Tom Brady and the AFCCG

[ivanvamp]

Discounting 2000 and 2008 for obvious reasons, he's been in the league for 16 seasons. In those 16 seasons, he's been in the AFCCG 12 times. 75% of Tom Brady's seasons, he's played in the Conference Championship Game.

Think about that.

Here's how he's done, by year (2001 means the game was played in 2002, etc.)...

2001, at Pit (W, 24-17): 12-18, 115 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 84.3 rating
2003, vs Ind (W, 24-14): 22-37, 237 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 76.1 rating
2004, at Pit (W, 41-27): 14-21, 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 130.5 rating
2006, at Ind (L, 38-34): 21-34, 232 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 79.5 rating
2007, vs SD (W, 21-12): 22-33, 209 yds, 2 td, 3 int, 66.4 rating
2011, vs Bal (W, 23-20): 22-36, 239 yds, 0 td, 2 int, 57.5 rating
2012, vs Bal (L, 28-13): 29-54, 320 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 62.3 rating
2013, at Den (L, 26-16): 24-38, 277 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 93.9 rating
2014, vs Ind (W, 45-7): 23-35, 226 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.4 rating
2015, at Den (L, 20-18): 27-56, 310 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 56.4 rating
2016, vs Pit (W, 36-17): 32-42, 384 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 127.5 rating

So in 11 games so far, he's gone 7-4. In those games:

- The Pats have averaged 26.8 points.
- Brady has averaged 22.5 completions in 36.7 attempts (61.3%) for 250.5 yards.
- Brady has thrown 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
- Brady has an 81.9 rating.

Long story short: Brady hasn't been terrific in AFCCGs. Three of his last four he's had a really good rating, but on the whole, the AFCCG hasn't seen his best work. Given that they play a terrific pass defense on Sunday, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggled, even if the Patriots win.

 

[patsfan13]

Playing against 1 of the top4 teams in the league you can expect the going to be tougher.

Wonder what the QB ratings are for the QB's playing AGAINST the Patriots.

 

[Guts]

AFCCG always going to be tough no matter the opponent, but regardless of his stats no other QB I'd rather have than TB12 leading the troops

 

[ivanvamp]

In contrast, here's Brady's Super Bowl numbers:

2001, vs StL (W, 20-17): 16-27, 145 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 86.2 rating
2003, vs Car (W, 32-29): 32-48, 354 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.5 rating
2004, vs Phi (W, 24-21): 22-33, 236 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 110.2 rating
2007, vs NYG (L, 17-14): 29-48, 266 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 82.5 rating
2011, vs NYG (L, 21-17): 27-41, 276 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 91.1 rating
2014, vs Sea (W, 28-24): 37-50, 328 yds, 4 td, 2 int, 101.1 rating
2016, vs Atl (W, 34-28): 43-62, 466 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 95.2 rating

He's been SO much better, on the whole, in the Super Bowl than he has been in the AFCCG. His overall rating in AFCCG is 81.9. He's never had a passer rating in the Super Bowl less than 82.5.

So get through this game and I expect him to have a huge Super Bowl. The trick is getting through this game. History tells us he might struggle.

 

[tasmlab]

Considering he joined the team in his early twenties, it's possible that he's played in more AFC championship games than he has watched on TV.

 

[patsfan13]

If the Patriots win this week Brady will be 8-4 in AFCCG. Mid boggling if you think about it. that will be a 66.7% winning percentage.

Only 9 QB's in the history of the NFL have a higher winning %, for the regular season and playoffs

Otto Graham
Darryl Lamonica
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Peyton Manning
Terry Bradshaw
Russell Wilson
Jim McMahon
Ben Rothlesberger

All players pad their stats against reg season competition, not to mention ever getting there 12 times, which in itself is mind boggling.

 

[BelichickFan]

My gut feeling on the AFCCG numbers is the "Division Effect" where, although not in the same division generally, he's facing good defenses who have seen him a lot before. The bad games, Indy*2, SD, Bal*2, Den would mostly verify that although we don't seem to play SD too much. The SB, of course, is against teams that haven't seen him much before.

 

[PatsBoy12]

The TD/INT ratio is a bit surprising at first. This upcoming game could be reminiscent of some of the BMore games defensively, though those D's were superior.

 

[ivanvamp]

My gut feeling on the AFCCG numbers is the "Division Effect" where, although not in the same division generally, he's facing good defenses who have seen him a lot before. The bad games, Indy*2, SD, Bal*2, Den would mostly verify that although we don't seem to play SD too much. The SB, of course, is against teams that haven't seen him much before.

Interesting point. And their two SB losses were against the Giants, and in both of those years (2007, 2011), they played the Patriots in the regular season. There might be something to that.

Going through his playoff game log, here's his record in 37 games against teams he's playing for the first time that year, and then against teams he's played already before that year.

2001
1st time: 2-0 (Oak, Pit)
2nd time: 1-0 (StL)

2003
1st time: 1-0 (Car)
2nd time: 2-0 (Ten, Ind)

2004
1st time: 2-0 (Ind, Pit)
2nd time: 1-0 (Phi)

2005
2nd time: 0-1 (Den)

2006
1st time: 1-0 (SD)
2nd time: 0-1 (Ind)
3rd time: 1-0 (NYJ)

2007
1st time: 1-0 (Jax)
2nd time: 1-1 (SD win, NYG loss)

2009
2nd time: 0-1 (Bal)

2010
3rd time: 0-1 (NYJ)

2011
1st time: 1-0 (Bal)
2nd time: 1-1 (Den win, NYG loss)

2012
2nd time: 1-1 (Hou win, Bal loss)

2013
1st time: 1-0 (Ind)
2nd time: 0-1 (Den)

2014
1st time: 2-0 (Bal, Sea)
2nd time: 1-0 (Ind)

2015
1st time: 1-0 (KC)
2nd time: 0-1 (Den)

2016
1st time: 1-0 (Atl)
2nd time: 2-0 (Hou, Pit)

2017
1st time: 1-0 (Ten)

Total record against opponents they've played for the...

1st time: 14-0 (1.000)
2nd time: 11-8 (.579)
3rd time: 1-1 (.500)
2nd/3rd time: 12-9 (.571)

So yeah, they do struggle (relatively speaking...I mean, they're still more than 57% winning against these teams) against teams they're playing for the 2nd or 3rd time that year. Fortunately, looking at these numbers, their possible opponents (Jax, Phi, Min) are all teams that they haven't played yet this season.

 

[TennisBallHead]

15 TD and 12 INT? Yuck.

Good news, though. His only playoff losses are to teams he played earlier in the season. He's not losing to any of these clowns.