Moss
seems to have been a slight aberration, especially when taken in context along with also scoring Welker in the same off-season. Guys like Dante Stallworth couldn't get a catch, and other guys couldn't get on the field. That was pre-Gronk.
Think catch-o-nomics here.
What we know of Brady is that he excels in:
1) Awareness
2) Accuracy
3) Decision-making (perhaps the same as (1))
This provides the high likelihood of scoring on any given drive, given a dependable level of talent; with Gronk there you have at least one "receiver" with an outlier talent level.
Think 2007: Would adding Gronk have made us better? Sure. More options. Safer options on some plays for the same outcome (e.g., a 50-yard-rainbow to Moss, or a 20 yard catch + 30 yard run by Gronk.) But
how much better? What if Gronk costs 16M a year on that team, for example? Or cut it down to 10M a year... who else do we kick off the 2007 team to make that work?
Think catches: what marginal benefit would we get, at present, from a big-name, big-contract deep threat?
Compare that with the benefit you get if you have a weaker QB, who nevertheless has a decent arm to throw the long ball. The ridiculous WR
can be paired with the ridiculously effective passer, even in modern cap circumstances - again, Brady + Moss = scary. Then you
also had Welker, and you
could add Gronk all at the same time (if the eras overlapped more - I mean the moral equivalent of Gronk, I guess, which really doesn't exist.) So you can get the embarrassment of riches situation, where you can achieve "untoppable" upside/stats, but it's a big investment to get to that level from the level we're already seeing.
I think all the recent attention to the defense and the trenches tells you that the thinking is, "Brady can throw 25 TDs and 10 INTs to Curly, Larry, and Moe, if that's what we've got. Put the money where you're getting the best upside." What's the ROI in excess of present ROI, if you add this blue chip receiver to the Pats? What's the ROI in excess of present ROI if you give the guy to Andy Dalton? Adriel Jeremiah Green, you would still be ridiculous... but you would be sharing looks with Gronk and Edelmensch rather than Mohamad Sanu and Jermaine Gresham.
So
in most cases, the market is going to dictate higher numbers for this character, the blue-chip wideout, than it makes sense for the Pats to pay.
In 2007, to flesh this out, we landed two guys for next to nothing who dominated the league in catches and TDs, respectively. We knew who we were going after (and now, after the fact, we know what the results were.) But we also knew what
value they represented.
Now that I have posted this, since I am always wrong, the completely unexpected pickup will suddenly materialize, and I will bloviate about what a good deal it was.
Aren't you glad I'm around to predict disappointing results?
