{"id":3686,"date":"2015-12-18T08:00:50","date_gmt":"2015-12-18T13:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=3686"},"modified":"2015-12-18T02:05:19","modified_gmt":"2015-12-18T07:05:19","slug":"nfl-week-15-playoff-picture-and-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2015\/12\/18\/nfl-week-15-playoff-picture-and-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture and Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture and Scenarios<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Last week the New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> vaulted in to the number one seed in the AFC by virtue of the defensive mastery over the Houston Texans, coupled with losses by the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. When the Miami Dolphins lost to the New York Giants Monday night the Pats also clinched their seventh straight AFC East title. Elsewhere the Arizona Cardinals also clinched a playoff spot and the Carolina Panthers clinched a first-round bye; on the other end of the spectrum six teams joined the Cleveland Browns as being officially eliminated from the playoffs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the AFC there are essentially three playoff races: the Patriots, Bengals and Broncos vying for home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, or at least a first-round bye; the Colts and Texans (and to a lesser extent, the Jaguars as well) playing for the AFC South title and the number four seed; and the Steelers, Chiefs and Texans battling for the wild card spots.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Over in the NFC there are realistically only two playoff races remaining. For all intents and purposes the Panthers will be the number one seed, Arizona number two, and Seattle will claim the number five seed as the top wild card. One of Green Bay and Minnesota will win the NFC North and become the number three seed; they will play at home to the other club, who will become the number six seed. The other playoff race is of course that of the NFC East; one of the Redskins, Giants or Eagles will have to represent that division, even though nobody seems to want it or deserve it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In both conferences the race for the number five seed is nearly as meaningful as getting a first round bye. Both of the number five seeds will most likely be playing against a team with a .500 (or losing record). On the other hand the number six seed will have to go on the road against a ten or eleven-win club.<\/p>\n

Note: for the sake of clarity and to reduce the risk of headaches I have not included any scenarios involving ties.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AFC – #1 Seed and First Round Bye<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. New England Patriots<\/strong><\/span>
\n11-2 [4-0 division, 8-1 conference]
\nClinched AFC East and at least #3 seed
\nvs Titans, at Jets, at Dolphins<\/em>
\n79% chance for #1 seed; 98% chance for a bye
\n– Can clinch at least #2 seed and a first-round bye with a win over Titans, plus Broncos lose to Steelers<\/p>\n

2. Cincinnati Bengals<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-3 [4-1 division, 8-2 conference]
\n2-game division lead over Pittsburgh with 3 to play
\nat 49ers, at Broncos, vs Ravens<\/em>
\n3% chance for #1 seed; 40% for a bye; 98% for #3 or better
\n– Can clinch AFC North and at least #3 seed if Steelers lose to Broncos
\n– Can clinch at least #5 seed with win over 49ers, plus Chiefs lose to Ravens
\n– Can clinch playoff spot with win over 49ers, or Chiefs lose to Ravens, or Jets lose to Cowboys<\/p>\n

3. Denver Broncos<\/strong><\/span>
\n10-3 [3-2 division, 6-3 conference]
\n2-game division lead over Kansas City with 3 to play
\nat Steelers, vs Bengals, at Chargers<\/em>
\n18% chance for #1 seed; 61% for a bye; 88% for #3 or better
\n– Can clinch AFC West and at least #3 seed with win over Steelers, plus Chiefs lose to Ravens
\n– Can clinch at playoff spot and at least #5 seed with win over Steelers, plus Jets lose to Cowboys
\n– Can clinch playoff spot and at least #6 seed with with win over Steelers<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AFC South – #4 Seed<\/strong><\/p>\n

4. Indianapolis Colts<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [3-1 division, 4-5 conference]
\nCurrently tied with Houston; wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head victory
\nvs Texans, at Dolphins, vs Titans<\/em>
\n60% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; 40% chance of missing playoffs
\n– With a win over Texans, the only way Indy would miss the playoffs would be to lose their final two games while Houston wins their last two games<\/p>\n

10. Houston Texans<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [2-1 division, 4-5 conference]
\nNeeds to win Sunday to avoid losing head-to-head tiebreaker with Colts
\nat Colts, at Titans, vs Jaguars<\/em>
\n39% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; >1% chance of being wild card; 61% chance for no playoffs<\/p>\n

11. Jacksonville Jaguars<\/strong><\/span>
\n5-8 [2-3 division, 5-6 conference]
\nVirtually no chance despite only being one game behind
\nvs Falcons, at Saints, at Texans<\/em>
\n1% chance of winning AFCS and #4 seed; >99% chance for no playoffs
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with loss to Falcons, plus Colts beat Texans<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

AFC – Wild Cards<\/strong><\/p>\n

5. Kansas City Chiefs<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-5 [4-1 division, 7-2 conference]
\nCurrently hold tiebreaker over Steelers and Jets based on conference record
\nat Ravens, vs Browns, vs Raiders<\/em>
\n11% chance of winning AFCW and #3 seed; 63% chance of being #5 seed; 7% chance for no playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #1 seed if Patriots win, or if Broncos and Bengals both win
\n– Eliminated from #2 seed with loss to Ravens, or if Patriots and Broncos both win
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss to Ravens, plus Broncos win<\/p>\n

6. New York Jets<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-5 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
\nHold tiebreaker over Steelers based on conference record
\nat Cowboys, vs Patriots, at Bills<\/em>
\n7% chance for #5 seed, 25% for #6 seed, 61% for no playoffs
\n– Wins by Chiefs and Steelers last week dropped Jet playoff chances from 39% to 31%
\n– No clinching or elimination scenarios for Jets this week<\/p>\n

7. Pittsburgh Steelers<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-5 [2-2 division, 5-4 conference]
\nConference records: Chiefs 7-2; Jets 6-4; Steelers 5-4
\nvs Broncos, at Ravens, at Browns<\/em>
\n2% chance of winning AFCN and #3 seed; 25% for #5 seed; 43% for #6; 30% for no playoffs
\n– Chance of missing playoffs dropped from 67% last week to 30% this week
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss to Broncos, or if Bengals beat 49ers<\/p>\n

8. Oakland Raiders<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
\nAll but technically eliminated from playoffs
\nvs Packers, vs Chargers, at Chiefs<\/em>
\n2% chance for wild card, 98% chance for no playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed with loss, plus a win by either Jets or Chiefs or Steelers
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with loss, plus wins by two of Jets\/Chiefs\/Steelers<\/p>\n

9. Buffalo Bills<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [3-2 division, 6-5 conference]
\nAll but technically eliminated from playoffs
\nat Washington, vs Cowboys, vs Jets<\/em>
\n5% chance for wild card, 95% chance for no playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed with loss, or win by Chiefs
\n– Eliminated from #6 seed with loss, plus win by either Steelers or Jets<\/p>\n

AFC teams eliminated from playoffs:<\/span><\/span>
\n5-8 Miami Dolphins – at Chargers, vs Colts, vs Patriots
\n4-9 Baltimore Ravens – vs Chiefs, vs Steelers, at Bengals
\n3-10 San Diego Chargers – vs Dolphins, at Raiders, at Broncos
\n3-10 Cleveland Browns – at Seahawks, at Chiefs, vs Steelers
\n3-10 Tennessee Titans – at Patriots, vs Texans, at Colts<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NFC Contenders<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Carolina Panthers<\/strong><\/span>
\n13-0 [4-0 division, 9-0 conference]
\nClinched NFC South division title and first round bye
\nat Giants, at Falcons, vs Giants<\/em>
\n98% chance for #1 seed; 2% chance of being #2 seed
\n– Clinch #1 seed with a win, plus loss by Cardinals<\/p>\n

2. Arizona Cardinals<\/strong><\/span>
\n11-2 [4-1 division, 8-1 conference]
\nClinched a playoff spot last week
\nHold tiebreaker over Seahawks (39-32 victory at Seattle)
\nat Eagles, vs Packers, vs Seahawks<\/em>
\n92% chance for a bye
\n– Clinch first round bye with win at Eagles, plus Packers lose to Raiders
\n– Clinch division and #3 seed with win, or a Seahawks loss
\n– Clinch at least #5 seed with a loss by either the Vikings or Packers
\n– Eliminated from #1 seed with loss, plus win by Panthers<\/p>\n

3. Green Bay Packers<\/strong><\/span>
\n9-4 [3-2 division, 7-3 conference]
\nHold tiebreaker over Vikings based on Week 11 win at Minnesota
\nat Raiders, at Cardinals, vs Vikings<\/em>
\n8% chance for #2 seed; 58% for #3; 34% for wild card; >1% for no playoffs
\n– Clinch playoff spot and at least #5 seed with win, plus Seahawks loss
\n– Clinch playoff spot with either a win, or a Giants loss, or a Redskins loss
\n– Eliminated from #2 seed with loss, plus Cardinals win<\/p>\n

5. Seattle Seahawks<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-5 [2-2 division, 6-4 conference]
\nMoved up to #5 seed with wins in last two weeks while Vikings lost twice
\nvs Browns, vs Rams, at Cardinals<\/em>
\n>1% chance of winning NFCW; 69% for #5; 29% for #6; 2% for no playoffs
\n– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus a loss by either Giants or Redskins
\n– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Packers win, plus Vikings and Falcons lose
\n– Eliminated from NFCW title and #2 seed if Packers win and Vikings lose
\n– Eliminated from NFCW title and #3 seed with a loss, or if Cardinals win<\/p>\n

6. Minnesota Vikings<\/strong><\/span>
\n8-5 [3-1 division, 5-4 conference]
\nThe Vikes have lost two in a row but are still in good shape to make the playoffs
\nvs Bears, vs Giants, at Packers<\/em>
\ncannot get a bye; 34% chance for #3 seed; 60% for a wild card; 6% for no playoffs
\n– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Falcons lose, plus either Giants or Redskins lose
\n– Clinch playoff spot with win, plus Seahawks lose, plus either Giants or Redskins lose<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NFC East<\/strong><\/p>\n

4. Washington Redskins<\/strong><\/span>
\n5-6 [2-1 division, 5-3 conference]
\nHead-to-head: 1-0 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants, 0-1 vs Cowboys
\nat Bears, vs Bills, at Eagles, at Cowboys<\/em>
\n39% chance of winning NFCE; 60% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win<\/p>\n

9. Philadelphia Eagles<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [2-2 division, 3-6 conference]
\nHead-to-head: 0-1 vs Skins, 1-0 vs Giants, 1-1 vs Cowboys
\nvs Cardinals, vs Redskins, at Giants<\/em>
\n44% chance of winning NFCE; 56% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win<\/p>\n

10. New York Giants<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [2-3 division, 4-5 conference]
\nHead-to-head: 1-1 vs Skins, 0-1 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Cowboys
\nvs Panthers, at Vikings, vs Eagles<\/em>
\n15% chance of winning NFCE; 83% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or Packers win, or Vikings win<\/p>\n

16. Dallas Cowboys<\/strong><\/span>
\n4-9 [3-2 division, 3-8 conference]
\nHead-to-head: 1-0 vs Skins, 1-1 vs Eagles, 1-1 vs Giants
\nvs Jets, at Bills, vs Redskins<\/em>
\n2% chance of winning NFCE; 98% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #3 seed with loss, or two of Redskins\/Eagles\/Cowboys win<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rest of the NFC<\/strong><\/p>\n

7. Atlanta Falcons<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-7 [0-4 division, 4-6 conference]
\nFalcons could lose nine straight to end the season after a 5-0 start
\nat Jaguars, vs Panthers, vs Saints<\/em>
\n99% chance of missing the playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed with a loss
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with loss, plus Vikings win<\/p>\n

10. St. Louis Rams<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-8 [3-1 division, 5-5 conference]
\nThe Rams have not had a winning season since 2003, and Jeff Fisher has not coached a winning team since 2008
\nwon vs Bucs, at Seahawks, at Niners<\/em>
\n99% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
\n– Eliminated from playoffs if both Vikings and Seahawks win<\/p>\n

11. Tampa Bay Bucs<\/strong><\/span>
\n6-8 [3-2 division, 5-5 conference]
\nHey, four more wins than last year was a decent start
\nlost at Rams, vs Bears, at Panthers<\/em>
\n99% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
\n– Eliminated from playoffs if both Vikings and Seahawks win<\/p>\n

12. New Orleans Saints<\/strong><\/span>
\n5-8 [2-3 division, 4-6 conference]
\nOff-season plan: defense, defense, and more defense
\nvs Lions, vs Jaguars, at Falcons<\/em>
\n99% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed if either Vikings or Seahawks win
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss, or if both Vikings and Seahawks win<\/p>\n

13. Chicago Bears<\/strong><\/span>
\n5-8 [2-3 division, 4-6 conference]
\nA 1-6 record at home, including a loss to the Niners? Huh?
\nat Vikings, at Bucs, vs Lions<\/em>
\n99% chance of missing playoffs
\n– Eliminated from #5 seed if Seahawks win
\n– Eliminated from playoffs with a loss to Vikings<\/p>\n

14. Detroit Lions<\/strong><\/span>
\n4-9 [2-3 division, 3-6 conference]
\nJim Caldwell is probably the next head coach to be fired
\nat Saints, vs Niners, at Bears<\/em>
\n– Eliminated from playoffs last week<\/p>\n

15. San Francisco 49ers<\/strong><\/span>
\n4-9 [0-5 division, 3-7 conference]
\n14.5 points per game – pathetic.
\nvs Bengals, at Lions, vs Rams<\/em>
\n– Eliminated from playoffs last week<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In both conferences the race for the number five seed is nearly as meaningful as getting a first round bye. Both of the number five seeds will most likely be playing against a team with a .500 (or losing record). On the other hand the number six seed will have to go on the road against a ten or eleven-win club.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[185,555,253,254,321,322,323,655,422,315,46,155,610,324,325,368,277,375,478,278,141,286,276,45,656,44,116,303,47,470,176,706,705,469,328,379,201,327,468,374,708,707,326,169],"class_list":["post-3686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2015-nfl-season","tag-2015-playoff-picture","tag-afc","tag-afc-east","tag-afc-north","tag-afc-south","tag-afc-west","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-chicago-bears","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-denver-broncos","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfc","tag-nfc-east","tag-nfc-north","tag-nfc-south","tag-nfc-west","tag-oakland-raiders","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-san-diego-chargers","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-st-louis-rams","tag-tampa-bay-bucs","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-washington-redskins"],"yoast_head":"\nNFL 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