Game Day Thread SPECIAL GAMEDAY THREAD: Tampa takes on the Buggalo Billdos

[PP2]

My understanding is for most in regards to pain - there is no "minor" turf toe. It's a more minor body part, but from what I understand it's not easy to play with nor pain manage either.

Especially when you are a "mobile" QB.

Allen is now going to be an one-dimension QB for the time being. That's something to monitor.

 

[sb1]

My understanding is for most in regards to pain - there is no "minor" turf toe. It's a more minor body part, but from what I understand it's not easy to play with nor pain manage either.

Isn't that what Mahomes had in the playoffs last year?

 

[Sicilian]

Especially when you are a "mobile" QB.

Allen is now going to be an one-dimension QB for the time being. That's something to monitor.

Especially since it only takes one or two times in a game where he can't quite turn the corner on a defender to pick up a first down, and it changes the dynamics of the game so much. One or two more stops per game in the playoffs (if it lingers that long) can be a real problem.

 

[PScottman]

Isn't that what Mahomes had in the playoffs last year?

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

That will be $24 as a research fee. Never stated it was 100% debilitating, just that for most it is purported to be a hindrance.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates

Patrick Mahomes Injury History & Updates. Our injury data is so comprehensive, even NFL teams have paid for it. Our algorithm even predicts injuries

www.draftsharks.com

That will be $24 as a research fee. Never stated it was 100% debilitating, just that for most it is purported to be a hindrance.

Primetime had to retire because of it.

The infamous "high ankle sprain" is the other goodie.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Still grinning at this outcome.

Down goes Buffalo, Down goes Buffalo, Down goes Buffalo!

 

[slam]

Especially when you are a "mobile" QB.

Allen is now going to be an one-dimension QB for the time being. That's something to monitor.

Not just an occasionally mobile QB. The Bills didn't have a RB rushing attempt yesterday for the entire first half! Only passes and Josh Allen runs, pure insanity.

 

[Bill Lee]

Thanks. I agree, it shows Evans initiated the contact, and IMO he did it knowing it would draw a flag.

In my opinion, that was Allen's best game of his career. He led the comeback, played injured, and if his coach let him go for it on 4th and 2 instead of kick the field goal he might have won.

And if the refs didn't react to Evans's ploy...

Very strange game. Usually when Brady has a team down, he goes for the jugular. Today he went to sleep and it almost cost Tampa the game.

He's hard to figure. He can still have GOAT-level plays like the TD pass to Evans in the end zone just over the defender, and then he can have three 3-and-outs in a row. It does seem like he went to sleep for the second half where they only scored 3 points.

Strange game where Tampa wins the first half 24-3, Buffalo wins the second half 24-3, and in overtime both teams get their hands on the ball. In the end, I think it was only close because Tampa went with the high flying passing game and didn't do anything to wear Buffalo down so they were able to make the adjustments and come on strong in the second half.

Perhaps, but honestly I felt the game was more entertaining this way. Also it made the loss all the more painful as it DASHED the hopes of the Bills fans.

Think about it, the Bills actually won the coin flip and got the ball first in OT but as usual choked away the game. Meanwhile Brady went on an epic 94 yard drive, putting away the game with a DIME to Perriman and twisting the knife with his usual assassin-like precision in Overtime. There's no quarterback I'd rather have than TB12 in crunch time. And the Bills fans once again tasted DESPAIR and ultimately loss!

I'm sure some of the Bills fans will be consoled by the 'moral victory' but results are what matter in the end and this all but puts the nail in the coffin in the Bills chance of winning the AFC East. A result that is highly favorable for the Patriots as long as they stay on course. The Bills 1 year window has CLOSED!!

Seems no one can explain why he waited till OT to twist that knife.

Hey, he's getting older, maybe he needed that nap in the second half.

Buffalo's season rests on their game in Foxborough. I think it's unlikely they win, but if they do, the odds shift back to them for AFCE since I read that they'd have the tie breaker with us. Their three other games are quite winnable ( CAR, ATL, NYJ ).

Regardless of what happens, it's still very likely that both NE and BUF will be in the playoffs. You can play with the outcomes if you don't believe me:

How the Buffalo Bills Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 18

The Bills have a less than 1% chance to get a first-round bye.

www.nytimes.com

How the New England Patriots Can Make the Playoffs: Through Week 18

The Patriots have been eliminated from playoff contention.

www.nytimes.com

I agree with the idea that BUF's window is closing though. More closed than open. Losing to us shows they can't out-muscle tough teams. Losing to TPA shows they can't out-score high flying teams.

 

[Bill Lee]

In any case...

 

[Ivan]

You have to admit it, Bills fans knew they were in real trouble when Permian went WIDE RIGHT down the sideline.

 

[Bill Lee]

Tom should thank Mike Evans...

 

[Bill Lee]

Analytics sez:

The NGS Decision Guide strongly agreed with McDermott's decision to kick a field goal, favoring it by 3.4 percentage points in expected win-probability value. The Bills had a 53.6 percent chance of picking up the first down if they went for it, but a failed conversion would have ended the game in a Buffalo loss. Plus, even if the Bills had successfully converted, they were out of timeouts, meaning Josh Allen and Co. would have needed to rush to spike the ball and stop the clock, assuming they didn't score on the play. The upside of going for it was limited, given that the Bills would still only have a 73 percent win probability if the offense gained the necessary yards to gain without scoring, while the downside was a guaranteed loss.

Also says BUF's odds of winning were 5% at the half and as low as 2% early in the 4th quarter...

At halftime of this matchup, the Next Gen Stats win-probability model gave the Bills, who were trailing by 21 points on the road against a Bucs team that had won all five home games entering Sunday, a 5 percent chance of achieving victory -- and that mark dipped even lower (to 2 percent) early in the fourth quarter. Instead of slinking away, Buffalo stormed back, scoring 17 answered points in the last 10 minutes of regulation and sending the game into overtime with a last-minute field goal.'

NFL Week 14's biggest decisions: Bills right to kick for OT; 49ers, Bengals miss on fourth-down calls

Why were the Bills right to kick for overtime? How did playing it safe cost the 49ers and Bengals? The NGS team evaluates several of the biggest decisions from Week 14.

www.nfl.com

 

[Bill Lee]

BUF has a bad O-line and they can't run the ball, so it's all on Allen...

 

[Bill Lee]

 

[Kontradiction]

Analytics sez:



Also says BUF's odds of winning were 5% at the half and as low as 2% early in the 4th quarter...

NFL Week 14's biggest decisions: Bills right to kick for OT; 49ers, Bengals miss on fourth-down calls

Why were the Bills right to kick for overtime? How did playing it safe cost the 49ers and Bengals? The NGS team evaluates several of the biggest decisions from Week 14.

www.nfl.com

In pro sports, as a coach, you should do the exact opposite of what the analytics say. I legitimately cannot remember one big moment of one big game in which the analytics were right.

 

[Deus Irae]

In pro sports, as a coach, you should do the exact opposite of what the analytics say. I legitimately cannot remember one big moment of one big game in which the analytics were right.

Analytics is a great thing for helping a coach make informed decisions. Analytics is a godawful thing when it's being used without context.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Didn't have the best camera angle but there were 2 instances of RTP when the Bucs defender pushed Allen out of bounds that looked to me worse than the RTP penalty called against the Pats. In my view none should have been called as RTP with the QB as a runner.
No RTP in the Pats game and no 3 points by the bills likely.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

Didn't have the best camera angle but there were 2 instances of RTP when the Bucs defender pushed Allen out of bounds that looked to me worse than the RTP penalty called against the Pats. In my view none should have been called as RTP with the QB as a runner.
No RTP in the Pats game and no 3 points by the bills likely.

That mid-air slight shove being a flag is just embarrassing on the league. Training them to call pu*** calls like that makes the game look bad.

 

[Kontradiction]

Analytics is a great thing for helping a coach make informed decisions. Analytics is a godawful thing when it's being used without context.

That’s all statistics. The important context would be momentum, the fact that it was an away game, and who was on the other side of the field waiting for his chance on offense.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

BUF has a bad O-line and they can't run the ball, so it's all on Allen...

It's tough to consistently move forward and keep that arrow trending up as an NFL team. I think Ravens and Bills are great examples. Each have a top 10-12 QB, decent HC although I'm not a fan of Mcmuppett and have found a little success recently. Bills resemble a real life NFL team after 35 years and the Ravens are a better franchise than most.

Taking that next step is so tough for most teams. Whether it's recognizing you're only getting so far with a coach or QB. Going all in on the defense or a complementary part. QB injuries and regression. It's incredibly tough to make the right adjustments, little tinkering here and there. It's difficult bc you can't stay the same but change is hard when you've experienced success.

Just another reason to be thankful for the stability and staff we have here. Players > Coaches but coaching matters a lot when the margins are as thin as they are.
It's been the second biggest separator (Brady) we've had here.

Yea Buffalo has become too dependant on Allen and it shows. Not only from a scheme perspective but from a personal one too. You can see him put it all on his shoulders. That's incredibly hard to live up to consistently and give up as it's almost addicting

Few weeks ago ...
Allen is such a big part of that offense. Passing and rushing, his crazy arm and ability to extend plays. They'll rush for 110 and he'll have 53.
He's also improved on his footwork and decision making. He'd slow down a lot in pocket, feet would stop too often. He's improved there and again his decision making has improved. From reading coverage to simply taking what the defense is giving him. Not trying to force as much.
He's still raw in some areas and will make mistakes but he's improved a lot more than I thought he would. Roman and BD need to step their respected games up.

Some more thoughts on the Bills from the past two weeks below ...

Mentioned this in here or another thread but both Tennessee and Buffalo's OL/RB have been suspect, inconsistent for different reasons - much like ours in the early part of the year but their struggles continue -Buff against Jags, Colts, Mia & Tenn post DH. Now back to for different reasons. They actual seem similar to me but I'm not the smartest guy in the world. Both Allen & RT thrive off PA and for different reasons it isn't there.
Buffalo doesn't have the horses we have in Harris & Rham. They were counting on the duo of Singletary / Moss to be the identity of that team while Allen continued to soften some of his edges. Neither have shown any type of workhorse or plus runner ability. Especially breaking away from tackles around the first level of defense or breaking tackles in general. A lot of their running game is Allen tbh. You could also look at the OL more specifically the interior line. They simply don't create enough movement and the RB's can't make up for it on a good day. Never mind when guys are in the backfield. It's an inconsistent running game and the same could be said about their pass pro too. They struggle with manipulated pressure big time.

If you've watched them this year, sure they've put it together but have also struggled for entire games and sequences. They're not this world beater to me. Teams throw designed pressure, shell off up top and clog the MOF and it's working to a good degree. Their PA game isn't there to help Allen and the Bills really can't run the ball with any force or "will"

I mentioned their running game a few times. It's inconsistent along with their OL. They've struggled with manipulated pressure.

I think I thought 2hi was making a comeback in the last thread about thoughts I thunk. With some disguise it's been a great tool against Mahomes but teams have been using it against both these teams as well.

Allen and RT have been seeing a lot of 2hi looks, clogging the MOF. RT loves feasting off PA there with overs/crossers. Curious to see how we play both. They share similar qualities. Thrive off a lot of the same things. Big athletic dudes with an arm