We're Waiting For The Big News - On OFFENSE

[zimmy]

They drafted Garcia with the intention of letting Solder go Imo. But Garcia's illness has meant they may have to overpay to keep him. Ideally they can sign him to a short deal - 2 years, but I fear someone will make Solder an offer and blow him away.

Personally, I sense a shock trade on offense. Could see Cooks or Gronk getting traded.

I don't care that we only just traded for Cooks - BB is all about value and Cooks is going to likely ask for a contract not commensurate with his play. He had a solid first year but he's going to want to get paid. Comparable players are Davante Adams ($14.5m a year), Alshon Jeffrey ($13m a year), TY Hilton ($13m a year). I just don't see Bill giving that kind of money out to a guy who had some problems catching the ball last year. You could have Edelman, Amendola, Dorsett under contract with millions to spare for the same amount. Maybe Cooks plays out the season and they evaluate next spring, but I could also see a Chandler Jones style trade, where it was clear that they weren't going to pay him $17m a year so got what they could in a trade.

 

[oceansizer]

Sad but true. Sooner than later Cooks is going to demand his money and we won't be able to pay him 13 or 14 mln. $ per season. Ok, he showed some sparks, some great attitude but he knows his value and the fact that NFL is a business. It is a right moment to think what is best for the team. Either let Cooks play one more year for us or to trade him and get something in exchange. If BB thinks Cooks is just another guy, ok make a move.I like the guy but I think he is replaceable and our Wr corp with Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Dorsett, Dola and maybe Britt is ok. Mostly concerns me defense issues and keeping together our OL.

 

[luuked]

They drafted Garcia with the intention of letting Solder go Imo. But Garcia's illness has meant they may have to overpay to keep him. Ideally they can sign him to a short deal - 2 years, but I fear someone will make Solder an offer and blow him away.

Personally, I sense a shock trade on offense. Could see Cooks or Gronk getting traded.

I don't care that we only just traded for Cooks - BB is all about value and Cooks is going to likely ask for a contract not commensurate with his play. He had a solid first year but he's going to want to get paid. Comparable players are Davante Adams ($14.5m a year), Alshon Jeffrey ($13m a year), TY Hilton ($13m a year). I just don't see Bill giving that kind of money out to a guy who had some problems catching the ball last year. You could have Edelman, Amendola, Dorsett under contract with millions to spare for the same amount. Maybe Cooks plays out the season and they evaluate next spring, but I could also see a Chandler Jones style trade, where it was clear that they weren't going to pay him $17m a year so got what they could in a trade.

Sad but true. Sooner than later Cooks is going to demand his money and we won't be able to pay him 13 or 14 mln. $ per season. Ok, he showed some sparks, some great attitude but he knows his value and the fact that NFL is a business. It is a right moment to think what is best for the team. Either let Cooks play one more year for us or to trade him and get something in exchange. If BB thinks Cooks is just another guy, ok make a move.I like the guy but I think he is replaceable and our Wr corp with Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Dorsett, Dola and maybe Britt is ok. Mostly concerns me defense issues and keeping together our OL.

It is interesting that people keep projecting their crazy expectations of Cooks onto the staff and think that just because they are disappointed the team must be as well. You have a player that by all reports is loved for his work ethic, how he absorbed the playbook and trusted by Brady.

By all accounts he is exactly who the team wanted him to be. Whether he gets an extension or not is a different story but there is no scenario in which the best interest of the team is to trade him for another lottery shot at a rookie WR who in the best scenario will take at least another year to get where Cooks is now.

If Cooks is not deemed to have enough value for a typical WR contract then Dorsett is already on the roster who can be a Cooks light for cheap.

And finally lets keep the age of the WRs in mind here. Edelman, Dola and Hogan will be over 30. Especially the first two are closer to being done than to their prime. Unless you want a 2013-style reset with a couple of young unproven guys when Brady becomes 43 or 44 you need to start rejuvenating that group and that happens in the best case in a staggered way and not all at once.

 

[oceansizer]

Unfortunatelly 12-13 mln. $ per season aren't crazy expectations and superstars earnings but the value of WR like Adams or Hilton ( good WRs). The advantage and disadvantage at the same time is Cook's age. He is still young and knows that many teams will give him that amount of money or even more. I am not questioning his attitude, his work ethic and I assume he likes so much being a Patriot.
Of course rebuilding idea and looking for another suitable WR in the draft or FA is risky but the main question is what is Cooks role in the eyes of BB.

 

[luuked]

Unfortunatelly 12-13 mln. $ per season aren't crazy expectations and superstars earnings but the value of WR like Adams or Hilton ( good WRs). The advantage and disadvantage at the same time is Cook's age. He is still young and knows that many teams will give him that amount of money or even more. I am not questioning his attitude, his work ethic and I assume he likes so much being a Patriot.
Of course rebuilding idea and looking for another suitable WR in the draft or FA is risky but the main question is what is Cooks role in the eyes of BB.

I think a lot of people need to get used to the fact that with a rising cap 12-13m are not as outrageous and reserved for elite WRs as it used to be just a few years ago. We are slowly pushing into 20m territory for elite receivers.

 

[zimmy]

It is interesting that people keep projecting their crazy expectations of Cooks onto the staff and think that just because they are disappointed the team must be as well. You have a player that by all reports is loved for his work ethic, how he absorbed the playbook and trusted by Brady.

By all accounts he is exactly who the team wanted him to be. Whether he gets an extension or not is a different story but there is no scenario in which the best interest of the team is to trade him for another lottery shot at a rookie WR who in the best scenario will take at least another year to get where Cooks is now.

If Cooks is not deemed to have enough value for a typical WR contract then Dorsett is already on the roster who can be a Cooks light for cheap.

And finally lets keep the age of the WRs in mind here. Edelman, Dola and Hogan will be over 30. Especially the first two are closer to being done than to their prime. Unless you want a 2013-style reset with a couple of young unproven guys when Brady becomes 43 or 44 you need to start rejuvenating that group and that happens in the best case in a staggered way and not all at once.

I'm not projecting anything - and I don't have crazy expectations. Edelman, Amendola and Hogan are all loved for their work ethics, have absorbed there playbook and trusted by Brady too and all make less than $4m a year on average. I'm simply asking whether Bill will see the value in paying Cooks what the open market suggests he is worth. Age of the WRs is relevant, but I don't think a determining factor if you decide it might be worth moving on. We've never been a team to spend big on a WR, bar a couple of years of Moss. I personally think it would be strange for Cooks to be the man we break the bank for after the various receivers who have come through here.

There is clearly a scenario where its in the best interests of the team to trade him. Anyone who says not is being disingenuous. If you could recoup a 2nd round pick for him that could be reinvested in the defence or on your future QB. The money saved ($8.5m this year, and the potential future contract) could also be used in free agency to strengthen another position.

 

[luuked]

There is clearly a scenario where its in the best interests of the team to trade him. Anyone who says not is being disingenuous.

You are being naive (or just stupid) if you dont think all of this has been carefully considered before they made the trade. Sending him away now only makes sense if you dont think he was worth the pick in the first place which he already clearly proved to be. Your mistake is looking at him at a 8.5m cap hit when the correct way to do it is to look at his contract (and value) as a whole ( as Lombardi has stated multiple times).

Draft picks are overrated if you cant attach a player to that pick. Until you can find someone who can replicate his role on the team it is not in the best interest of the team to just move on.

 

[Ivan]

I'm not projecting anything - and I don't have crazy expectations. Edelman, Amendola and Hogan are all loved for their work ethics, have absorbed there playbook and trusted by Brady too and all make less than $4m a year on average. I'm simply asking whether Bill will see the value in paying Cooks what the open market suggests he is worth. Age of the WRs is relevant, but I don't think a determining factor if you decide it might be worth moving on. We've never been a team to spend big on a WR, bar a couple of years of Moss. I personally think it would be strange for Cooks to be the man we break the bank for after the various receivers who have come through here.

There is clearly a scenario where its in the best interests of the team to trade him. Anyone who says not is being disingenuous. If you could recoup a 2nd round pick for him that could be reinvested in the defence or on your future QB. The money saved ($8.5m this year, and the potential future contract) could also be used in free agency to strengthen another position.

Weakening this years team for a 2nd round pick isn’t “ clearly in the interests” of this team. Edelman is coming off a really bad knee injury and Gronk is questionable. Getting rid of your best receiver in the hopes a 2nd round pick will pan out someday is a crapshoot. Now if that pick is top 40 then you consider it, but only if you really believe this draft is strong enough to get you a really good prospect. Even then, however, I’m not sure I would want to make the move.

 

[stinkypete]

You are being naive (or just stupid) if you dont think all of this has been carefully considered before they made the trade. Sending him away now only makes sense if you dont think he was worth the pick in the first place which he already clearly proved to be. Your mistake is looking at him at a 8.5m cap hit when the correct way to do it is to look at his contract (and value) as a whole ( as Lombardi has stated multiple times).

Draft picks are overrated if you cant attach a player to that pick. Until you can find someone who can replicate his role on the team it is not in the best interest of the team to just move on.

The problem isn't Cooks being a $8.5m cap hit in 2018. That is outstanding value. The problem is that the team, looking ahead, needs to extend or replace Mason, Thuney, Flowers, Brown, Gronk, Chung, McCourty, Hogan, and Van Noy - on top of Cooks - during the next two offseasons.

If Mitchell's knee is viable and Dorsett is regarded as highly as rumored, it makes sense from a value perspective to trade Cooks if we can get reasonable value.

As for the rest of the offense. I think Solder is gone, and the team plans to move on with Croston, Fleming and Garcia (health permitting) competing. This will have us very upset during the first few weeks of the season if Brady gets beat up and the team drops an early game to the Jets or something. Still, we've learned that no name OTs who have been raised in Scar's system can step in and be servicable.

Bennett's release leads me to believe that Gronk is coming back, at least for 2018. TE is a very realistic option in the draft, unless the team thinks Hollister can be a regular. I suspect that Allen remains on the team.

Lewis is gone. Somebody is going to pay him $7 million and run him into the ground. I think Burkhead will return for a similar salary, and another no frills free agent will be brought in on the cheap.

 

[luuked]

The problem isn't Cooks being a $8.5m cap hit in 2018. That is outstanding value. The problem is that the team, looking ahead, needs to extend or replace Mason, Thuney, Flowers, Brown, Gronk, Chung, McCourty, Hogan, and Van Noy - on top of Cooks - during the next two offseasons.

This was true a season ago and most certainly considered when they traded for Cooks. So there is nothing new here.

If Mitchell's knee is viable and Dorsett is regarded as highly as rumored, it makes sense from a value perspective to trade Cooks if we can get reasonable value.

You wont know any of this until after camp. So it is a pointless discussion because we dont have the hindsight necessary now to know if Dorsett jumps into Bradys circle of friends and/or MM makes it through camp ok.

As for the rest of the offense. I think Solder is gone, and the team plans to move on with Croston, Fleming and Garcia (health permitting) competing. This will have us very upset during the first few weeks of the season if Brady gets beat up and the team drops an early game to the Jets or something. Still, we've learned that no name OTs who have been raised in Scar's system can step in and be servicable.

LT is the second most important position on offense. If someone offers him crazy money (15m+) then he is a goner otherwise I just dont see how it is a good idea to go into camp with nobody who has a proven track record of playing LT at a competent level. This one is out of the hands of the team though as the market will ultimately decide what will happen.

 

[zimmy]

You are being naive (or just stupid) if you dont think all of this has been carefully considered before they made the trade. Sending him away now only makes sense if you dont think he was worth the pick in the first place which he already clearly proved to be. Your mistake is looking at him at a 8.5m cap hit when the correct way to do it is to look at his contract (and value) as a whole ( as Lombardi has stated multiple times).

Draft picks are overrated if you cant attach a player to that pick. Until you can find someone who can replicate his role on the team it is not in the best interest of the team to just move on.

Let's just agree to disagree. You can't take back what has been done. We traded a 1st for him. What you have to do is evaluate his production and where he fits in your team going forward. If you don't think that matches with the sort of contract it will require to keep him, you look at other options.

Your mistake is that you are simply thinking about his role. You need to look at the whole team. What is the best use of your resources to put the best team possible on the field. It might be that the contract you potentially give him could be used to resign Flowers/Mason etc to long term deals. By signing Cooks, you may need to let one of them walk next year. By trading him now, you could use the cap space to re-sign Solder and/or Lewis or get a guy like Sherman/Talib to strengthen the D etc.

You don't need to replicate his role - if you trade him, you simply mould your offense it fit the players you have. And I don't see what your point is about draft picks - BB has clearly studied the draft prospects and would know what sort of player he can get in return. Equally the pick could be traded for a veteran player.

 

[Ivan]

I think those claiming “ Solder is gone” are grossly underestimating the importance of Solder to Brady’s well being, and how much influence Scarnnechia has with Belichick. They can afford to pay Solder and it should be a priority. I also believe that Solder realizes how much the Patriots have stood by him, and will take that into consideration when making his decision. That doesn’t mean he will take 10 when others are offering 15 per, but it does mean they can reach common ground in a fair deal.

 

[luuked]

Your mistake is that you are simply thinking about his role. You need to look at the whole team. What is the best use of your resources to put the best team possible on the field. It might be that the contract you potentially give him could be used to resign Flowers/Mason etc to long term deals.

Except this is not how it works. Cooks future extension has absolutely nothing to do with our capability of keeping any of those players. To suggest that you must also think that the front office are amateurs who dont think seasons ahead, cant project the cap space growth or have no clue how to structure contracts properly. We are not the 2013 Saints that just randomly push contracts off down the line but make deals thinking sometimes even 5 years ahead (look at the Gronk deal). All of the players you have mentioned coming to the end of their rookie deals have been part of the equation when Cooks was acquired. If whatever Cooks wants fits into how the Patriots are valueing him then he will get that money.

Again.. (successful) teams dont think year-to-year but seasons ahead before they make moves.

You don't need to replicate his role - if you trade him, you simply mould your offense it fit the players you have.

Of course you do. Otherwise you will have again others teams flooding the middle of the field and our offense will again stutter. That was the entire reason why we got Cooks and Dorsett in the first place. You can try to scheme around this as much as you want but we have seen the script play out again and again in the last decade.

And I don't see what your point is about draft picks - BB has clearly studied the draft prospects and would know what sort of player he can get in return. Equally the pick could be traded for a veteran player.

BB is no magician and the draft remains a total crapshoot for everyone. Every team studies draft prospects and thinks they know what they can get in return only for the player to turn into a Richards (who plays much slower than his athletic profile would indicate) or a Dobson (who got totally derailed by injuries). This was the entire fundamental point of trading for Cooks in the first place. Give up cost control but reduce risk of player projection being off because you have actual tape at NFL level.


What it boils down to is that you are seemingly disappointed by Cooks season and think a second round pick is better value than another full season of him. Because guess what ? No matter how much cap space we will have next year.. if a player prices himself out of the evaluated range he will not get his contract here. And it doesnt matter if we are sitting on 20m or 80m of cap space.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Which teams in the first round are looking for wr help? Cooks's a proven player who just put up 1000 yards in a system that's hard on wrs. I wouldn't deal him for a second rounder considering the age we have at wr.

 

[maineman209]

Comparable players are Davante Adams ($14.5m a year), Alshon Jeffrey ($13m a year), TY Hilton ($13m a year). I just don't see Bill giving that kind of money out to a guy who had some problems catching the ball last year.

COOKS' CONTRACT/PRODUCTION COMPARISONS

The subject of Cooks' production versus market value has been discussed at length in many different threads, with many posters offering "comps" to various other WRs and their contracts, most often without actually citing any numbers. It seems to me that, if we're going to go the "comp" route, we ought to at least try to be reasonably thorough.

So, here's a sample list of "top" WRs, their current contract APYs, and comparable average production stats for their three seasons prior to signing their current contracts. I've also included the 3-season average production stats for a few WRs who will be signing their second contracts this year (soon), the numbers for which may help to determine Cooks' market value.

The list is organized as follows:

PLAYER (age at signing), last three seasons prior to signing, APY
... 3-year average production in receptions, yds, TD's, catch rate, YPC


The list is sorted in descending order by avg yds/season:

*** OBJ (25) 2014-2016 (IR'd in 2017) _____?
... 96r .. 1,374y .. 11.7 TDs .. 63.0% .. 14.3 ypc

Green (27) 2012-2014, $15.0M:
... 88r .. 1,272y .. 9.3 TDs .. 57.5% .. 14.5 ypc

Hopkins (25) 2014-2016, $16.2M:
... 88r .. 1,228y .. 7.0 TDs .. 56.4% .. 13.9 ypc

*** Evans (24) 2015-2017 _____?
... 71r .. 1,176y .. 6.7 TDs .. 52.7% .. 14.1 ypc

*** Cooks (25) 2015-2017 _____?
... 76r .. 1,131y .. 8.0 TDs .. 63.0% .. 14.9 ypc

Julio Jones (26) 2012-2014, $14.25M:
... 75r .. 1,124y .. 6.0 TDs .. 64.0% .. 15.0 ypc

Hilton (26) 2012-2014, $13.0M:
... 71r .. 1,096y .. 6.3 TDs .. 59.4% .. 15.4 ypc

*** Landry (25) 2015-2017 _____?
... 105r .. 1,093y .. 5.7 TDs .. 69.0% .. 7.2 ypc

*** Cooks (24) - 2017 ONLY _____?
... 65r .. 1,082y .. 7.0 TD .. 57.0% .. 16.6 ypc

*** Robinson (24) 2014-2016 (IR'd in 2017) _____?
... 67r .. 943y .. 7.3 TDs .. 52.5% .. 14.1 ypc

Jeffrey (28) 2015-2017, $13.0M:
... 54r .. 806y .. 5.0 TDs .. 52.9% .. 14.8 ypc

Adams (25) 2015-2017, $14.5M:
... 66r .. 788y .. 7.7 TDs .. 59.9% .. 11.9 ypc

*** Watkins (24) 2015-2017 _____?
... 42r .. 690y .. 6.3 TDs .. 58.3% .. 16.3 ypc

NOTE #1: Since both OBJ and Allen Robinson were IR'd for virtually the entire 2017 season, to make a fairer comp, I used the average of their three previous (healthy) seasons.

NOTE #2: Even though their 3-year productions averages are significantly lower, the newly-minted APYs for Adams and Jeffrey are equal to or greater than the APYs for Hilton and Julio Jones on contracts signed three "cap-years" ago - when the cap was 20% lower than it is today. This demonstrates how the NFL pay scale for WRs has increased from top to bottom, and supports the hypothesis that WR APYs are likely to continue to increase over the term of contracts that are signed this season.

IOW, Hilton's $13M APY put him among the top-5 WRs back in 2015. However, entering 2018, subsequent contract have nearly pushed him out of the top-10. By the time Evans, Robinson and Landry sign their new long term deals, Hilton's APY likely will be outside the top-10. So, it's reasonable to project that a newly-minted $14M APY (top-5 this season) will be outside the top-10 long before that contract runs its course.

NOTE #3: Cooks' 3-year average production significantly exceeds that of both Adams and Jeffrey in most categories, so they're not really good "comps". In terms of production averages, Hilton is much closer, but his APY isn't a good comp for a contract Cooks might sign this season, since the WR pay scale has increased by such a significant percentage since then.

NOTE#4: While Cooks may have "had some problems catching the ball" in 2017, his catch rate was still higher than the averages for Jeffrey, Evans and Hopkins, while his ypc was the highest on the list.

 

[Trycked]

I haven’t seen a Josh Gordon thread in a while so how about trading Cooks for Gordon?

 

[Hyped]

13.5 annually? That would make him the highest paid left tackle. I don't think he should be paid that type of money even though he did play well down the stretch.

He is the ONLY viable LT on the market unless we want to talk about someone like Branden Albert or re-signing Waddle. I think he'll get A LOT of action in the market because other teams will look at it like a double whammy...they get a OT and the Pats get weaker. 13.5M gets him back in the fold no questions asked.

Good news though...he was doing a visit at a school or a hospital just last week and was photographed with a Patriots sweater on....that appears to show that he is at least thinking of staying in Foxboro.

 

[oceansizer]

Maybe the Pats sweater was the only clean outfit he's found in his bedroom.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

He is the ONLY viable LT on the market unless we want to talk about someone like Branden Albert or re-signing Waddle. I think he'll get A LOT of action in the market because other teams will look at it like a double whammy...they get a OT and the Pats get weaker. 13.5M gets him back in the fold no questions asked.

Good news though...he was doing a visit at a school or a hospital just last week and was photographed with a Patriots sweater on....that appears to show that he is at least thinking of staying in Foxboro.

One of those teams is here in New York. The giants. Wouldn't shock me if they went after him.

 

[Uptown]

NFC Rumors: Eagles, Falcons, Seahawks, Vikings | NFLTradeRumors.co