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What Should We Expect From A Draft?

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mgteich

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I think in general people overestimate what to expect from a draft. You should expect to get on average one quality starter and 2/3 decent role players in my view. Our best drafts of the last decade were 2010 and 2012.
By this measure, 2022 was also one of the best. We have the two starters, and a high-quality backup (Stevenson). Perkins or McGrone should make a total of four solid contributors.

I agree that 3 solid contributors may be a more "normal" expectation.
 

Patriot Missile

Pro Bowl Player
Not sure what to expect tbh. Definitely see some holes that can be filled. As long as its the best player at the position they select and not some wtf pick I’m sure we’ll be pleased. WR, DL, LB, LT, Cb or guard seem to be the obvious choice. Don’t think they can go wrong by trading down either. But like Ivan mentioned, it depends on who is available at 21.
 

mgteich

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Not sure what to expect tbh. Definitely see some holes that can be filled. As long as its the best player at the position they select and not some wtf pick I’m sure we’ll be pleased. WR, DL, LB, LT, Cb or guard seem to be the obvious choice. Don’t think they can go wrong by trading down either. But like Ivan mentioned, it depends on who is available at 21.
I'm not at all sure that "we'll be pleased" no matter who is picked. There are always complaints, many of them.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
I think the structure of the Parker trade tells us that Belichick wants to maximize this draft. There’s a lot of talent in the first three rounds and hopefully the get the most out of it.
 

chasa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
unlikely we draft a high WR now.

I imagine the picks are all defense and O linemen.
 

zipster9

In the Starting Line-Up
I like Devin Lloyd, LB in 1st round. If not available, pickup Christian Harris (AL) in 3rd round.
PLEASE DO NOT DRAFT A CB in 1st or 2nd round...
 

Zuma

Special Teams Only Poster
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With The Wolf and Groh providing more input during the draft…I’m ok with forgoing my worry about drafting WR, CB and SS in the 1st 2 rounds. I believe things are different now.
 
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VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
2015 brought Flowers and Mason, two quality starters, plus a solid player in Malcolm Brown. Then the last few years have been bad. McCourty, and maybe Gronk (but even he got eased in) were the only ones who really popped in year one, although Jones and Hightower were solid.

You had me going until Malcolm Brown. For a 1st round pick I don't feel he was ever worth the selection, maybe as a 4th or 5th round selection.

There's a reason New England never gave him the 5th year extension. He's a JAG, nothing more. Pretty big miss of a 1st round pick.

At least with Sony Michel, although it was a whiff on a 1st round pick compared to taking say Nick Chubb instead who is miles better, at least we were able to get a 4th and 6th round pick when we traded him away, so there's that.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
You had me going until Malcolm Brown. For a 1st round pick I don't feel he was ever worth the selection, maybe as a 4th or 5th round selection.

There's a reason New England never gave him the 5th year extension. He's a JAG, nothing more. Pretty big miss of a 1st round pick.

At least with Sony Michel, although it was a whiff on a 1st round pick compared to taking say Nick Chubb instead who is miles better, at least we were able to get a 4th and 6th round pick when we traded him away, so there's that.

Sony wasn’t a great pick, but he was a big piece of their last Lombardi.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
unlikely we draft a high WR now.

I imagine the picks are all defense and O linemen.

I’m fine with a number of players and positions at #21, but I think that the price of free agent WR’s is so high now that Belichick may spend more draft capital for cost control at the position. Fortunately they will have good opportunities on the first two days of the draft to get a really good WR.
 

Kasmir

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
You had me going until Malcolm Brown. For a 1st round pick I don't feel he was ever worth the selection, maybe as a 4th or 5th round selection.

There's a reason New England never gave him the 5th year extension. He's a JAG, nothing more. Pretty big miss of a 1st round pick.

At least with Sony Michel, although it was a whiff on a 1st round pick compared to taking say Nick Chubb instead who is miles better, at least we were able to get a 4th and 6th round pick when we traded him away, so there's that.
Malcolm Brown is a multi-year starter (17 GS last year at JAX). Nothing great, but a lot more than a 4th or 5th round value -- and he was the 32nd pick.

Sony has been an occasional starter ands obviously played well as a rookie. A disappointment as a 1st rounder, but hardly a whiff, especially as pick #31. And with any player, you can't discount their actual contributions and value them only by their trade value.

In this year as most years, picks at the low end of the 1st round aren't materially better than picks in the 2nd round. The only picks Belichick has had for the Pats in the top half of the 1st round are Seymour, Mayo, and Mac. Not bad.
 

40yrpatsfan

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I’m fine with a number of players and positions at #21, but I think that the price of free agent WR’s is so high now that Belichick may spend more draft capital for cost control at the position. Fortunately they will have good opportunities on the first two days of the draft to get a really good WR.
It does feel that way, we need a young stud WR on a rookie contract, and this is probably the year to do it. Same with CB. We'll have our choice at 21, but not so sure at 54. This could be a motivator to trade down to low 1st round for a 3rd rounder, take one of these targets in the late 20's, and use the extra 3rd rounder to move up in the 2nd round to around 37-43 to get the 2nd guy.
 

40yrpatsfan

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Malcolm Brown is a multi-year starter (17 GS last year at JAX). Nothing great, but a lot more than a 4th or 5th round value -- and he was the 32nd pick.

Sony has been an occasional starter ands obviously played well as a rookie. A disappointment as a 1st rounder, but hardly a whiff, especially as pick #31. And with any player, you can't discount their actual contributions and value them only by their trade value.

In this year as most years, picks at the low end of the 1st round aren't materially better than picks in the 2nd round. The only picks Belichick has had for the Pats in the top half of the 1st round are Seymour, Mayo, and Mac. Not bad.
Also Vince and Daniel Graham at 21.
 

Kasmir

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Also Vince and Daniel Graham at 21.
I was just listing the top half 1st round picks, which is where all the value is. According to generic draft value charts, 3/4 of the 1st round draft value is in the first 15 picks. Half is in the first 10 picks. Picks 31 and 32 are basically 2nd round picks. The first pick overall is worth the 1st 5 picks in the 2nd round combined!
 

nextsuperstar

On the Game Day Roster
i agree Brown was a solid if unspectacular first round pick. A solid starter is a fine thing to get from a late first rounder.
 

50-yard-line

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
You had me going until Malcolm Brown. For a 1st round pick I don't feel he was ever worth the selection, maybe as a 4th or 5th round selection.

There's a reason New England never gave him the 5th year extension. He's a JAG, nothing more. Pretty big miss of a 1st round pick.

At least with Sony Michel, although it was a whiff on a 1st round pick compared to taking say Nick Chubb instead who is miles better, at least we were able to get a 4th and 6th round pick when we traded him away, so there's that.
Brown wasn't a miss at 32. He covered a lot of snaps in the four-year run for the second dynasty. He's had a solid career. I don't know what people expect at 32 (and in a class that was weak at DT), but that kind of multi-year contributor is what you hope for. And not a lot of 1st picks who aren't QBs or WRs get extended.

Michel...I still don't get the hate. Really don't. It's certainly not justified by the stats, particularly that first year, when he was a machine through the playoff run, breaking records, and particularly since he was a rare bird in Patriot land: an RB who started and played the bellcow role for the team in his rookie year.

He did that because he had something most college RBs don't have: the ability to protect the passer (Brady). He also gained over 900 yards his first 2 seasons (plus a few hundred and a bunch of TDs in that first playoff run), and even in his injured last season here, he averaged 5.7 a carry for almost 500 yards.

Sure, Najee Harris had 1200 this year, where Michel "only" had 931 his rookie year...but Harris had 100 more carries and averaged 3.9/per, where Michel was 4.5/per.

Again, I really wish people would separate the "first round" by halves. Picking 17-32 is very different than 1-16, or thereabouts...
 

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