{"id":10190,"date":"2017-01-12T05:45:40","date_gmt":"2017-01-12T10:45:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/?p=10190"},"modified":"2017-01-12T13:37:04","modified_gmt":"2017-01-12T18:37:04","slug":"patriots-texans-divisional-playoffs-keys-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patsfans.com\/patriots\/blog\/2017\/01\/12\/patriots-texans-divisional-playoffs-keys-game\/","title":{"rendered":"Patriots – Texans Divisional Playoffs, Keys to the Game"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New England Patriots<\/strong><\/a> will play the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the 2016 NFL Playoffs from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday night at 8:15 p.m.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s game will be televised by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4 in Boston. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Phil Simms as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson will work the sidelines. The game will also be aired on the Patriots flagship radio station 98.5 The Sports Hub with Bob Socci and Scott Zolak on the call, produced by Marc Capello.<\/p>\n

The Patriots<\/strong> (14-2) were on a bye week after winning the top seed in the AFC. They finished off the regular season by beating the Miami Dolphins 35-14 to finish the season with a perfect 8-0 road record. Now they\u2019re rested and ready to go<\/p>\n

The Texans<\/strong> (10-7) beat the Oakland Raiders 27-14 in the Wild Card game in Houston. Brock Osweiler threw for a touchdown and ran for another and the defense led by Jadeveon Clowney shut down the Raiders offense, holding them to just 203 yards and forced three turnovers.<\/p>\n

We here at PatsFans.com<\/a> are continuing our \u201cRazor\u2019s Edge\u201d column in 2016 to give some quick analysis on some of the key matchups of the game and what you can look for in how the game plays out.<\/p>\n

Series History:<\/strong>
\nThe Patriots and Texans will be meeting for just the 9th<\/sup> time as Houston entered the league in the 2002 season. The Patriots hold a 7-1 advantage in these contests while holding a perfect 4-0 advantage at home, including a 41-28 playoff win over the Texans in 2012.<\/p>\n

The Patriots dominated the Texans 27-0 in Week 3 of the 2016 season with Jacoby Brissett, the Pats rookie 3rd<\/sup> string QB at the helm. The defense shut down and shut out the Texans that night forcing three turnovers while rushing for 185 yards.<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key matchups and who holds the Razor\u2019s Edge.<\/p>\n

First up is the Patriots offense:<\/p>\n

Patriots RBs vs Texans Front Seven – Razor\u2019s Edge Houston
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots running game made big improvements in 2016 and rushed for 117.0 yards a game, good for 7th<\/sup> best in the NFL. LeGarrette Blount had a fantastic season rushing for 1161yards and an NFL-best 18 touchdowns. With Dion Lewis and James White rounding things out, the Pats have a three-headed attack that they can mix things up with.<\/p>\n

The Texans, even without J.J. Watt for most of the season were good at stopping the run. They allowed just 99.7 yards per game, 12th<\/sup> in the NFL. ILB Benardrick McKinney was lauded this week by Bill Belichick this week as one of the better inside backers in the league. He was immense in Week 3 logging 16 tackles. With Clowney and Vince Wilfork as well as Whitney Mercilus and McKinney, the Texans can be tough against the run.<\/p>\n

This will be a week where the Patriots set up the running game by using the short passing game to get them untracked. They\u2019ll mix things up and try to keep the Texans defense off-balance. Blount and Lewis will still get plenty of carries and the Patriots will want Blount for the second half, where if things go according to plan, they\u2019ll use him as the closer.<\/p>\n

Patriots WRs vs Texans Secondary – Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>The Patriots passing game was clicking as soon as Brady came back from his suspension in Week 5. They have a plethora of weapons, even without Rob Gronkowski and now get Danny Amendola back healthy for the playoffs. Julian Edelman is the guy who does the dirty work down low and across the middle and is Brady\u2019s go-to guy. He caught 98 passes for 1106 yards.<\/p>\n

Houston has the #2 pass defense in the league allowing just 201.6 yards per game. They can bring pressure with Clowney, Mercilus and McKinney and have a good secondary with Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson, and A.J. Bouye at the corners.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to make the Texans linebackers play in space by using the running backs White and Lewis as well as TE Martellus Bennett in forcing them into mismatches. Edelman, Amendola, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and newcomer Michael Floyd give Brady the deepest WR core he\u2019s had since he\u2019s been with the Pats.<\/p>\n

The key as always is Brady\u2019s protection, Clowney will line up most against Nate Solder and it will be interesting to see if he can handle the big man one-on-one. Houston DC Romeo Crennel will try to show one look pre-snap and shift to another after the snap to confuse Brady. Crennel may move Clowney around a bit, trying to find a mismatch, similar to what they do with Watt.<\/p>\n

This is a good pass defense but the Patriots passing game has too many weapons for the Texans to cover. Someone will get open, and it is going to be up to Brady to find them and keep the chains moving.<\/p>\n

Next up the Houston offense:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Texans RBs vs NE Front Seven – Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>Lamar Miller is the workhorse for the Texans running game. He\u2019s healthy after missing the final two regular-season games and carried 31 times last week in the win over Oakland. He gained 1073 yards on the season with five touchdowns and the Texans averaged 116.2 yards per game, good for 8th<\/sup> in the league.<\/p>\n

The Patriots had the 3rd<\/sup> best rushing defense in 2016 allowing just 88.6 yards per game. Alan Branch, Malcom Brown, and Vincent Valentine were very solid up front stopping the run at the point of attack allowing the linebackers, especially Dont\u2019a Hightower to clean up and making plays.<\/p>\n

This is the key to the game from a Texans perspective, they need Miller to have a big game and keep the pressure off their very limited passing game. If they keep the third downs to manageable levels, they\u2019ll have a puncher\u2019s chance. If they get in frequent third and long situations, it will be a long evening.<\/p>\n

Texans WRs vs NE Secondary- Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em><\/strong>Brock Osweiler was supposed to be the Houston franchise QB. They signed him to a big $72 million dollar contract this spring but things haven\u2019t worked out. He struggled and was benched for Tom Savage. But a concussion has brought him back to the starter\u2019s slot and he played well last week against the Raiders.<\/p>\n

He has a great weapon in DeAndre Hopkins who is Houston\u2019s leading receiver with 78 catches for 954 yards and 4 TDs in 2016. With injuries to other WRs, the production for speedster Will Fuller dropped off late in the season. Osweiler has two good tight ends in C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin who each had 50 catches this year.<\/p>\n

The Patriots secondary play improved over the second half of the season, and they\u2019ll look to throw different schemes at Osweiler to confuse him and make him throw an ill-advised pass or two into contested lanes. Houston was 29th<\/sup> in passing yards this season averaging just 198.5 yards per game.<\/p>\n

The Patriots will try to bracket Hopkins with a corner and safety help over the top. Osweiler\u2019s best bet is to try to work the underneath routes to the two tight ends and not to force the issue with Hopkins. Turnovers are key here as New England forced 14 during the last six weeks of the season. Houston averaged just 17.4 points per game, they can ill-afford to be giving Tom Brady and the Pats offense a short field.<\/p>\n

Special Teams-<\/strong> Razor\u2019s Edge New England
\n<\/em>The Patriots\u2019 Stephen Gostkowski shook off a shaky start to the season to finish strong down the stretch hitting on 27 of 32 field goals on the season. Ryan Allen had a solid season averaging net 41.7 yards per punt and put 23 of them inside the 20-yard line with just five touchbacks.<\/p>\n

Houston\u2019s coverage units were awful in 2015, which is why they hired former Patriots STs maven Larry Izzo as their ST\u2019s Coordinator. They continued to struggle during the season and their punt and kickoff coverage units ranked 28th<\/sup> and 29th<\/sup> respectively. Shane Lechler had a good season punting the ball and Kicker Nick Novak had 127 points, 2nd<\/sup> highest of his career, hitting on 35 of 41 field goal attempts including 3 of 6 from 50+ yards.<\/p>\n

Next up, who wins and why\u2026<\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/strong>This is where we\u2019re supposed to join in on the chorus forewarning you not to overlook the Texans and that they\u2019re a different team than the unit that got ripped up in Week 3. We\u2019re supposed to point to the 2010 Divisional game against the Jets where the Pats were shocked at home just about six weeks after demolishing the Jets in NY.<\/p>\n

You can buy into that if you care to, but the bottom line is this. The Patriots are a much better team than Houston and a loss here would be a choke job of epic proportions.<\/p>\n

Houston does have a good defense but they\u2019ve faced teams that can run and faced ones that can pass, but they haven\u2019t faced many that can do both as well as New England. The keys to the game from a Patriots perspective are:<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t Turn the Ball Over: <\/strong>Houston is a very limited offensive team, especially in the passing game. Don\u2019t make their job any easier by handing them a short field and letting their offense get some easy points.<\/p>\n

Start Quickly and Put Pressure on them to Keep Up: <\/strong>Brady and the Patriots have the ability to score quickly and often and getting off to a quick start is a great way of putting pressure on both Houston\u2019s defense as well as their offense.<\/p>\n

Stop Miller in the Running Game and Force the Ball into Osweiler\u2019s Hands: <\/strong>This has been the Patriots M.O. for several weeks and they\u2019ve held five of their final six opponents to under 75 yards rushing. If they make the Texans one-dimensional on offense, the battle is already half-won.<\/p>\n

Look for the Patriots to try to keep the offense balanced but passing to set up the run this week. Brady will compensate for that pass rush by getting the ball out quickly to his short-area receivers, Edelman and Amendola to get the chains moving. Hogan and Floyd should have a big impact on this week\u2019s game as they\u2019ll chip away with the short stuff and look for them in the home run play. The backs and tight ends are key in not only pass protection but in creating mismatches as well.<\/p>\n

The defense may opt to come after Osweiler, who although he has a depleted wide receiver position also got excellent protection last week against the well-heralded Oakland pass rush. Can Osweiler find lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row?<\/p>\n

We say no. New England holds serve at home as Brady has a big game throwing the short stuff underneath setting up the big plays and the running game. The defense steps up, slows the running game down and forces Osweiler into making bad throws.\u00a0Patriots 34-13<\/strong><\/p>\n

Follow me on Twitter <\/em>@SteveB7SFG<\/em><\/a> or email me at <\/em>stevebpatsfans@gmail.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Listen to our <\/em>Patriots 4th<\/sup> and 2<\/em><\/a> podcasts on blog talk radio as the writers Russ Goldman, Derek Havens and I from <\/em>PatsFans.com<\/em><\/a> discuss the latest Patriots news Wednesdays at 12 noon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is where we\u2019re supposed to join in on the chorus forewarning you not to overlook the Texans and that they\u2019re a different team than the unit than Week 3<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":3549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1198,11],"tags":[784,1296,800,1168,279,598,1297,599,18,665,204,154,278,16,1299,14,17,24,63,15,930,44,70,8,117,663,1298,13,35,1167,1165],"class_list":["post-10190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl-commentary","category-patriots-commentary","tag-2016-nfl-playoffs","tag-2016-patriots-playoffs","tag-2016-patriots-season","tag-benardrick-mckinney","tag-bill-obrien","tag-brock-osweiler","tag-c-j-fiedorowicz","tag-chris-hogan","tag-danny-amendola","tag-deandre-hopkins","tag-dion-lewis","tag-donta-hightower","tag-houston-texans","tag-jabaal-sheard","tag-jadaveon-clowney","tag-jimmy-garoppolo","tag-julian-edelman","tag-lagarrette-blount","tag-lamar-miller","tag-malcolm-butler","tag-martellus-bennett","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-nfl","tag-patriots","tag-rob-gronkowski","tag-romeo-crennel","tag-ryan-griffin","tag-tom-brady","tag-trey-flowers","tag-whitney-mercilus","tag-will-fuller"],"yoast_head":"\nPatriots - 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