance for #2; 1% for #3; 6% for wild card
\n– Clinch #1 seed with a win, plus Patriots loss
\n– Clinch #2 seed with a win
\n– Clinch #2 seed with losses by both Bengals and Chiefs
\n– Clinch #3 seed with loss by Chiefs
\n– Clinch #5 seed with loss by Jets
\n– Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a win by Patriots
\n– Eliminated from #2 seed with loss, plus Bengals win
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, plus Chiefs win
\n– Become #6 seed with loss, plus Chiefs win, plus Jets win<\/p>\n

3. Cincinnati Bengals<\/strong><\/span>
\n11-4 [8-3 conference]
\nClinched AFC North and at least #3 seed
\nat Broncos, vs Ravens<\/em>
\n7% chance for #2 seed; 93% chance for #3 seed
\n– Clinch #2 seed with win, plus Broncos loss
\n– Clinch #2 seed with Chiefs win, plus Broncos loss
\n– Become #3 seed with Broncos win
\n– Become #3 seed with Chiefs loss<\/p>\n

4. Houston Texans<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-7 [4-1 division, 6-5 conference]
\nvs Jaguars<\/em>
\n99.9% chance of winning AFC South and #4 seed
\n– Clinch #4 seed with any one of the following: Texans win; Colts lose; Bengals win; Patriots win; Jets win; Chargers win; Saints win; or Steelers lose plus Chiefs win
\n– Eliminated if every single one of the above does not happen<\/p>\n

5. Kansas City Chiefs<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-5 [9-2 conference, 4-1 division]
\nClinched playoff spot; win tiebreaker for #5 seed based on conference record
\nvs Raiders<\/em>
\n5% chance to win division and #3 seed; 82% chance for #5, 13% chance for #6
\n– Clinch #3 seed with win, plus Broncos loss
\n– Clinch #5 seed with either a win, or a Jets loss
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with either a loss, or a Broncos win
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed with both a loss, plus Jets win<\/p>\n

6. New York Jets<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-5 [7-4 conference]
\nNeed to finish with better record than Steelers to make playoffs
\nat Bills<\/em>
\n15% chance for #5 seed, 49% chance for #6 seed, 36% chance for no playoffs
\n– Clinch #5 seed with win, plus Broncos loss
\n– Clinch #5 seed with win, plus Chiefs loss
\n– Clinch #6 seed with win, or Steelers loss
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with loss, plus Steelers win
\n– All other scenarios Jets become #6 seed<\/p>\n

7. Pittsburgh Steelers<\/strong><\/span>
\n9-6 [6-5 conference]
\nHold tiebreaker over Jets based on common games
\nat Browns<\/em>
\n36% chance for #6 seed; 64% chance for no playoffs
\n– Clinch #6 seed with both a win, plus Jets loss
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with either a loss, or Jets win<\/p>\n

10. Indianapolis Colts<\/strong><\/span>
\n7-8 [3-2 division, 5-6 conference]
\nvs Titans<\/em>
\n99.9% chance to miss playoffs
\n– Need ALL of the following to happen:
\nColts beats the Titans, plus
\nTexans lose to Jaguars, plus
\nPatriots lose to Dolphins, plus
\nJets lose to Bills, plus
\nChiefs lose to Raiders, plus
\nSteelers beat Browns, plus
\nBengals lose to Ravens, plus
\nBroncos beat Chargers, plus
\nFalcons beats the Saints<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NFL Week 17 Playoff Picture<\/strong><\/h2>\n

1. Carolina Panthers<\/strong><\/span>
\n14-1 [10-1 conference]
\nClinched NFC South division title and first round bye
\nvs Bucs<\/em>
\n95% chance for becoming the #1 seed, 5% chance for #2 seed
\n– Clinch #1 seed with either a win, or a loss by Cardinals
\n– Drop to #2 seed with loss to Bucs, plus Cardinals win<\/p>\n

2. Arizona Cardinals<\/strong><\/span>
\n13-2 [10-1 conference]
\nClinched NFC West and a first round bye
\nvs Seahawks<\/em>
\n94% chance for a first round bye
\n– Clinch #1 seed with a win over Seahawks, plus loss by Panthers
\n– Become #2 seed with either a loss, or a win by Panthers<\/p>\n

3. Green Bay Packers<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-5 [3-2 division, 7-4 conference]
\nClinched a playoff spot
\nvs Vikings<\/em>
\n61% chance for #3 seed; 39% chance for #5 seed
\n– Clinch NFC North and #3 seed with win over Vikings
\n– Become #5 seed with loss<\/p>\n

4. Washington Redskins<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-7 [7-4 conference]
\nClinched NFC East and are locked into #4 seed
\nat Cowboys<\/em><\/p>\n

5. Minnesota Vikings<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-5 [7-4 conference, 4-1 division]
\nClinched a playoff spot
\nat Packers<\/em>
\nLeapfrogged Seahawks last week with win over Giants and Seattle’s loss to Rams
\n39% chance to win division and #3 seed; 48% chance for #5 seed; 13% for #6 seed
\n– Clinch division and #3 seed with win over Packers
\n– Become #5 seed with loss, plus Seahawks loss
\n– Become #6 seed with loss, plus Seahawks win<\/p>\n

6. Seattle Seahawks<\/strong><\/span>
\n9-6 [6-5 conference]
\nClinched playoff spot; can only be a wild card
\nat Cardinals<\/em>
\n13% chance of being the #5 seed, 87% chance of being the #6 seed
\n– Become #5 seed with win over Cardinals, plus Vikings loss
\n– Become #6 seed with either a loss, or a Vikings win<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While many of the top NFL teams such as New England, Seattle, Carolina and Green Bay lost in Week 16, nobody was more negatively affected than the Pittsburgh Steelers. A shockingly flat performance against an injury-riddled Baltimore team that was forced to start an out-of-work Ryan Mallett at quarterback will most likely keep them out of post-season play. Losses by the Patriots and Panthers prevented those teams from securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but did not drop them in the playoff standings. Seattle’s loss at worse means only the difference between a fifth and sixth seed, and despite the Packers looking abysmal on Sunday night, they are still in the driver’s seat to win the division and claim the number three seed in the NFC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3924,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[185,464,555,253,655,155,324,277,478,278,141,276,656,44,47,470,201,374,169],"class_list":["post-3937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2015-nfl-season","tag-2015-patriots-season","tag-2015-playoff-picture","tag-afc","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-denver-broncos","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfc","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-washington-redskins"],"yoast_head":"\nNFL 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