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Super in depth article on Bill's drafting history

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203Pat

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Spoiler alert: they haven't drafted well as of late. Not gonna lie the charts and stats are overwhelming.

It’s undeniable that Bill Belichick and the Patriots have recently had some lean yearsextracting value out of the draft, but not too long ago New England’s head coach was one of the best in the business at identifying young talent.

Over the last five years, the Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in value rate, a metric that represents team AV (approximate value, a Pro Football Reference metric) over total draft AV. The Patriots also rank 24th in value vs. expected rate.

The last 10 years paints a much more positive picture, however.

The Patriots rank 12th in value rate and 11th in value vs. expected rate when you add in 2011-2016.



 

RobertWeathers

Author of the Port Huron Statement
I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.
There were actually two QB succession plans.

1) Jimmy G but Tom outlasted him
2) Bill drafted Stidham.

Did you want Bill to spend $25m on Philip Rivers?
 

farn

Pro Bowl Player
I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.
Can you imagine how many franchises would love to get a « hosing » like this ? The Patriots were SB champs less than 24mo ago.

The drafting hasn’t been his best work - but he’s been brilliant in the past. Stolen picks, picks used to get vets, all that factors in as well.
 

amfootball

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Can you imagine how many franchises would love to get a « hosing » like this ? The Patriots were SB champs less than 24mo ago.

The drafting hasn’t been his best work - but he’s been brilliant in the past. Stolen picks, picks used to get vets, all that factors in as well.
No one is not recognizing the last 20 years but analyzing where we are today and why.
 

DropKickFlutie

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
In a huge coincidence they drafted very well from 2001-2004 (Pioli, Weiss) and 2009-2012 (Reese, O'Brien). In another huge coincidence Josh McDaniels wasn't here as coordinator those specific years (he was busy drafting Tim Tebow in the 1st round in Denver). In a final massive coincidence we have drafted terribly from 2013-now with Josh back and the John Carroll boys whispering moronic opinions to Belichick.
 
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Toofy

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
One great thing about Bill is he makes changes if things don't work something similar to half time adjustments when we have a sloppy first half. I think we did not make those changes in drafting as we were pretty successful. This is the first year where we truly flopped and looked terrible on the field. I am sure it has hit bills ego pretty hard .

So I am expecting Bill to make the second half adjustments i.e better offensive evaluation and not drafting DB in second round... so I hope to see some moves with our scouting department and the way we evaluate our offense...

considering mcdaniels was passed over for so many head coaching gigs, it probably raises a doubt in bills mind as well as to how good of an offense talent evaluator josh is.. we could be hopeful..

My wishlist for this season..

Stidham miraculously transforms into garopollo and remains our starter..

We have 2 pro bowlers - one in offense and defense
Both rookie TE have a 500 + yard season and jakobi meyers has a 1000 + yard season.
Our first two picks are home run and contribute immediately in their rookie year.

We are a 8-8 or above team for 2021 with significant cap available for 2022..

I know I am a bit greedy but hey, I did not wish for a post season.. just a strong base to build for a 2022 contending season..
 

BTTA

He/Him
PatsFans.com Supporter
I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.

I first read this as sarcasm. Guess not.

Let's first start with the fact that Bill doesn't have a relationship with "us" (whatever "us" is).
 

fnordcircle

The poster who James White said inspires him.
PatsFans.com Supporter
In a huge coincidence they drafted well from 2001-2004 and 2009-2012. In another huge coincidence Josh McDaniels wasn't here as coordinator those years. In a final massive coincidence we have drafted terribly from 2012-now with Josh back.

Jesus fucking Christ dude

Did Josh not invite you to the hotwife gangbang with Peyton Hillis or what?

I get not liking a particular coach, I really do, but at this point I'm thinking maybe Josh needs to take a restraining order out on you.
 

DarrylS

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2019 Weekly Picks Winner
No one is not recognizing the last 20 years but analyzing where we are today and why.

Lets see where we are tomorrow and the day after.. it never ceases to amaze me at how many fans want to discard BB after so much success...

I am one of the luckiest fans on earth to have rooted for this team for 50 years now, and despite a lot of frustration the past 20+ years make up for some mistakes..
 

farn

Pro Bowl Player
No one is not recognizing the last 20 years but analyzing where we are today and why.
Part of my point is « where we are today » is NOWHERE near the apocalyptic abyss so many fans here suggest... most teams cash in everything for one championship. They mortgage the future, they trade picks, they enter cap hell intentionally. Then, they bask in the SB win for years.

NE went from SB champ, to a « disappointing » 12-4 AFCE crown, to a « earth-shattering, Ming blowing » 7-9 when their HOF QB moved on and many vets opted out of a crazy season in the midst of a pandemic in the country with the highest % of deaths in the world...

7-9 isn’t the Titanic or Krakatoa... it’s a bad year with a QB who wasn’t able to pass. Let’s see how it goes. I don’t know « where we are » others than NE had a normal down year, something BB has made sure hasn’t happened in two decades.
 

jmt57

Moderator
Staff member
Yes, it is true that the Pats/BB have not drafted well the last few years.

Anybody not agreeing is in denial. Stolen draft picks didn't help, either.

It is also true that the the Pats/BB deviated from a previous roster management plan, for what they envisioned as the last couple of chances of a Super Bowl with Tom. Rather than stockpiling picks, trading down in a 2-for-1, trading into an earlier round next year - they instead used draft picks for short term veteran rentals that would might put them over the top. Trading draft picks for Josh Gordon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Trent Brown, Jason McCourty, James O'Shaughnessy, Brandin Cooks, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Barkevious Mingo, Martellus Bennett, Jonathan Casillas, Jon Bostic, etc. - those are all signs of a team in a win-now mode.

Based on the results of three conference championships and two super bowl victories, you can't argue with the results (especially considering how many were complaining about the need to go-for-it-now, the window is closing).

The Pats/BB did not foresee Brady continuing to play at an elite level at age 44. And why would they? Nobody in the history of pro sports had ever done so in the past.

Was the transition botched? Yep, absolutely. I have a couple of theories on that, but that's just speculation - and a separate topic.
 

Kontradiction

#1 Biggest Pats Fan
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Let’s see if my hypothesis holds water and they fare better this year without Caserio being the main voice in the room with him.
 

Lagaffe_07

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most teams cash in everything for one championship. They mortgage the future, they trade picks, they enter cap hell intentionally

We didn’t thought. Bill has been doing the same thing the last 5 years as he did for the first 15 years. The only difference is that he drafted poorly the last 5 years forcing him to overpay for mid level veteran.

Now that Brady isn’t there people start to analyze more in depth Bill’s action the last 5 years and what got us here. What got us here is a mismanagement of the roster and most importantly the QB position.
 

Lagaffe_07

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It is also true that the the Pats/BB deviated from a previous roster management plan, for what they envisioned as the last couple of chances of a Super Bowl with Tom. Rather than stockpiling picks, trading down in a 2-for-1, trading into an earlier round next year - they instead used draft picks for short term veteran rentals that would might put them over the top. Trading draft picks for Josh Gordon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Trent Brown, Jason McCourty, James O'Shaughnessy, Brandin Cooks, Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Barkevious Mingo, Martellus Bennett, Jonathan Casillas, Jon Bostic, etc. - those are all signs of a team in a win-now mode.
That is partially true. For starter we traded a pick for cooks but got a better one when we traded him the year after. For Trent Brown we traded a 4th and got a 5th back and 3 round compensatory pick when he left. We traded draft pick for players but more often than not we got picks back also.

Number of players picked by draft the last 10 years: (number of picks in the first 3 rounds)

2020: 10 (5)
2019: 10 (5)
2018: 9 (3)
2017: 4 (2)
2016: 9 (4)
2015: 11 (3)
2014: 9 (2)
2013: 7 (4)
2012: 7 (4)
2011: 9 (5)
2010: 12 (5)

Except of 2017 where we had 2 picks taken away, we drafted pretty much the same number of players. We didn’t picks 3 player by draft because we traded away our draft capital to get player.
 

Biffins

In the Starting Line-Up
I am glad this is being analyzed so the fan base can see that Bill was hosing us when he tried to use the success of the team as the reason for the poor roster. It has been his drafting and lack of any Qb succession plan.

Yeah Bill saying we screwed the cap to win is such frickin BS. As if Tom was being paid some crazy money to win. Reality is Top never got top dollar. And Bill whiffed badly in both draft and FA
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Let’s see if my hypothesis holds water and they fare better this year without Caserio being the main voice in the room with him.
I feel like I'm pretty fair overall. I hope it's not an overstatement when I feel like major changes need to be made if we're still hurting for WR/TE talent after 2021. I'm giving the team multiple years and there's talent coming from every direction. 2 years of loaded WR classes. This year's FA looks good.

I'm not basing it off one player or pick. Again trying to be as fair as possible but I remember saying this in the DF 3 years ago with only Edleman under contract at the time.
We'll see..
 
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