{"id":3193,"date":"2015-11-29T18:00:58","date_gmt":"2015-11-29T23:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=3193"},"modified":"2022-08-30T17:11:56","modified_gmt":"2022-08-30T21:11:56","slug":"patriots-at-broncos-stats-odds-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2015\/11\/29\/patriots-at-broncos-stats-odds-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots at Broncos – stats, odds and prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 10-0 New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/span> are on the road this week to face the 8-2 Denver Broncos <\/strong><\/span> in a battle between the longtime original AFL rivals on Sunday night. A victory by the Patriots virtually assures New England of a first round bye, whereas a win by Denver closes the lead in the AFC to just one game over the Bengals and Broncos, with Denver holding the tiebreaker over the Pats.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

When<\/strong><\/span>: Sunday, November 29 at 8:30 pm ET<\/p>\n

Where<\/strong><\/span>: Sports Authority Field, Denver CO<\/p>\n

Television<\/strong>: NBC; announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth<\/p>\n

Weather<\/strong><\/span>: Forecast is for cloudy skies and temperature of about 26\u00b0; 70% chance of snow, about one inch expected; light winds of about 5 mph.<\/p>\n

Odds<\/strong><\/span>: The Patriots opened as 5\u00bd<\/span> point favorites a week ago Thursday, prior to last week’s games. With the news that WR Danny Amendola<\/span> would join Julian Edelman<\/span> on the sideline with an injury, the line quickly dropped down to three points and eventually settled at 2\u00bd<\/span> points in most venues on Sunday. Likewise the point total dropped five points from 47\u00bd<\/span> to 42\u00bd<\/span>, with a few venues at 42<\/span>. Typical money lines have the Patriots -135<\/span> and the Broncos +115<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Head-to-Head Series Record<\/strong><\/span>: Denver is one of a handful of franchises to own a winning record against the Patriots: the Broncos are 25-20 in the regular season and 3-1 in the playoffs versus the Pats. The Patriots have won five of the last six meetings going back to 2011, and New England trounced Denver in the last matchup, 43-21 last November.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Here is a look at how the two teams compare statistically; the numbers reflect an average per game (or per play), rather than aggregate totals. Per-game and per-play stats are used rather than gross totals because that makes the rankings more meaningful, considering some NFL teams have played a different number of games, and because they provide a better context in regards to what to expect in any given game. Numbers in green<\/span> indicate a top-ten ranking.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

New England Patriots Offense versus Denver Broncos Defense<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Scoring:<\/span> Patriots 32.3 (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos 18.3 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yardage:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 412 (3rd)<\/span>; Broncos 284 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

First Downs:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 24.2 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 18.5 (6th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Play:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 6.2 (3rd)<\/span>; Broncos 4.4 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Drive:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 39.2 (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos 26.8 (3rd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Points per Drive:<\/span> Patriots 3.14 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 1.42 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Drive Success Rate:<\/span> Patriots .782 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos .647 (4th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Points per Play:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots .484 (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos .285 (3rd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Touchdowns:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 3.6 (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos 1.9 (3rd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Red Zone Touchdowns:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 2.9 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 1.3 (7th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Red Zone TD Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 64.4% (6th)<\/span>; Broncos 48.2% (6th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Plays per Game:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 66.7 (8th)<\/span>; Broncos 64.3 (16th)<\/p>\n

Third Down Conversions:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 6.0 (5th)<\/span>; Broncos 4.7 (11th)<\/p>\n

Third Down Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 46.5% (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos 34.8% (7th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Punts per Score:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 0.6 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 1.4 (10th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Rushing Yards:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 92.0 (28th); Broncos 93.7 (8th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Rush:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 3.90 (23rd); Broncos 3.51 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Passing Yards:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 320 (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 191 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Pass Attempt:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 8.1 (4th)<\/span>; Broncos 6.2 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Completion Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 66.3% (7th)<\/span>; Broncos 60.8% (9th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Passer Rating:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 107.4 (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos 74.2 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

TD Passes\/Picks: <\/span>Patriots +21 (1st), 25\/4<\/span>; Broncos +2 (2nd), 8\/10<\/span><\/p>\n

Complete Passes:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 27.1 (3rd)<\/span>; Broncos 20.8 (8th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Incomplete Passes:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 13.8 (21st); Broncos 13.4 (15th)<\/p>\n

Quarterback Sacks:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 2.2 (15th); Broncos 3.4 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sack Yardage Lost:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 11.6 (11th); Broncos 21.3 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Denver Broncos Offense versus New England Patriots Defense<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Scoring:<\/span> Broncos 22.2 (18th); Patriots 18.2 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yardage:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 337 (24th); Patriots 341 (14th)<\/p>\n

First Downs:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 18.9 (28th); Patriots 19.9 (15th)<\/p>\n

Yards per Play:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 5.3 (23rd); Patriots 5.2 (9th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Drive:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 29.4 (23rd); Patriots 30.4 (10th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Points per Drive:<\/span> Broncos 1.64 (26th); Patriots 1.60 (5th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Drive Success Rate:<\/span> Broncos .659 (29th); Patriots .684 (12th)<\/p>\n

Points per Play:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos .349 (17th); Patriots .279 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Touchdowns:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 2.3 (22nd); Patriots 2.0 (5th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Red Zone Touchdowns:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 1.2 (26th); Patriots 1.4 (8th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Red Zone TD Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 44.4% (25th); Patriots 51.9% (13th)<\/p>\n

Plays per Game:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 63.7 (20th); Patriots 65.3 (20th)<\/p>\n

Third Down Conversions:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 4.7 (23rd); Patriots 5.5 (18th)<\/p>\n

Third Down Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 34.1% (28th); Patriots 39.6% (19th)<\/p>\n

Punts per Score:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 1.3 (21st); Patriots 1.4 (6th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Rushing Yards:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 94.4 (27th); Patriots 88.8 (3rd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Yards per Rush:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 3.92 (19th); Patriots 3.89 (12th)<\/p>\n

Passing Yards:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 243 (17th); Patriots 253 (21st)<\/p>\n

Yards per Pass Attempt:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 6.9 (22nd); Patriots 7.0 (11th)<\/p>\n

Completion Percentage:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 60.9% (23rd); Patriots 60.6% (8th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Passer Rating:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 72.2 (32nd); Patriots 83.9 (9th)<\/span><\/p>\n

TD Passes\/Picks:<\/span> Broncos -6 (32nd), 12\/18; Patriots -5 (8th), 14\/9<\/span><\/p>\n

Complete Passes:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 22.7 (15th); Patriots 23.8 (24th)<\/p>\n

Incomplete Passes:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 14.6 (26th); Patriots 15.5 (4th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Quarterback Sacks:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 2.3 (17th); Patriots 3.2 (2nd)<\/span><\/p>\n

Sack Yardage Lost:<\/span>\u00a0Broncos 14.6 (15th); Patriots 21.5 (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Turnovers<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Patriot Giveaways:<\/span> 0.8 (2nd)<\/span>; \u00a0Bronco Takeaways:<\/span>\u00a01.9 (5th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Bronco Giveaways:<\/span>\u00a01.9 (25th); Patriot Takeaways:<\/span> 1.4 (17th)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Penalties<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Penalties:<\/span> Patriots 6.9 (15th); Broncos 7.9 (25th)<\/p>\n

Penalty Yards:<\/span> Patriots 65.4 (23rd); Broncos 77.0 (30th)<\/p>\n

Opponent Penalties:<\/span> Patriots 7.5 (9th)<\/span>; Broncos 5.9 (30th)<\/p>\n

Opponent Penalty Yards:<\/span> Patriots 67.3 (10th)<\/span>; Broncos 43.1 (30th)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Football Outsiders Statistics and Rankings<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Team Efficiency: Weighted DVOA:<\/span> Patriots 32.0% (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 12.3% (8th)<\/span><\/p>\n

Team Efficiency: Offense DVOA:<\/span> Patriots 20.8% (2nd)<\/span>; Broncos -16.0% (30th)<\/p>\n

Team Efficiency: Defense DVOA:<\/span> Patriots -4.3% (10th)<\/span>; Broncos -24.2% (1st)<\/span><\/p>\n

Special Teams DVOA:<\/span>\u00a0Patriots 8.7% (1st)<\/span>; Broncos 4.4% (6th)<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 19<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Despite all the injuries and where the game is being played, I’ll still go with Bill Belichick<\/span> over Gary Kubiak<\/span>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is incredible the number of statistical categories that these two teams both rank in the top ten, top five, or best overall in – especially when you compare the Patriot offense versus the Bronco 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