{"id":10289,"date":"2017-01-20T09:44:09","date_gmt":"2017-01-20T14:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=10289"},"modified":"2017-01-21T08:13:19","modified_gmt":"2017-01-21T13:13:19","slug":"patriots-steelers-afc-championship-game-key-matchups","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2017\/01\/20\/patriots-steelers-afc-championship-game-key-matchups\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots – Steelers AFC Championship Key Matchups"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> head to the AFC Championship Game for a record sixth time in a row and take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Sunday evening at 6:40 p.m.<\/p>\n

The game will be televised by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in Boston. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Phil Simms as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson will work the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The SportsHub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Cappello.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Patriots<\/strong>\u00a0(15-2) defeated the Houston Texans in the Divisional round 34-16 despite not being at their best offensively. The Patriots turned the ball over three times although Dion Lewis set an NFL record with a rushing, receiving and a return for a touchdown. The Patriots defense forced three turnovers with interceptions of Brock Osweiler.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Steelers <\/strong>(13-5) defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round 18-16. The Steelers offense also struggled and failed to score a touchdown relying on six Chris Boswell field goals. The Steelers defense stopped a two-point conversion with seconds left in the game that could have sent it into overtime.<\/p>\n

We here at\u00a0PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0are continuing our \u201cRazor\u2019s Edge\u201d\u00a0column in 2016 to give some quick\u00a0analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.<\/p>\n

Series History:<\/strong>
\nThe Patriots and Steelers meet for the 30th<\/sup> time but just the 10th<\/sup> in Pittsburgh. The Steelers own a 15-14 edge overall in the history between the two teams. However, since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots in 2000, the Patriots have had great success against the Steelers taking 10 of 13.<\/p>\n

In their last meeting, earlier this season the Patriots won 27-16 at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger and had Landry Jones at quarterback. Tom Brady completed 19-26 for 222 yards and LaGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards and two TDs on 24 carries.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor\u2019s Edge.<\/p>\n

First up is the Patriots offense: <\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs Steelers Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots running game was the 7th<\/sup> ranked rushing attack in the league during the season averaging 117.0 yards per game. Using a tandem of LaGarrette Blount and the speedier Dion Lewis between the tackles, they can mix things up effectively and keep the opposing defenses from teeing off on Tom Brady.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh\u2019s run defense improved during the second half of 2016. With the emergence of Ryan Shazier and Bud Dupree at the linebacker position, they were much tougher to run on down the stretch. They allowed 100.0 yards per game on the ground (13th<\/sup>) but were 10-1 when holding opponents under the century mark.<\/p>\n

Look for Josh McDaniels play calling to try to catch the Steelers with their pass rush coming and keeping things mixed up. Lewis and Blount give the Patriots a nice tandem to run between the tackles and stay patient with the running game<\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs Steelers Secondary –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots passing game will miss Rob Gronkowski in this one as he\u2019s traditionally given the Steelers fits. They\u2019ll look to improve their protection as the Texans moved some of their edge players inside and came on A-gap blitzes which were very effective.<\/p>\n

The Pittsburgh pass defense also got better as the season went on. James Harrison and Bud DuPree gave them good bookend pass rushers and the younger players in the secondary, Russ Cockrell, Artie Burns and Sean Davis were creating turnovers. Inside linebackers, Shazier and Lawrence Timmons have played very well down the stretch.<\/p>\n

Tom Brady has always had excellent success against the Steelers, and for this to continue, he\u2019ll rely on Julian Edelman and bothLewis and James White out of the backfield, early in this one. The key from a New England standpoint is to force the linebackers to play in space where they have a bit of an advantage.<\/p>\n

Chris Hogan, Michael Floyd, Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell will face some one-on-one matchups as the Steelers defense will look to take away Edelman. Winning those battles will be a big key to watch as Brady will have some opportunities to go down the field.<\/p>\n

Next up the Pittsburgh offense:<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Steelers RBs vs NE Front Seven –\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge Pittsburgh
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Pittsburgh running game has arguably the best back in the business with LeVeon Bell who rushed for the 5th<\/sup> most yards in the league despite playing in just 12 games this season. Bell rushed for 167 yards against Miami in the Wildcard Round and followed that up with 170 against the Chiefs. Bell\u2019s patience is his best attribute, at times stopping and waiting for a slight crack to burst thru.<\/p>\n

The Patriots were excellent against the run in 2016 allowing just 88.6 yards per game, third-best in the league. Interior lineman Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Vincent Valentine have been outstanding at slowing the run at the point of attack and allowing the linebackers, Dont\u2019a Hightower and Elandon Roberts to clean up. The Patriots defense has been a sure tackling team and that helps in limiting yards after contact.<\/p>\n

The Steelers offensive line is very good upfront. This will be a great matchup of strength in the trenches. The Patriots did a good job of limiting Bell in the running game in Pittsburgh, he ran for 81 on 20 carries. Patience and discipline are the keys for both sides here. The Patriots have to keep gap control or Bell will exploit the tiniest crack for big yardage.<\/p>\n

Steelers WRs vs NE Secondary-\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Steelers will have Roethlisberger for this one and he has a plethora of weapons to throw to. First among them is Antonio Brown, again, arguably the best wide receiver in the business. Brown can break open a game by going deep or taking a short pass and getting yards after the catch.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh also has 2nd<\/sup> year WR Eli Rogers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, TE Jessie James and the ever-dangerous Bell out of the backfield.\u00a0 When the passing offense is clicking, they\u2019re very difficult to stop.<\/p>\n

The Patriots secondary finished the season 12th<\/sup> against the pass and was particularly adept at forcing turnovers down the stretch. They\u2019ve forced 17 in their final six games and the pass rush has become more effective as they\u2019re mixing things up as to where the pass rush is coming from.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to double Brown up and force Roethlisberger to beat them with Rogers. James may be the \u201cX-Factor\u201d here in this game. With the focus on Bell and Brown, Roethlisberger may go to his big TE more in this one much like we saw Heath Miller in years past during big games.<\/p>\n

The Patriots get the slightest edge here because Pittsburgh\u2019s passing offense hasn\u2019t been the same on the road as it has at home. A quick check of Roethlisberger\u2019s numbers shows he completed 160 of 226 passes (70.8%) for 1915 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), with 20 TDs and just 5 INTs for a passer rating of 116.7 at home.<\/p>\n

But on the road, his numbers are 168 of 283 (59.4%) 1904 yards, (6.7 yards per attempt) with 9 TDs and 8 INTs for a passer rating of 78.4. The home field advantage, despite Bill Belichick\u2019s comments early this week, may make a big difference here.<\/p>\n

Special Teams-<\/strong>\u00a0Razor\u2019s Edge New England<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>The Patriots get the slight edge here Stephen Gostkowski shook off his early season struggles and was solid down the stretch. Punter Ryan Allen has been quite effective at pinning opponents inside the 20-yard line. Chris Boswell has been very solid for the Steelers and was outstanding for them last week, nailing six field goals in the win over the Chiefs. Jordan Berry has been solid for the Steelers. But despite the outstanding job at limiting the Chiefs Tyreek Hill last week, Pittsburgh\u2019s coverage units have not been great. The Patriots got a 98-yard kickoff return for a TD from Dion Lewis last week. He also fumbled and no one has fumbled more in the return game than NE \u2026 Stay tuned for some fireworks either way.<\/p>\n

Next up, who wins and why\u2026 <\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/strong>This one has been circled as a possible AFC Championship Game since early September. Many people had these two teams battling it out for the right to go to the Super Bowl. The winner of this game will go to the Super Bowl for the ninth time\u2026most in NFL history. If there is a better barometer for continued excellence, I don\u2019t know it.<\/p>\n

This should be a hard-hitting, physical affair. I would expect the offenses to start slowly and then begin to heat up in the second half as each team makes their offensive adjustments. Some of the keys from a NE perspective that would generate a win:<\/p>\n

Protect the Ball and Don\u2019t Give Roethlisberger a Short Field:<\/strong> The Patriots turned the ball over three times last week. A repeat of that type of week would spell disaster for the Patriots, as they wouldn\u2019t survive that.<\/p>\n

They especially need to be aware of ball security on special teams where every week it seems there is a big return or turnover. I\u2019m sure that point was hammered home by Bill Belichick this week. While there isn\u2019t much that can be done about tipped passes, wrapping up the ball and locking it away is paramount this week.<\/p>\n

On the flip side, generating a turnover or two would go a long way in winning the game as well. They\u2019ve been very good down the stretch at generating turnovers. No better time than Sunday to get a couple more.<\/p>\n

Win the Red Zone Battles:<\/strong> Pittsburgh\u2019s defense was excellent in the red zone this season ranking 4th<\/sup> in the NFL. Their offense, however, was another story. Like their passing game, their red-zone offensive production was vastly different between at home and on the road. At home, they tooled along at 72.4 percent second best in the league. On the road, the Steelers were scoring on just 37 percent of red-zone scoring opportunities which was third worst in the league.<\/p>\n

The Patriots were the 8th<\/sup> best RZ scoring offense in the league and the top one left of the four playoff teams. They were also the 8th<\/sup> ranked RZ defense in the league. It is imperative for the Patriots to score when they get the chances and stop the Steelers in the RZ where they\u2019ve struggled. Last week they scored zero TDs in KC but won because their defense was easily winning the day over the Chiefs offense.<\/p>\n

Stay Balanced on Offense and Use the RBs in the Passing Game:<\/strong> The backs will be key for the Patriots offense this week. Dion Lewis and James White will have to be productive in the running and passing games and in White\u2019s to-do list, be solid in pass protection to keep Brady upright.<\/p>\n

Look for Brady and McDaniels to get those players in space where they can take advantage of their individual matchups and keep the linebackers reacting to them rather than allowing them to dictate.<\/p>\n

Brady has traditionally played well against the Steelers defense, which has changed little from the Dick LeBeau days. Home field advantage is a real thing, despite BB\u2019s objections. Just look at the Steelers offensive numbers on the road.<\/p>\n

This one will go down to the wire between the two best teams in the AFC but the Patriots get the one key stop to get them on their way to Houston. Patriots 31-24<\/strong><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter\u00a0<\/em>@SteveB7SFG<\/a>\u00a0or email me at\u00a0<\/em>stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our\u00a0<\/em>Patriots 4th<\/sup>\u00a0and 2<\/a>\u00a0podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from\u00a0<\/em>PatsFans.com<\/a>\u00a0discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The winner will go to the Super Bowl for the ninth time\u2026most in NFL history. 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