{"id":3813,"date":"2015-12-23T08:00:20","date_gmt":"2015-12-23T13:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=3813"},"modified":"2015-12-22T23:55:03","modified_gmt":"2015-12-23T04:55:03","slug":"nfl-week-16-playoff-picture-and-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2015\/12\/23\/nfl-week-16-playoff-picture-and-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 16 Playoff Picture and Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>While NFL Week 15 did not do much to the playoff picture other than end the misery for a handful of teams by officially eliminating them from post-season play, it did bring genuine contenders one step closer to clinching scenarios in Week 16. Eighteen teams still have at least a mathematical chance at a playoff spot with two weeks to go; that is surely something that Roger Goodell&#8217;s parity-driven Park Avenue league office that strives for <a href=\"http:\/\/ftw.usatoday.com\/2015\/06\/indianapolis-colts-afc-finalist-banner-2014-pathetic-andrew-luck-deflategate\" target=\"_blank\">participation banners<\/a> is surely proud of.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>For all intents and purposes there are four remaining playoff races: (a) between Cincinnati and Denver for a bye; (b) between Kansas City an Pittsburgh for the number five seed (and the right to play the sorry-ass AFC South champion); (c) between Green Bay and Minnesota for the NFC North and number three seed; and (d) between Washington and Philadelphia for the NFC East title and the right to lose at home to Seattle.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Here is a look at all of the remaining playoff clinching and elimination scenarios, no matter how minute. For the sake of clarity and the attempt to avoid mind-numbing confusion, I have not forgotten but rather have avoided scenarios involving ties.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AFC &#8211; 3 Teams Seeking A First Round Bye<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\" title=\"New England Patriots at PatsFans.com\"><strong>New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n12-2 [9-1 conference]<br \/>\nClinched AFC East and a first-round bye<br \/>\n<em>at Jets, at Dolphins<\/em><br \/>\n94% chance for #1 seed<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch #1 seed with a win<\/p>\n<p>2. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Cincinnati Bengals<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n11-3 [8-2 conference, 4-1 division]<br \/>\nClinched a playoff spot<br \/>\n<em>at Broncos, vs Ravens<\/em><br \/>\n3% chance for #1 seed; 49% for a bye; 97% for #3 or better<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch AFC North and #2 seed with a win over Broncos<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch AFC North and #3 seed with a Steelers loss<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch playoff spot and #5 seed with a Chiefs loss<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #1 seed with loss to Broncos<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #1 seed with win by Patriots<\/p>\n<p>3. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Denver Broncos<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n10-4 [6-4 conference, 3-2 division]<br \/>\nCould be as high as #1 seed or could miss playoffs entirely<br \/>\n<em>vs Bengals, at Chargers<\/em><br \/>\n4% chance for #1 seed; 51% for a bye; 28% for a wild card; 7% to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch AFC West and #3 seed with win over Bengals, plus Chiefs lose to Browns<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch at least #5 seed with win over Bengals, plus both Steelers and Jets lose<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch at least #6 seed with win over Bengals, plus either Steelers or Jets lose<br \/>\n&#8211; Can be #1 seed by winning both remaining games, and Patriots lose both games<br \/>\n&#8211; Can be #2 seed by winning both remaining games<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from AFC West title if KC wins twice and Bronocos lose at least once<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs by losing at least once, and Steelers, Chiefs and Jets all win both games<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AFC South &#8211; #4 Seed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>4. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Houston Texans<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n7-7 [3-1 division, 5-5 conference]<br \/>\n<em>at Titans, vs Jaguars<\/em><br \/>\n93% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 7% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Can clinch AFC South and #4 seed with win, plus Colts loss<\/p>\n<p>10. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Indianapolis Colts<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n6-8 [3-2 division, 4-6 conference]<br \/>\n<em>vs Texans, at Dolphins, vs Titans<\/em><br \/>\n7% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 93% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs with loss to Dolphins, plus Texans win<\/p>\n<p>11. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Jacksonville Jaguars<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n5-9 [2-3 division, 5-6 conference]<br \/>\nJaguars are still in contention for both a playoff spot, or #1 draft pick<br \/>\n<em>at Saints, at Texans<\/em><br \/>\n1% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 99% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs with either a loss, or a Texans win<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AFC &#8211; Wild Cards<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>5. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Kansas City Chiefs<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n9-5 [8-2 conference, 4-1 division]<br \/>\nCurrently hold tiebreaker over Steelers and Jets based on conference record<br \/>\n<em>vs Browns, vs Raiders<\/em><br \/>\nMinute chance for #2 seed; 36% chance to win AFCW &amp; #3 seed; 42% for #5, 17% for #6, 5% for no playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch #5 seed with win, plus Steelers and Jets lose<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch playoff spot with win, plus either Steelers or Jets lose<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #2 seed with loss, or Bengals beat Broncos, or Steelers lose<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, plus Bengals beat Broncos<\/p>\n<p>6. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n9-5 [6-4 conference, 2-2 division]<br \/>\nHold tiebreaker over Jets based on common games<br \/>\n<em>at Ravens, at Browns<\/em><br \/>\nMinute chance for #2 seed; 3% chance to win AFCN &amp; #3 seed; 41% for #5, 46% for #6, 10% for no playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Chance of missing playoffs dropped from 67% two weeks ago to 30% last week to 10% this week<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Jets loss to Patriots<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from AFCN title and #3 seed with either a loss, or a Bengals win<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss, plus Chiefs win, plus Broncos win<\/p>\n<p>7. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>New York Jets<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n9-5 [6-4 conference, 2-2 division]<br \/>\nNeed to finish with better record than either the Chiefs or Steelers<br \/>\n<em>vs Patriots, at Bills<\/em><br \/>\n5% chance for #5 seed, 17% for #6 seed, 78% for no playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Cannot clinch a playoff spot this week<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss, plus a win by the Steelers<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss, plus wins by both the Broncos and Chiefs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs with a loss, plus wins by the Broncos and the Chiefs and the Steelers<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>AFC Teams Looking Ahead To The Draft<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>8. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">6-8 Oakland Raiders<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Chargers, at Chiefs<\/em><br \/>\n9. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">6-8 Buffalo Bills<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Cowboys, vs Jets<\/em><br \/>\n12. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">5-9 Miami Dolphins<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Colts, vs Patriots<\/em><br \/>\n13. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">4-10 Baltimore Ravens<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Steelers, at Bengals<\/em><br \/>\n14. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">4-10 San Diego Chargers<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Raiders, at Broncos<\/em><br \/>\n15. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">3-11 Cleveland Browns<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Chiefs, vs Steelers<\/em><br \/>\n16. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">3-11 Tennessee Titans<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Texans, at Colts<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NFC Contenders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Carolina Panthers<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n14-0 [10-0 conference]<br \/>\nClinched NFC South division title and first round bye<br \/>\n<em>at Falcons, vs Bucs<\/em><br \/>\n99% chance for #1 becoming the #1 seed<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch #1 seed with either a win, or a loss by Cardinals<\/p>\n<p>2. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Arizona Cardinals<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n12-2 [9-1 conference, 4-1 division]<br \/>\nClinched NFC West and at least a #3 seed<br \/>\n<em>vs Packers, vs Seahawks<\/em><br \/>\n94% chance for a first round bye<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch #2 seed with a win over Packers<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #1 seed with either a loss, or a win by Seahawks<\/p>\n<p>3. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Green Bay Packers<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n10-4 [7-3 conference, 3-2 division]<br \/>\nClinched a playoff spot<br \/>\n<em>at Cardinals, vs Vikings<\/em><br \/>\n6% chance for #2 seed; 66% chance to win division; 29% to be #5 seed and 5% to be #6<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch NFC North and #3 seed with a win plus a Vikings loss to Giants<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch at least #5 seed with either a win, or a Seahawks loss<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from first round bye with a loss to Cardinals<\/p>\n<p>5. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Seattle Seahawks<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n9-5 [6-4 conference, 2-2 division]<br \/>\nClinched playoff spot; can only be a wild card<br \/>\n<em>vs Rams, at Cardinals<\/em><br \/>\n62% chance of being the #5 seed, 38% chance of being the #6 seed<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch #5 seed with a win, plus Vikings lose to Giants, plus Packers beat Cardinals<\/p>\n<p>6. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Minnesota Vikings<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n9-5 [6-4 conference, 4-1 division]<br \/>\n<em>vs Giants, at Packers<\/em><br \/>\nCannot get a bye; 34% chance for #3 seed; 10% for #5; 56% for #6; minute chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch playoff spot with either a win, or a Falcons loss, or a Seahawks win<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from division title and #3 seed with both a loss, and a Packers win<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss, plus a Packers win, plus a Seahawks win<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NFC Pretenders (NFC East)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>4. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Washington Redskins<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n7-7 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]<br \/>\nHead-to-head: 1-0 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants<br \/>\n<em>at Eagles, at Cowboys<\/em><br \/>\n60% chance of winning NFC East and #4 seed; 40% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Clinch division and #4 seed with a win over the Eagles<\/p>\n<p>10. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Philadelphia Eagles<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n6-8 [2-2 division, 3-7 conference]<br \/>\nHead-to-head: 0-1 vs Skins, 1-0 vs Giants<br \/>\n<em>vs Redskins, at Giants<\/em><br \/>\n37% chance of winning NFC East and #4 seed; 63% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs with a loss to Washington<br \/>\n&#8211; To win division and make playoffs Eagles must win both remaining games, plus Washington must lose to Dallas<\/p>\n<p>11. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>New York Giants<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n6-8 [2-3 division, 4-6 conference]<br \/>\nHead-to-head: 1-1 vs Skins, 0-1 vs Eagles<br \/>\n<em>at Vikings, vs Eagles<\/em><br \/>\n4% chance of winning NFC East and #4 seed; 96% chance to miss playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated from playoffs with either a loss, or if Washington beats Philly<br \/>\n&#8211; To win division and make playoffs Giants must win both remaining games, plus Washington must lose twice<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>NFC Teams Looking Ahead To The Draft<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>7. <span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>Atlanta Falcons<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n7-7 [4-6 conference, 0-4 division]<br \/>\nOnly team from this group technically alive, but it is time to pull the plug<br \/>\n<em>vs Panthers, vs Saints<\/em><br \/>\n99.9% chance of missing the playoffs<br \/>\n&#8211; Eliminated with either a loss, or a Seahawks win, or a Vikings win<\/p>\n<p>8. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">6-8 St. Louis Rams<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Seahawks, at Niners<\/em><br \/>\n9. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">6-8 Tampa Bay Bucs<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Bears, at Panthers<\/em><br \/>\n12. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">5-9 Detroit Lions<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Niners, at Bears<\/em><br \/>\n13. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">5-9 New Orleans Saints<\/span> &#8211; <em>vs Jaguars, at Falcons<\/em><br \/>\n14. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">5-9 Chicago Bears<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Bucs, vs Lions<\/em><br \/>\n15. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">4-10 San Francisco 49ers<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Lions, vs Rams<\/em><br \/>\n16. <span style=\"color: #000080;\">4-10 Dallas Cowboys<\/span> &#8211; <em>at Bills, vs Redskins<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While NFL Week 15 did not do much to the playoff picture other than end the misery for a handful of teams by officially eliminating them from post-season play, it did bring genuine contenders one step closer to clinching scenarios in Week 16. Eighteen teams still have at least a mathematical chance at a playoff spot with two weeks to go; that is surely something that Roger Goodell&#8217;s parity-driven Park Avenue league office that strives for participation banners is surely proud of.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1685,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,1],"tags":[185,253,254,321,322,323,655,155,324,277,478,278,141,276,656,44,303,47,470,176,706,705,469,379,201,71,374,169],"class_list":["post-3813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-patriots-news","category-uncategorized","tag-2015-nfl-season","tag-afc","tag-afc-east","tag-afc-north","tag-afc-south","tag-afc-west","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-denver-broncos","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfc","tag-nfc-east","tag-nfc-north","tag-nfc-south","tag-nfc-west","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-roger-goodell","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-washington-redskins"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NFL Week 16 Playoff Picture and Scenarios<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Realistically there are four remaining playoff races: Broncos and Bengals for a bye; Chiefs and Steelers for #5 seed and chance to play Houston; NFC East;\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2015\/12\/23\/nfl-week-16-playoff-picture-and-scenarios\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NFL Week 16 Playoff Picture and Scenarios | PatsFans.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Realistically there are four remaining playoff races: Broncos and Bengals for a 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