Yeah, no one truly knows. Could have been that scouts were wrong; could have been that he improved. Probably somewhere in between. But the fact is, scouting reports are often wrong in a big way. How many scouts said Gronkowski has all-pro talent, let alone Hall of Fame? We’re talking about the most physically gifted dual TE the game has ever seen, and I remember a collective groan as the team passed on Sergio Kindle.
Richard Sherman, fifth round; Antonio Brown, sixth round. You could write a very long list of players, and I'm only including a couple that come to mind because when you watch them play (in their primes), you wonder how scouts can overlook their upside.
Meanwhile, there wasn't just one scouting report on Brady, even though that's often cited. I'm sure you can always find scouts who were really high on one guy, but just some that come to mind:
- Dick Rebhein (well documented)
- Whitey Walsh (Giants scout...article in NY Post about how he wanted Brady)
- Matt Cavanaugh (Ravens...badly wanted Brady)
- Jesse Kaye (Jets...also pushed for Brady)
- Mike Riley (Chargers...pushed GM to draft Brady but was overruled)
- Bill Polian (yeah, I'm joking here, but it's not a stretch to think others thought higher of Brady than one infamous scouting report)
I think these are the real points:
- His arm strength certainly didn't wow anyone, even though his actual arm strength and ability to drive the ball downfield seems perfectly fine when watching his college games. Clearly it improved with training and especially with mechanics, but I think that oft-cited report is pretty ridiculous. Also of note: Chad Pennington was the first QB drafted, and his lack of arm strength is well documented.
- He came out of Michigan at a time when they had Drew Henson, the physical marvel, and Brian Griese had recently been drafted as well. The idea that Michigan's system/talent led to success would be a reasonable line of thinking.
- The NFL was still in the dual-threat QB craze. Check out the 1999 draft from the year before. Not to say teams didn't want an immobile pocket passer, but they favored the mobile types, especially if the passing skills were comparable.