Turnovers

[PatsFaninAZ]

I think turnovers really are an underreported part of this year. Patriots lead not only in takeaway/giveaway, but also significantly lead the lead in giveaways. They have 10, one of which was by the back up QB during garbage time. So, call it 9.

For all the talk about various stats, offensive production, time of possession, red zone efficiency, weather, etc., you rarely hear the talking heads talk about turnovers, even though, year over year, there are few more significant statistical predictors of whether a team will win or lose a game.

This team is, clearly, good enough to overcome a negative turnover differential. That said, this is still the national parity league, and when the playoffs come around and you're talking about the best playing the best, the stats really get lopsided. You don't really see teams win in January despite tunover imbalance.

There is a chicken-or-egg quality to turnovers. Is our success this year partly explained by the fact that we turn it over less than once a game? Or do we turn it over less than once a game because we are such a good team otherwise? The answer is probably a little bit of both. Clearly, you turn it over less when you're ahead. That said, we had zero turnovers in both the Ravens and Eagles games. (Well, ok, we technically had one in the Ravens game, but it was turned back to us on the same play.) If we had had even a single turnover in either game, we lose, I believe. Similarly, in the colts game, turnovers were even 2-2. I don't think you can say with as much definitiveness that we definitely would have lost if we had one more, but I wouldn't have liked our chances if it had been a -1. In the Cowboys game, the game was uncomfortable for a while because of a turnover, and there was a critical period during the second and third quarters where, if we had turned it over, we very well could have lost, despite the somewhat misleading 21-point final score difference.

In short, I'd say that's three, and arguably four, games where the single most important stat was turnovers, and our offense's ability to protect the ball. Conversely, our defense has consistently put points on the board. I think in at least 8 and maybe 9 games we've had a defensive touchdown, and many more points off turnovers.

If the team wins the next three games, with a few more TD completions between Brady and Moss, this most significant memories of the season will probably always be Brady and Moss setting records, blowouts, and "running up the score" on teams like the Bills or Skins. But I think you could make a compelling case that the most compelling factor making the team 13-0 at this point is it's ability to protect the ball. Indy has 16 turnovers. If we had 16 instead of 10, you could very much see us being in a tooth and nail battle for top seed in the AFC in week 14.

 

[Wildo7]

what's the record for fewest turnovers in a season?

 

[bradmahn]

what's the record for fewest turnovers in a season?

Twelve, by 1982 Kansas City Chiefs.

 

[Metaphors]

I'm glad you started this thread since I've thought this wasn't mentioned enough. Brady's number are just silly so they need no further comment...but the Pats have only lost 4 fumbles all year. 3 by Brady and 1 by Hobbs on ST. That's it. No receivers or backs have put the ball on the turf the entire year! While they have had a little of the dropsies lately, that level of ball security is fantastic.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Look no further than here to get your turnover related stats: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=640

We Want Zeroes, Not Heroes
That number 3 sure looks nifty in the TD column the day after the game. But the number you really want to see in the quarterback’s box score – at least if you value winning – is a big fat "0" next to the letters "INT."

We looked at every single playoff game – all 356 – in the Super Bowl Era. Now, every football fan knows that there is a direct correlation between turnovers and losses. The more you turn the ball over, the more likely you are to lose. But they may not know that it’s actually more important not to throw INTs than it is to throw TDs.
Teams that toss more TD passes than their opponents have won 189 playoff games to just 55 losses (.775 winning percentage).
Teams that toss fewer interceptions than their playoff opponents have won 239 games to just 48 losses (.833 winning percentage).
The breaking point seems to be two INTs. If you throw fewer than two INTs, your odds of winning are fairly strong. But once a quarterback throws that second interception, his odds of winning drop dramatically.
Teams that toss fewer than two INTs have gone 293-141 (.675) in the postseason during the Super Bowl Era.
Teams that toss two or more INTs have gone 63-215 (.227) in the postseason during the Super Bowl Era.
Here’s a breakdown of how teams have fared in the postseason based on the number of INTs they’ve thrown:

INTs Record Winning % 
 0  166-44   .790 
 1  127-97   .567 
 2  48-103   .318 
 3  14-73    .161 
 4  1-26     .037 
 5  0-10     .000 
 6  0-3      .000

Only one team in the Super Bowl Era has managed to win after tossing more than three INTs in a playoff game. That team was the 1981 Bills, who earned a 31-27 wildcard victory over the N.Y. Jets. But there’s a very good reason why the Bills were able to overcome this dreadful four-INT performance by Joe Ferguson: Jets quarterback Richard Todd also tossed four INTs that day.

 

[mgcolby]

Great post and I have been thinking about this a lot lately. When you figure last year during the streak of 2-5 turnovers per game mid season.(week 8-14 we had 21 turnovers). We suffered 3 of our 4 losses, the Jets by a FG and the Colts by a TD after turning it over 5 times (-3 in dif for the game). We also lost the Dolphins during this span by 21, but I am sure this game stands out to many of you especially after the media sh!tstorm we have endured since the Jets game.

I believe it would be safe to assume, that had we not turned the ball over a combined 7 times in consecutive weeks to the Colts and Jets we very well could have ended up 14-2 last season with a bye and possibly playing the AFCC game at home. You could very easily come to the conclusion that a rash of turnovers mid-season, played a big role in not bringing home our 4th Belichick for the trophy case!

Again great post.