{"id":10443,"date":"2017-02-03T08:44:02","date_gmt":"2017-02-03T13:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=10443"},"modified":"2017-02-03T08:44:02","modified_gmt":"2017-02-03T13:44:02","slug":"patriots-falcons-super-bowl-li-key-matchups-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2017\/02\/03\/patriots-falcons-super-bowl-li-key-matchups-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots – Falcons Super Bowl LI Key Matchups, Prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> are back in the Super Bowl against the Atlanta Falcons from Houston, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m.<\/p>\n

The Patriots reach the mothership for the ninth time in their history, which is the most in NFL history, breaking a tie with the Steelers, Cowboys, and Broncos. The duo of Brady and Belichick reach the big game for the seventh time in 16 seasons with Brady under center.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s game will be broadcast by FOX and can be seen locally on WFXT Channel 25 in Boston. Joe Buck will handle play-by-play duties with Troy Aikman as the color analyst. Erin Andrews and Chris Myers will work the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Cappello.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Patriots<\/strong>\u00a0(16-2) defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship 36-17. Tom Brady was brilliant completing 32 of 42 for 384 yards and three touchdown passes. Chris Hogan had nine catches on 12 targets for 180 yards and two scores.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Falcons <\/strong>(13-5) defeated the Green Bay Packers 44-21 in the NFC Championship. Matt Ryan continued his dominant season, tossing for 392 yards and four touchdowns. Julio Jones had the same stat line as Hogan with nine catches on 12 targets for 180 yards and two scores.<\/p>\n

We here at\u00a0PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0are continuing our \u201cRazor\u2019s Edge\u201d\u00a0column in 2016 to give some quick\u00a0analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.<\/p>\n

Series History:<\/strong>
\nThe Patriots and Falcons are meeting for just the 14 time in their history with New England holding a 7-6 all-time edge. But Tom Brady is undefeated in four games against Atlanta, including a 30-23 win in the Georgia Dome back in 2013. Which was the last time the two teams met.<\/p>\n

Needless to say, there has never been a matchup of this magnitude between the two teams.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor\u2019s Edge.<\/p>\n

First up is the Patriots offense:<\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs Falcons Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots running game was the 7th<\/sup> ranked rushing attack in the league during the season averaging 117.0 yards per game. Using a tandem of LaGarrette Blount and the speedier Dion Lewis between the tackles, they can mix things up effectively and keep the opposing defenses from teeing off on Tom Brady.<\/p>\n

Atlanta was 17th<\/sup> against the run allowing 104.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per rush. They rely on smaller, faster, athletic linebackers to flow to the ball.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to use Lewis early in this one and smashing the ball between the tackles, negating the Atlanta speed advantage and keeping them off-balance. Blount will get his carries but will really be used if more if they can get a lead in the second half and use his size and ability as a closer when the defense gets tired.<\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs Falcons Secondary –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots passing game like their counterparts this week uses a plethora of weapons to keep the opponent on their heels. Tom Brady can spread the ball around to Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, Michael Floyd, tight end Martellus Bennett, as well as running backs Lewis and White.<\/p>\n

Atlanta\u2019s defense was 28th<\/sup> against the pass allowing just under 267 yards per game. They have a young, emerging secondary but will miss veteran CB Desmond Trufant who was placed on IR in November. Vic Beasley led the team and the NFL with 15.5 sacks.<\/p>\n

Look for Josh McDaniels to spread them out and force them to cover everyone. By forcing the linebackers to cover in space, it reduces their effectiveness at flowing to the ball. Lewis and White in the passing game are big factors for the Patriots offense this week.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see who the Falcons matchup with Edelman, the Patriots go-to guy with Gronk on IR. He makes the team go with his short underneath routes and making YAC, yards-after-the-catch. More to that below.<\/p>\n

Next up the Atlanta offense:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Falcons RBs vs NE Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Atlanta
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Atlanta running game runs behind the excellent tandem of Devonta Freeman 1079 yards and 11 touchdowns and Tevin Coleman 520 yards and eight TDs. They were the #5 rushing team in the league with 120.5 yards per game and a gaudy 4.5 yards per rushing attempt.<\/p>\n

The Patriots rush defense in 2016 was outstanding allowing just 88.6 yards per game, third-best in the league. Interior lineman Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine have been excellent at slowing the run at the point of attack and allowing the linebackers, Dont\u2019a Hightower and Elandon Roberts to clean up. The Patriots defense has been a sure tackling team and that helps in limiting yards after contact.<\/p>\n

The Falcons have excellent at getting very positive yardage on first down. They can mix things up and keep their opponents off-balance by using their backs in both the running and passing games. Freeman is the more elusive runner and can make players miss. Coleman is slightly less elusive but has a tremendous burst and exploit a tiny crack in the defense and turn it into a big gain.<\/p>\n

Falcons WRs vs NE Secondary-\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Atlanta
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Falcons passing game was deadly in 2016. Matt Ryan finished with 4944 yards, 38 TDs, and just seven INTs. He completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt.<\/p>\n

Julio Jones (83 catches, 1409 yards, 6 TDs), leads a receiving unit with Mohammed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Aldrick Robinson outside with tight ends Austin Hooper, Levine Toilolo and RBs Freeman and Coleman out of the backfield.<\/p>\n

The Patriots secondary finished the season 12th<\/sup> against the pass and was particularly adept at forcing turnovers down the stretch. They intercepted 12 passes in their last seven games. They\u2019re going to have to get creative with the pass rush this week and mix in the occasional linebacker or safety blitz while dropping others into the passing lanes to take away the hot routes.<\/p>\n

The key here won\u2019t be Jones, although he\u2019ll receive the double team with a corner underneath and a safety over the top. The slowing of the backs out of the backfield has to be the priority this week. Look for the Patriots to use Pat Chung as a linebacker in the big nickel look to cover.<\/p>\n

Special Teams-<\/strong>\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Push<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>The Patriots\u2019 Stephen Gostkowski struggled early this season but was very solid down the stretch, despite missing an extra point in the AFC title game. Punter Ryan Allen has been quite effective at pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line. The return units suffered from turnovers and poor execution most of the year. But with Lewis on the kick return unit and Edelman now at PR, things have solidified.<\/p>\n

Matt Bryant had a very solid season for Atlanta. He was near automatic in field goals making 34 of 37 with the only three misses from beyond 50+ yards. Eric Weems was outstanding as a punt returner, averaging 11.4 yards per return this season. Both teams have good coverage units.<\/p>\n

Next up, who wins and why\u2026<\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/strong>This one should be an instant classic of a Super Bowl matching the two most explosive offenses in the league and two of the most balanced. Here are our keys, from a Patriots perspective for a victory.<\/p>\n

Slow Down the Atlanta Running Backs:<\/strong> The Patriots (as we mentioned above), have to slow down the Falcons\u2019 RBs in both the passing game and the running game if they want to take home trophy #5.<\/p>\n

Pat Chung as a \u201cbig nickel\u201d linebacker will be a key here. Look for them to dust off the Super Bowl XXXVI game plan against Marshall Faulk. Every time a running back goes to the line, they\u2019ll have to hit them and hard and disrupt the flow and rhythm of the passing game. As big a target as Jones is, this offense moves the ball thru the backs who have 2482 yards and 24 TDs between them.<\/p>\n

Win the Red Zone Battles:<\/strong> Atlanta\u2019s offense was excellent in the red zone this season tied with the Patriots at 63%. Their defense, however, was another story. Atlanta allowed opponents to score at a 72% clip while the Patriots had the 8th<\/sup> best Red Zone defense allowing just 50 percent of scores coming from inside the 20.<\/p>\n

With two excellent offenses, this one may come down to who gets a stop or two inside the red zone. Both teams will move the ball, yards aren\u2019t as important as points this week.<\/p>\n

Stay Balanced on Offense, Spread \u2018em and Shred \u2018em:<\/strong> The backs will be key for the Patriots offense this week. Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, and James White will have to run the ball effectively between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield.<\/p>\n

With the Patriots spreading them out, they have a lot of weapons for the young Falcons defense to cover. Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell on the outside must beat single coverage, if Atlanta decides to play zone, Brady will eviscerate them. Look for another trick play or two this week, either a flea flicker or the double pass.<\/p>\n

YAC Most Important for NE This Week:<\/strong> The Patriots passing game thrives on YAC, with 53 percent of their passing yardage coming after the catch, 3rd<\/sup> best in the NFL. YAC is the Achilles Heel of Atlanta\u2019s defense. They\u2019re last in the NFL in allowing YAC with 133 yards per game coming after the catch. Here is where the game should turn and favor New England. Get the short, intermediate throws and make them pay by turning those into solid, big gains.<\/p>\n

This one should be worthy of the name, Super Bowl. But in the end, the Patriots have the better balance between offensive and defense and take home Lombardi Trophy #5. Experience in the big game will play out, Brady and Belichick have been here before and their defense will make just enough stops to take home the win.<\/p>\n

Cue up the duck boats. \u00a0Patriots 33-24<\/strong><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter\u00a0<\/em>@SteveB7SFG<\/a>\u00a0or email me at\u00a0<\/em>stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our\u00a0<\/em>Patriots 4th<\/sup>\u00a0and 2<\/a>\u00a0podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from\u00a0<\/em>PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

YAC is the Achilles Heel of Atlanta\u2019s defense. 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