We'll See Where We Are At The Half

[mgteich]

One game at a time for the players

On the other hand, posters speculate and look forward. With our schedule, we will have lots of time for BB to experiment as he does in the first half of each season.

1) Over the rest of the first half, BUF at 17 is the only team with a power ranking lower than 22 (NYJ). Game 9 is against BALT, and then the bye.

2) Watson will be back well before the half; we can then decide on how many TE's to keep.

3) After the bye, we will have Harry, Cajuste and Meredith available, if they are ready. We could have another IR to return.

4) We are likely to have lots and lots of roster changes. I expect to see a couple of trades, plus the usual churning of the bottom of the roster.

5) I suspect that our under and over for the first half is 6.5 wins and 1.5 losses.

As I said, the players will play one game at a time, but we get to speculate.

I see two challenges: health and the putting together an OL for the 2nd half of the season.

 

[BTTA]

Assuming that Brady doesn't get suspended because of the lawsuit against Brown, I'll be really disappointed if the Pats lose any of the first 8 games. But yeah, stuff happens as you point out.

 

[shmessy]

Also, Harry can return for game #9 in Baltimore right before the bye.........

 

[luuked]

5) I suspect that our under and over for the first half is 6.5 wins and 1.5 losses.

Who are we going to lose to in those first 8 games ? The Browns at home ?

I get saying 0.5 losses because something can always go wrong but anything but 8:0 or 7:1 would be extremely surprising. Realistically, at Ravens might end up being a nice pre BYE test against a team that might sniff a wildcard if things go their way.

Honestly the first real test I see on the schedule is the game in Philly right after the BYE.

 

[Hyped]

One thing I LOVE about our schedule is that we will be done with 3 AFC East opponents by week 4 with TWO of them on the road. Then we play the Skins and the Giants....then a roadie to the Jets....

(Knocks on wood) If we start 7-0....I think we are shoo in for a BYE at MINIMUM. We would be 5-0 in the conference and 4-0 in the division with 2 late season division games at home and these remaining AFC games: CLE, @BAL, @HOU, KC, @CIN....I can't see us doing worse than 5-2 for our remaining AFC games should we start 5-0 in the conference. And the remaining NFC games would be @Philly and Dallas...a split at worst...

13-3 is looking likely to me at this point....

But of course, things always can change.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

4) We are likely to have lots and lots of roster changes. I expect to see a couple of trades, plus the usual churning of the bottom of the roster.

If/when a trade occurs, he will most likely be an obscure player.
Remember Kyle Van Noy?

 

[mgteich]

It is simply a matter of arithmetic. If we are a 9-1 favorite going into every game, how likely do you think it is to be 8-0? The answer is 46%. So, it would take all of the games to average 9-1 favorites for .5 to be approximately the right under and over odds.

Who are we going to lose to in those first 8 games ? The Browns at home ?

I get saying 0.5 losses because something can always go wrong but anything but 8:0 or 7:1 would be extremely surprising. Realistically, at Ravens might end up being a nice pre BYE test against a team that might sniff a wildcard if things go their way.

Honestly the first real test I see on the schedule is the game in Philly right after the BYE.

 

[Brick27]

Hopeful for 8-0
Confident in 7-1
Could live with 6-2

 

[luuked]

It is simply a matter of arithmetic. If we are a 9-1 favorite going into every game, how likely do you think it is to be 8-0? The answer is 46%. So, it would take all of the games to average 9-1 favorites for .5 to be approximately the right under and over odds.

I get the statistical point of view. I just disagree with the odds.

Anything below 7-1 would be extremely disappointing given the cup cake schedule.

 

[SBLIII]

I expect 7-1 for the first 8 games with 1 wtf loss.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

It is simply a matter of arithmetic. If we are a 9-1 favorite going into every game, how likely do you think it is to be 8-0? The answer is 46%. So, it would take all of the games to average 9-1 favorites for .5 to be approximately the right under and over odds.

never really understood odds / probability, what is the math to get 46% likely to go 8-0? Thanks

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

Redskins or Browns are the only ones where I can see the potential of an upset in the first half.

The other ones I’m honestly not too concerned about. The schedule makers honestly did us a big favour out the gate here. Lots of lower tier teams that let us work out the kinks before we get to that second half of the season with a lot of strong opponents.

 

[Brick27]

never really understood odds / probability, what is the math to get 46% likely to go 8-0? Thanks

Not sure where that 90% odds of winning each given game came from, but if using that to determine winning all 8 it’d be 0.9^8 = 43%.

 

[Uptown]

Redskins or Browns are the only ones where I can see the potential of an upset in the first half.

The other ones I’m honestly not too concerned about. The schedule makers honestly did us a big favour out the gate here. Lots of lower tier teams that let us work out the kinks before we get to that second half of the season with a lot of strong opponents.

Lol we ain’t losing to the Skins bruh.

 

[Doctor DDS]

Schedule looks favorable but every year there are numerous close games including some against "weaker" teams that can be a loss if things fall the wrong way (like Dolphins last year) so I am not expecting undefeated at the half way mark. That said, this team has every opportunity to put together a 14-2 type season.

 

[borg]

20-0
Bill forfeits the bye

 

[NormZauchin]

Lol we ain’t losing to the Skins bruh.

Yes. FedEx Field will be packed with Pats fans. It will be more like a home game.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure where that 90% odds of winning each given game came from, but if using that to determine winning all 8 it’d be 0.9^8 = 43%.

I just chose a very high percentage to prove the point. Actual odds for each game may be significantly lower for some games.

 

[goheels22002]

We're on to Miami. The Patriots owe them one in South Beach.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Not sure where that 90% odds of winning each given game came from, but if using that to determine winning all 8 it’d be 0.9^8 = 43%.

Thanks